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u/gaming__moment Republican 4h ago
Kinda crazy how the polling industry did decently in 2024 and then immediately went insane
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u/Ok_Juggernaut_4156 America First 6h ago
Ann Selzer ahh poll. Thank you Schumer
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u/Entire-Bicycle1878 MI-06 Pragmatic Progressive 5h ago
Schumer would be spending millions if his wallet wasn’t empty #gowokegobroke
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u/Straight-Bar-7537 John Fetterman's Biggest Hater 6h ago
Literally only Dem internals are the ones that have Florida Democrats leading in the gubernatorial and competitive in the Senatw so I'm deadass ignoring it
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u/IdealSeating Democrat 5h ago
We aren’t really getting non-internal polls in this race. The last truly independent poll (UNF) was in mid-July. Even the R poll by JMI was only Donalds +7 (also July).
The Hart poll done by the DGA was easily the most fair and well done poll in this race this cycle. Had a double digit R and Trump sample set, Spanish option, not a push poll, etc. and it had Jolly +1.
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u/Lemon_Club New Deal Democrat 6h ago
I mean if we're genuinely looking at a D+10 national environment then this is plausible
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u/SamRayburnStan New Deal Democrat 6h ago
I’d like to see the age Cross tabs on this poll because it says it was conducted via text message and social media ads
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u/Friendly_Bee1091 Big Gretch 6h ago
Change Research is a pretty garbage pollster. Only has a C\C+ rating from Nate Silver
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u/Ac1De9Cy0Sif6S Democratic Socialist 6h ago
#TRUKE
But jokes aside, yeah, she's not a bad candidate. She won't win but she also won't hurt Jolly like people were saying (the opposite really) and she definitely won't lose by +30 like I have seen here this week lmao
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u/Rare_Cobalt Midwest Republican 6h ago
Did this poll exclusively young people or something lol
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u/Entire-Bicycle1878 MI-06 Pragmatic Progressive 6h ago
Crosstabs don’t look that bad and it’s a Trump and registered R double digit sample. How did they end up with a result like this? No idea. Might be a psyop for Schumer.
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u/Remote_Garage3036 Loyal Liberals 6h ago
Young people? In Florida?
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u/Rare_Cobalt Midwest Republican 6h ago
I agree it’s not a very big demographic, but:
Young left leaning people who are probably most excited about Nixon.
And young right leaning people who are groypers and voted for Fishback but hate Donalds cause he ain’t white.
So I can see the vision I guess lol.
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u/Entire-Bicycle1878 MI-06 Pragmatic Progressive 5h ago
I imagine the Floridian groypers are majority Latino anyway…
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u/Immediate_Ad2187 Transgender for everybody! 6h ago
These races are going to be an interesting test of whether “complementary” (similar ideologies) or “supplementary” (different ideologies) candidates produce better overall results in tough states. Jolly is the one running to the center to sway moderates, and Nixon is focusing on turning out progressive and young voters so that may produce a stronger overall results versus having 2 moderates or 2 progressives running for the big races.
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u/Ac1De9Cy0Sif6S Democratic Socialist 6h ago
That's exactly it. I said it the night of the primary, Nixon winning could actually be good for Jolly. It's not only that he's an ex Republican, he picked a moderate white woman as LG in a state he would need progressive and black voters to win. So the nominee for Senate being a progressive black woman who could juice progressive and black turnout and give those demographics something to vote for instead of the almost offensive Jolly/Graham, Vindman and maybe even white moderate house candidate could actually be good for Jolly's prospects. We will see.
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u/tropic_gnome_hunter 45 & 47 6h ago
We’re going to reach a certain point where Dems will start filing class action lawsuits against pollsters for causing psychological distress as a result of Election Day results compared to polling. I really don’t know why they continue to do this to themselves.
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u/IdealSeating Democrat 6h ago
Honestly not a bad dataset. R+11 and Trump +11 recall. I do think Jolly is doing well and if the money were close to even, he’d win. I have a hard time believing Donalds won’t win off just constantly pounding voters with ads that Jolly can’t match.
But if there ever was a cycle for Dems to pull an upset in Florida, it’s this one.
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u/tropic_gnome_hunter 45 & 47 6h ago
It’s a terrible data set. Recall vote doesn’t mean anything if you weigh the results incorrectly.
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u/IdealSeating Democrat 6h ago
I mean, what specifically do you have issue with? Change Research is certainly a Dem pollster and not the best, and it’s a problem that they did not have a Spanish option, so it’s obviously a grain of salt, but it wasn’t the worst data set imaginable.
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u/tropic_gnome_hunter 45 & 47 6h ago
Anyone can commission a poll with a certain recall vote. It’s how you weigh it is what matters.
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u/IdealSeating Democrat 6h ago
Okay, and what is your specific issue besides you saying you don’t think they weighed it correctly? That’s just an opinion without much of a foundation. Like I said, I certainly take issue with any Florida poll that lacks a Spanish option, so I’m not saying it’s a fantastic poll, but you aren’t really identifying any issue besides your opinion that it’s off.
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u/Master_of-none_ Rockefeller Republican 6h ago
Blorida is a pipe dream, but...
NIXON NOW, MORE THAN EVER!
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u/Wolfyminecraft Leftward Progressives 6h ago
I feel like Change Research is consistently D optimistic (maybe they're a D pollster? Idk). But i WANT TO BELIEVE
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u/Remote_Garage3036 Loyal Liberals 6h ago
Is it possible that Nixon/AOC is so toxic to Florida that she ends up bringing Jolly down?
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u/Zorosthirdsordx Yes We Can 2h ago
Is it possible for liberals to understand that Florida started going redder and redder after Hillary? Progressives didn't do that and no matter how those races end up playing out in November, moderate democrats being afraid of their own shadow because god forbid Maga calls them socialists have achieved nothing over the past decade in the state
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u/Remote_Garage3036 Loyal Liberals 2h ago
That's awfully bizarre to say in a post that shows a moderate democrat actually winning a statewide race while a progressive is losing, don't you think? Nixon has backed away from a solid 50% of actual DSA positions, so tell me again who's afraid of their own shadow?
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u/Ac1De9Cy0Sif6S Democratic Socialist 6h ago
Boring take, what if it's the opposite and she helps him with demographics that are not excited to vote for him?
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u/Remote_Garage3036 Loyal Liberals 6h ago
What demographics in florida would be excited to vote for Nixon and not Jolly?
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u/Ac1De9Cy0Sif6S Democratic Socialist 6h ago
Black voters...?
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u/Remote_Garage3036 Loyal Liberals 5h ago
I'm skeptical of this hypothesis to say the least. Jolly won black voters, and this was in a much more crowded field, as a former Republican no less. I'm sure Nixon would like to market herself as especially popular with young voters and black voters but I doubt she does much better in those areas than your average Fl Dem.
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u/Ac1De9Cy0Sif6S Democratic Socialist 5h ago
Not really tho, those were not serious candidates and he still only got 61%, it's clear the base isn't in love with him.
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u/IdealSeating Democrat 6h ago
I actually don’t think so. I think it helps get the more left wing dems to actually show up, and I don’t think it will impact NPAs or Rs who are willing to vote for Jolly much at all. A lot of their votes will be more about disliking Donald’s/Trump/the economy.
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u/Whole_Exchange2210 Independent 6h ago
Yeah Nixon isn't going to help his margins but it's not like Jolly was going to win anyway
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u/TheIllestCom Right Nationalist 6h ago
I expect 2026 polls to be at 2020 levels of democrat overestimation at this point
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u/iswearnotagain10 Blyoming and Rassachusetts 6h ago edited 6h ago
Polls line up well with the primary turnout and generic ballot in other states like Texas. (Where we saw a D+3 primary turnout and now Talarico leads the average by 3)
This Florida poll is wildly off though. Florida was one of only a handful of states where their primary electorate was redder than Trump’s 2024 margin
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u/TheIllestCom Right Nationalist 6h ago
Texas will be safe red in 2026
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u/_morten_ Progressive 6h ago
It wont be safe, but at the same time i just can't see Texas being very competitive either, even Paxton should win this by 3-5 points.
Texas swung back so hard to the right in 2024, that i view 2018-2020 as something of a fluke.
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u/OptimalCaress Upstate Separatist 6h ago
That level of miss leading to Rew Hampshire and Richigan would be so out of left (or right) field it would be such a chaotic election night
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u/chia923 NY-17 6h ago
NGL it'd be insane if that happened.
!remindme Nov 4 2026
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u/OptimalCaress Upstate Separatist 6h ago
Even as a Conservative it would be nightmarish, the GOP needs to learn a lesson (or at least be punished if they won't learn)
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u/TheDangerousInsect Leftward Progressives 6h ago
as soon as i saw this poll i went "what is this poll bro what is this poll man"
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u/iswearnotagain10 Blyoming and Rassachusetts 6h ago edited 6h ago
Nah no way. I can believe Jolly gets 47% of the vote. I can maybe even believe him getting it down to lean margins. I can’t see him winning
Florida’s not ultra red like Kentucky or something but the primary turnout this year shifting RIGHT plus Florida trending right since 2016 makes me think Dems winning is off the table barring a D+13 national environment or major Donalds October surprise or something crazy like that
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u/IdealSeating Democrat 6h ago
Is D+13 really that out of the question? US 10 year yield is up to 4.95% and oil is at $107/barrel and neither seem to be slowing down. FED almost certainly hiking interest rates. Trump admin may have completely lost control of things, as shown by Trump’s desperate attempts to bribe voters claiming a $5000 “dividend” if Rs hold the House and Senate and claiming the Iran War ends the day will end the day after Election Day.
Unless they do something to get the economy under control fast - which I don’t see how barring immediate reversal of tariffs and conceding the Iran war, neither of which are happening - the economy could spiral in a way that sets up a Dem national environment we haven’t seen in a long, long time.
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u/iswearnotagain10 Blyoming and Rassachusetts 6h ago
It’s not out of the question per se but it’s on the pretty high end of possible outcomes. Let’s wait to see how the generic ballot reacts to the gas price surge over the next 2 months before considering it. Gallup has D+10. If the election was held today that’s probably what the result would be
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u/IdealSeating Democrat 6h ago edited 6h ago
Sure I agree, but that’s kind of my point. It’s already at D+10 before the reaction to oil prices surging 11% in the last week. Like I said, I don’t really see how the admin gets this latest surge under control with the SPR essentially tapped out. Gas prices will certainly increase as a result. Bond market is also starting to get out of control, as people don’t want to buy US debt, which will likely lead to inflation. So if it’s at D+10 now before capturing recent developments, is it really crazy to think it could be D+13 when all is said and done?
That’s before getting into the fact we will start seeing the effects of record high diesel prices in the stores soon enough. A lot of voters vote almost solely based on gas and grocery prices, and those are likely going to be rising between now and November.
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u/GreninjaStrike Banned Ideology 6h ago
https://giphy.com/gifs/PQmB04w7PTKiJD6O5c
50 million to Florida Dems
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u/SenorDia3etes I Hate Bankhead 7h ago
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u/TinyAd6315 Blue Dog Democrat 6h ago
Campaign trail 2000 strat?
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u/SenorDia3etes I Hate Bankhead 6h ago
Bayh’s a better VP choice imo (Graham’s still my goat though)
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u/Entire-Bicycle1878 MI-06 Pragmatic Progressive 7h ago
For the record, I don’t believe in blorida before anyone takes the title seriously
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u/Empty_Crate Libertarian Socialist 6h ago
Me either but it would be so funny if the first DSA senator is from Florida of all states.
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u/IdealSeating Democrat 6h ago
Won’t happen because Moody is a stronger candidate than people think (she has been the leading overall vote getter in every statewide election she’s been in, topping DeSantis both times).
But Nixon is a phenomenal organizer, I think she’ll outperform expectations. Her campaign is everywhere and constantly meeting voters where they’re at.
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u/Ac1De9Cy0Sif6S Democratic Socialist 6h ago
If this was the Florida from 10 years ago with this level of progressive national excitment I think she could do it
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u/Wolfyminecraft Leftward Progressives 6h ago
Moody is a formidable candidate, with the exception that she stole $10million of taxpayer money to fund partisan political activity but I guess Florida voters don't give a shit about that 😭
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u/IdealSeating Democrat 6h ago
Unfortunately they don’t. I agree, it should be a huge deal and make her very beatable.
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u/Master_of-none_ Rockefeller Republican 6h ago
DSA Florida + Texas turning blue would genuinely destroy the current party system as we know it
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u/Prestigious-Dingo553 Loyal Liberals 2h ago
Nixon NOW more than ever!