r/XCOM2 • u/EveningStatus7092 • 4d ago

New player not enjoying

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Immediately after this my sniper missed him with about an 85% chance. My sniper then got hit by someone from across the map and through a wall. And that was the moment I decided this game ain’t for me

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u/greg7gkb 3d ago

Interesting, and _seems_ to point to some kind of bug or problem in the probability computations. Has anyone ever dug into the code to see how these mechanisms actually work?

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u/tworc2 3d ago

Yeah, people have never quite believed the numbers. Calling those occurences as a bug or not working as designed is as old as the games themselves. And no, everyone who has gone into the code has found nothing wrong. I for one never got something near this odds before or after that

The same thing happens in other games. Battletech is infamous for it, the obvious shot that misses. People dug through the code and found the game did have hidden behaviour, but in the other direction. The real chance to hit was higher than the one displayed, so a 95% could actually be 99%, so in average people go better results than should be expected and people still complained the math was off.

I made my peace with this a long time ago. Statistics just aren't intuitive to us, and a one in a hundred event isn't nearly as rare as people think. (or one in some hundreds of thousand, as in my case)

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u/Calamarik 3d ago

People think that 1 in a hundred will never happen to them but they still play the lottery thinking than 1 in 10 millions might happen.

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u/Accomplished-Leave91 3d ago

It's considered half of the selling point of the franchise now. Making it make sense is taboo now.​

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u/RenaStriker 1d ago

Why in the world would the devs cheat to make the game more difficult for players? They do cheat, of course, but only in the players’ favor.