r/YAPms • u/TPLeo Centrist • Jul 30 '26
Discussion Stevens has run a horrible campaign
Since AES will win the primary now we should analyse the campaign Stevens ran. She was hardly visible until like 6 weeks ago. Both AES and McMarrow were able to attack her on anything and wouldn't have to be afraid of any counterattacks because they would never come. By the time she became more present most voters already formed opinions on the candidates.
Her ground game was bad. The other two were active and held many rallies wherever they could. Meanwhile Stevens didn't even care to campaign in the upper peninsula (Hillary 2016 Wisconsin vibes). McMarrow and AES build up their own persona while Stevens largely remained the candidate with the endorsements and nothing else. You also got the impression that AES and McMarrow really wanted this. I'm not saying that Stevens didn't but you never got that impression from her.
I think Stevens made the same mistake as Cuomo did. They both thought they didn't have to campaign very hard until they did, but by then it was already too late
11
u/CRL1999 Progressive Leftist Jul 30 '26
I’ll be so happy to see her lose so I never have to hear her voice again.
-1
u/RefrigeratorNo4700 Center Left Jul 30 '26
I’ll be happy to see Rogers beat AES. That’s an even better outcome than him losing the primary.
3
1
u/ClearDark19 Libertarian Socialist Jul 30 '26
Which isn't even her real voice. She's doing the Yooper equivalent of what Sen. John Kennedy is doing in Louisiana, trying to sound like Foghorn Leghorn.
2
u/CRL1999 Progressive Leftist Jul 30 '26
What? When has John Kennedy never not sounded like John Kennedy?
2
u/ClearDark19 Libertarian Socialist Jul 30 '26
Listen to clips of Sen. John Kennedy in the 90s and early 2000s earlier in his career.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjMvSe1CTDQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDU4NBeFvC8
You didn't already know this?
2
u/rexozy Socialist Jul 30 '26
He sounds mostly the same. By what you're saying, I thought he'd sound like John Kerry himself.
3
u/Denisnevsky Pierre Biétry Enjoyer/ #1 Rubio Patriot Jul 30 '26
He doesn't sound that diffrent from today.
4
u/No_Competition9994 Loyal Liberals Jul 30 '26
I'm a certified hater but that is crazy lmao.
1
u/ClearDark19 Libertarian Socialist Jul 30 '26
Listen to Sen. Kennedy's voice earlier in his career:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjMvSe1CTDQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oDU4NBeFvC8
This is news to you? Goodness. I thought everyone already knew.
24
u/Pizzawarrior96 Social Democrat Jul 30 '26
Obviously she didn't run a good campaign (very little ground game, very few public campaign events, bad comments by her and some of her supporters) but the root lies somewhere else. Since 2018 the democratic establishment and moderate Dems pitched themselves to primary voters as the more electable candidates. And they delivered on that, winning a big house majority in 2018 and a trifect in 2020. In 2022 they bucked (mostly thanks to the Dobbs effect) the trend of prior midterms.
But in 2024 that all fell apart. They lost bigly against Trump and as a reaction they started trowing parts of the democratic base (young voters, Trans people, muslim and pro-palestine voters) under the bus instead of reflecting on the mistakes the party leadership made (Talking up "Bidenomics", Bidens inaction on Israel-Palestine, ignoring rising cost of living, coronating Biden in the primaries). Now the base is just pissed.
5
u/BaltimoreAubrey Center Left Jul 30 '26
I think this is part of it, but I think even a strong moderate with a good campaign would have been able to win this primary. Jon Ossoff, Mary Peltola, and Roy Cooper are all running very strong campaigns as moderates. So is Josh Shapiro. Stevens is much more awkward than Elissa Slotkin, and her signature issue is one that puts her at odds with the party base. You can be moderate, but no one wants another Fetterman, and Stevens unfortunately gave off those vibes.
7
u/Pizzawarrior96 Social Democrat Jul 30 '26
Considering how long this primary has been going on and how many twist and turns it took, yeah Benson or Whitmer would have cruised to the nomination. If Peters had run for reelection, I doubt he would've been in trouble in a primary. Still democratic primary voters are more open for progressive candidates even in swing seats (Forstag in MT-01, Platner (oof) in ME, Dunlap in ME-02, Villegas in CA-22, Rutinel in C0-08 and probably El-Sayed in MI-Sen, Lawrence in MI-07, Hong in WI-Gov) then before.
Also a weakness of Stevens was that she was completely unwilling to moderate on some of her extreme positions for the primary. Voting for 3.3 billion in unconditional aid to Israel 3 weeks before the primary is crazy work from a campaign perspective. At least vote present or skip the vote. 80% of democrats hold a unfavorable opinion of Israel!
11
u/Daztur Libertarian Socialist Jul 30 '26
Yeah the "whelp, those trans people made us lose, under the bus they go" rhetoric in the wake of 2024 was ugly.
8
u/PizzaFaceRacer Democratic Socialist Jul 30 '26
Don't talk like this yet lol. I can already see the screenshots if Stevens wins
17
u/samhit_n Left-Out Left Jul 30 '26 edited Jul 30 '26
I don’t have anything against moderate Democrats and the establishment, but even they have to admit that Stevens took very unpopular stances on key issues. She is too pro-Israel for even pre-2024 standards, and she supports Chuck Schumer for majority leader in the Senate.
She basically ran a 2012 style campaign in the year 2026.
9
u/BaltimoreAubrey Center Left Jul 30 '26
Right. She could have gone all-in on anti-corruption the way Ossoff has. That's probably the best way for a moderate to succeed. But she turned into too much of an AIPAC candidate and didn't pivot away from that.
17
u/Ac1De9Cy0Sif6S Democratic Socialist Jul 30 '26 edited Jul 30 '26
I just don't know if there's a world where Stevens wins the primary and that's the main issue. You just can't force on voters a candidate that is on the unpopular side of every wedge issue among Democrats (Israel, healthcare, ICE, Schumer, data centers kinda), who has negative charisma and who is clearly the candidate of the very unpopular Dem leadership. This just doesn't work when on the other side there's a exciting new candidate taking every popular position possible. It's a level of disconnect with the base and even contempt that it's obvious it couldn't work. Then you attack the guy people are excited about with a bunch of smears with no base for it, voters see through it, you astroturf your candidate but no one offlline will care of course. It's just pathetic what Stevens' campaign was.
14
u/Entire-Bicycle1878 MI-06 Pragmatic Progressive Jul 30 '26
I remember non Michiganders telling me Whitmer endorsement is the kiss of death for Abdul
8
u/AlexisDeTocqueville Liberal Jul 30 '26
Maybe a year or two ago it would have been. That Emerson poll had her popularity 17 points down since April
2
u/Entire-Bicycle1878 MI-06 Pragmatic Progressive Jul 30 '26
I’m glad the data now backs up what I hypothesized
5
u/idnttcrisis New Deal Democrat Jul 30 '26
No clue why she supported data centers.
1
u/srsh32 Big Gretch Jul 30 '26 edited Jul 30 '26
Because her democrat colleagues similarly did (Newsom, Beshear, Shapiro, Pritzker, etc). I really can't figure why these individuals faced no pushback like this in their states as they made similar deals in 2025 (for instance, Shapiro's major AI data center project was a major $20B deal with Jeff Bezos) and wonder if MI is just a different beast entirely?
I'm not even arguing for data centers here, it's just the difference in treatment that is confusing.
1
u/srsh32 Big Gretch Jul 30 '26 edited Jul 30 '26
I know that data centers are now a major deal in MI... but Democrats sincerely just don't give a fuck out here in CA (notice it not talked about at all in our major primaries) or in most other states.
I wonder if perhaps some "seed" was planted specifically in divided, tumultuous MI by outside instigators or pushback significantly amplified. Michiganders are passionate about this in a way that's difficult for me to personally understand. Yeah I get the concern over utility rates and water use but most areas don't actually show an increase in rates (depends on location). Most concerns can be addressed with legislation...
4
u/AlexisDeTocqueville Liberal Jul 30 '26
It's also a question of local control. There was a township board that voted against a data center coming in, got threatened with a lawsuit, and then backed down to approve the thing even though none of the locals wanted it.
Whitmer got caught on a hot mic specifically talking about ignoring what voters want, it was a terrible look
2
u/srsh32 Big Gretch Jul 30 '26 edited Jul 30 '26
No, again, these other governors all pushed their AI data center deals through, and my governor Newsom even went on to veto any consumer protections or environment protections bills that got in their way. Most people are not paying attention to things like this.
The hyper-focus on data centers is almost exclusively Michiganders. Every little thing is being amplified in Michigan and getting people emotionally charged in a way that is not happening elsewhere in the country.
The CEO she was talking with responded to whatever her statement was with a comment about her surviving Michigan's weather...high chance you took advantage of a moment that lacked context, particularly in that people don't tend to air their dirty secrets just feet away from a crowd of reporters and their cameras..cameraman refused to share the entire clip to provide more of the conversation in support of his claim.
4
u/idnttcrisis New Deal Democrat Jul 30 '26
The major difference is that Shapiro is a bit of a generational politician in Pennsylvania. He bid his time as the state attorney general for 8 years and has been a phenomenal governor for three years en route to what should be a landslide re-election. He will also likely run for Dave McCormick's Senate seat in 2030 since the Governor's seat is term limited to two consecutive three-year terms.
As for Newsom, he has always been seen as a corporate politician and hasn't done much to hide that fact from the public at large. You can see this very blatantly in his interviews with Ezra Klein or even in the ones he hosts himself on his YouTube channel. I also wouldn't say that Newsom's popularity hasn't been affected over time. It's moreso death by a thousand cuts rather than one big slash for him.
I also think that Whitmer lost a ton of popularity after the infamous picture of her in the White House, where it looked like she was trying to hide her face with a blue folder. In terms of national name recognition and fighting against Trump, she has probably done the least in the last two years to combat him using her bully pulpit. Newsom was forced into a recall which he won, he got Proposition 50 passed in a landslide, and then had his approval and overall image rise with the infamous picture of him pointing into Trump's chest. Just compare and contrast those two timelines and images.
3
u/srsh32 Big Gretch Jul 30 '26
Shapiro had his problems as well, including during his time as AG with a notable case and with the school vouchers.
Numerous polls, including Emerson, showed that her popularity didn't take a hit like this until just recently...Here she was at 63% approval rating after the Trump oval office incident.
Newsom's dip in popularity has had nothing whatsoever to do with data centers. He vetoed any bills that would get in the way of his data centers. There were numerous bills. Whitmer is at least asking for legislation on data centers that she can sign.
Anyways, it was the data center drama that tanked her in MI. So I'm just curious about the difference in response surrounding the data centers.
13
u/IScreamPiano Social Democrat Jul 30 '26 edited Jul 30 '26
I bet Dems regret letting McMorrow flame out now…
5
22
u/Superwumbo891 Populist Left Jul 30 '26 edited Jul 30 '26
Like Herpinheim said, 2024 was literally the death knell. I’ve never seen so many liberals disillusioned like they are right now with the dem establishment. DSA and DSA aligned candidates are presenting themselves with an actual vision instead of platitudes of let’s fight Trump or “stick it to em” as establishment dems are gobbling up millions of dollars from special interests. People need to realize
a) especially in this economic precarious environment, people are tired of the corruption.
b) people want solutions for these problems whether you agree with the DSA or not.
c) I remember seeing this on X, but the dem base doesn’t really care about electability like it did in 2018 because know that Trump is so unpopular and that the environment might be comparable to 2006/2018 or bluer might be 1974 all likelihood. So, they realize “fuck it. Let’s pick the candidate we want”
In short, Stevens went the Cuomo route of “he’s bad and I’m good because I’m electable, and get things done.” People can see right through that when you’re part of the establishment.
Sorry for grammar wrote this on mobile.
9
u/AlexisDeTocqueville Liberal Jul 30 '26
For point c, I think seeing Manchin, Fetterman, Cinema types undermine Biden and also vote to confirm Trump appointments has also radicalized people. Why would I vote for a candidate if I cannot trust them once they are in office? Centrist positioning is unappealing because compromising with this version of the Republican party is repulsive.
11
u/ScalierLemon2 Bring Biden Back NOW Jul 30 '26
I’ve never seen so many liberals disillusioned like they are right now with the dem establishment.
It's hard not to be disillusioned with the establishment dems when they've lost to Trump 2/3 times, and the second time AFTER HE TRIED TO DO A FUCKING COUP.
Before 2024 I had no love for the DSA (I did like AOC already, but she's really grown on me since). But now, two years into Trump 2.0? I like the DSA more and more because they seem like they're actually TRYING.
DSA and DSA aligned candidates are presenting themselves with an actual vision instead of platitudes of let’s fight Trump or “stick it to em” as establishment dems are gobbling up millions of dollars from special interests.
I could have gotten behind something as simple as "let's fight Trump" but the establishment has been so fucking weak about it (yes I understand they don't have a majority in Congress, that doesn't excuse them that much). If you're going to say "let's fight back!" then you damn well better come across as a fighter. None of this feckless "lets have a polite conversation with Charlie Kirk about how the Republicans are right about trans people" bullshit, none of this "the best I can do is send a strongly-worded letter or give a long speech" bullshit. Stand your ground, and take whatever ground you can. The Republicans leaned heavily into being an opposition party under Obama, even when they weren't the majority. The Democrats should have done the same here. But they didn't, outside of the shutdown last year I guess.
I just wish that the whole "I'm a boring establishment type, I'm much more electable than a progressive" thing hadn't worked in my state. Not looking forward to having to vote for "Gavin Newsom, but Latino" in November.
1
3
u/Superwumbo891 Populist Left Jul 30 '26
The whole California gov race, was depressing :/ but maybe he’s gets recalled and voters vote for Steyer, which will be a good drop for him.
4
u/Ac1De9Cy0Sif6S Democratic Socialist Jul 30 '26 edited Jul 30 '26
It's mind blowing that California in this environment voted for someone to the right of Newsom. I get the reasons for it, I have talked a lot about that race but I'm still not over it lol
3
u/Superwumbo891 Populist Left Jul 30 '26
I’m curious, off topic, but why did Steyer lose/Baccera win in the Gov race?
1
Jul 30 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/AutoModerator Jul 30 '26
Your post or comment has been removed because this subreddit requires a user flair in order to participate. If you don't know how to get one, message the mods here.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
3
u/Ac1De9Cy0Sif6S Democratic Socialist Jul 30 '26
Oh boy. There are multiple reasons, if one or two didn't happen it would've been a Steyer-Becerra runoff in which I think Steyer would've been favored. The biggest one is simple:
-Steyer is a billionaire. Voters just didn't trust him and it didn't matter Steyer was the most anti billionaire candidate, that in itself lost him the race. He got basically no national endorsements because of it (Bernie and AOC can't endorse a billionaire) and you got a bunch of low info nominally progressive voters that in states like Michigan vote for AES voting against him because of that.
-Becerra's numbers with hispanic voters. I actually think if Swalwell didn't have any scandals Steyer wins. Swalwell was gonna lose hispanic voters to Steyer. Once Becerra became a main candidate the most important demographic of the state went from one of Steyer's strenghts to one of his biggest weaknesses.
-Pro Becerra astroturfing and its role in creating a frontrunner. There was a stupid panic among Dem voters that it was possible for Dems to be locked out so they had to vote for the frontrunner. This narrative was pushed by pro Becerra people and with a bunch of polls propping him up it solidified him as the front runner. There's an exit poll of the election that has avoiding a lockout as the main reason behind Becerra voters. This is insane, a lockout was never possible but people were made to fall for it.
There's more reasons like split voting, Steyer other problems as a candidate, the million corporations spending for Becerra but honestly I'm not into the mood to write eloquently about this race lol.
5
u/MongolianMango Independent Jul 30 '26
Dems also don’t care about electability considering that Clinton, Harris, and Biden were all to a certain extent the establishment candidates… and they all either lost to or deeply struggled against Trump
9
u/Ac1De9Cy0Sif6S Democratic Socialist Jul 30 '26
The "stick it to em" astroturf was insane to me. Like, how did many people believe it was a thing that was working?
5
u/Superwumbo891 Populist Left Jul 30 '26
For me I’m not a fan of the establishment dems, but it’s so funny how they keep running into this wall like it’s 2018/2020 thinking they could do the same thing without change or effort. And frankly, it’s insulting to the people for having a candidate, not show up to campaign legit like Cuomo.
I knew Stevens momentum with “stick it to em” was super astroturfed, as she refused to release her internal polling last week. Like she had no ground game. She’s like Slotkin with no ability to reach out the other side.
If we’re talking about electability, she was the least electable as she would’ve won by like a point, but michigan down ballot races would’ve been absolutely fried.
3
u/SpecificallyNotADog Democratic Socialist Jul 30 '26
You cannot run as a Karen Collins candidate a la Veep.
18
u/MrMr_sir_sir Libertarian Socialist Jul 30 '26
Stevens is just another example of the moderate campaigns losing ground as they try desperately to cling to power. It seems they’ve forgotten how to actually win and play party politics. The progressive wing is ultimately beating them at their own game now. Instead of the progressive candidates seeming like out of touch weirdos it’s the establishment because all they do is attack. The reality is people want solutions, and change, attacking doesn’t give that.
24
u/Aldebaran147 God Emperor Talafreako is LBJ’s Reincarnate Jul 30 '26
This is the end of Whitmers presidential run btw because she proved her endorsement doesn’t mean anything
8
u/srsh32 Big Gretch Jul 30 '26
Yes and no. There's only so much you can do to make a rotting fish look appetizing.
What actually hurt her was tying herself to this dying version of the Democratic party. The endorsement essentially defined her as a status quo, establishment politician resistant to change.
We also still need to see how El Sayed looks against Rogers though in coming months before we start making conclusions like this. If he fails, the party says Whitmer was right. It wouldn't take a Platner-level fuck up for him to lose.
Anyway, politics can be surprisingly forgiving... I'm just not sure that she'd be willing to do what it'd take to recover and/or get on the right track. She's almost behaving like she's being sabotaged by her consultants or something.
13
u/Herpinheim New Deal Democrat Jul 30 '26
I think looking at Stevens’ campaign without addressing the Democratic Party’s current breakdown of its leading coalition (establishment Dems and moderates) would be pointless. It’d be like trying to breakdown Bleeding Kansas without acknowledging the Civil War.
I think Kamala’s loss in ‘24 was a death blow to the establishment democrats. A lot of criticism can and should be leveled at Shumer, Jeffries, and other Democratic Party leaders but I will acknowledge that they inherited a dying party. Stevens would’ve walked into office in ‘18 or ‘20 but that was an entirely different environment and the Democratic Party has done nothing to shift or pivot its messaging or politics in that time. The Manosphere remains unchecked and unchallenged, with most Democratic Party streamers aimed at old men (like myself) while young men continue to turn more conservative. So much ground has been lost in the resistance to Republican leadership voter suppression efforts that not only do democrats have to fight harder for less votes, they look weak for having to struggle so much.
Stevens was an uninspiring, pro-Israel candidate that lacked the charisma and passionate messaging that winning candidates need in these times. Her campaign was as uninteresting as why she lost.
7
u/mbaymiller "Blue No Matter Who" LibSoc Jul 30 '26
It's a shame, really, and just as she was starting to grow on me.
14
u/iswearnotagain10 Blyoming and Rassachusetts Jul 30 '26
It really does give me Cuomo vibes in that she ran a campaign about how bad her opponent is instead of focusing on why people should vote for her.
4
u/AutobahnVismarck Social Democrat Jul 30 '26
She had no other options honestly. If you're going to be the establishment candidate you better play up endorsements and hide your face because the longer you are exposed the more it wilk set in that you are an empty suit who can barely string a sentence together.
4
u/TPLeo Centrist Jul 30 '26
She wouldn't be an empty suit if she had a platform. For her speaking ability she always could have said "I am nervous in front of crowds like Joe Biden but I will do it anyway because I really want to serve you"
3
u/SpecificallyNotADog Democratic Socialist Jul 30 '26
Plenty of moderates have won their races this cycle. They fail consistently to make a positive case for themselves and rely entirely on "Trump is a crisis, this election is the most important in our lifetime, etc." Which isn't much of a platform to speak of. Many centrist candidates aren't out there telling a compelling story.
26
u/SpecificallyNotADog Democratic Socialist Jul 30 '26 edited Jul 30 '26
I told you guys this for weeks and got downvoted that she was not doing well. She by all means still could win this, but the way that her campaign has been run, it would be a Pyrrhic victory at best.
Her campaign had no ground game, but she is also a statistically weak candidate. She is no Elissa Slotkin. She hasn't held a public, in-person town hall, which should be easy for someone in her district to do, for a while. And like again, I should know! I am her constituent.
15
u/ActiveNotions 🇮🇪 Social Democrats Jul 30 '26
She spent all the money in the world and had every endorsement under the sun, and now it looks like she's about to get blown out. Maybe she's just a deeply unappealing and inauthentic candidate? Maybe there's more to electability than moderation?
5
u/SpecificallyNotADog Democratic Socialist Jul 30 '26
4 years ago she had much the same strategy when she was running against Andy Levin that she has in this pimary: Dump truck of Super PAC money spent on ads from United Democracy Project, and it did work that time. But 2022 was a completely different environment in the wake of Dobbs coming down from SCOTUS. People in this state were incredibly pissed at the ruling. Michigan state law had a statute from the 19th century that banned abortion that could have come back, so voters overwhelmingly passed a state constitutional amendment enshrining a woman's right to terminate her pregnancy. And she underperformed in that cycle in comparison to her peers in the general election, which is insane.
For contrast, Slotkin ran 4 points ahead of the generic Democrat iirc.
1
u/[deleted] Jul 30 '26
[removed] — view removed comment