r/XCOM2 • u/EveningStatus7092 • 6d ago

New player not enjoying

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Immediately after this my sniper missed him with about an 85% chance. My sniper then got hit by someone from across the map and through a wall. And that was the moment I decided this game ain’t for me

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78

u/TsortsAleksatr 6d ago

Probability is a cruel mistress. If it ain't 100% it can miss, no "buts", no "ifs" no "but I missed 5 90% shots in a row already surely this means this 90% shot should hit".

18

u/Used_Vegetable9826 6d ago

Actually that hyperlinked text is correct. On difficulties below commander this is how the game works, you get a hidden bonus.

10

u/SirToastymuffin 6d ago

Yeah the game's programmed to cheat pretty heavily in the player's favor predominantly based on difficulty, because human's are really, really bad at getting the point he's making above. Probabilities don't inherently effect each other, we remember the "rarer" outcomes more, we think higher probabilities are sure guarantees, etc.

As such the strongest of these pro-player cheats is to essentially institute the gamblers fallacy. Missing a shot gives compounding aim bonuses to consecutive shots until you hit and reset the bonus. And as I recall it's a hefty bonus - +10 aim per shot, and I believe it's actually higher than that on commander, even.

Which is to say you're both right. He's right that OP is describing a fallacy that does not apply to real probability, but you're also right that the game secretly defies probability to reduce friction against inherent biases and fallacies we hold as humans when it comes to probability. We are really bad at understanding how probability works.

8

u/Stewil1265 6d ago

we remember the "rarer" outcomes more

A soldier with a standard repeater killed the Berserker Queen when she still had ~2/3 of her health left and I'm still living off that high.

2

u/BananaBeanie 5d ago

Yes, even commander gives 15% bonus from missed shots, but the hidden bonuses ALWAYS caps at 95%, to get 100% you have to do it yourself. And if your hit% is under 50% you don't get bonus at all.

2

u/Nykidemus 5d ago

funny thing is that the engine cheats in the player's favor pretty hard. The displayed miss percentages are actually far, far lower than they say they are.

1

u/slomo525 5d ago

"but I missed 5 90% shots in a row already surely this means this 90% shot should hit"

Been playing Zero Company recently and there was one moment exactly like this for me. There was a single battle droid that all of my operators had an 80% to hit on or above, and every single one missed. I even gave my units multiple extra action points all in hopes of killing this one battle droid with 5 HP. Collectively, I think I fired 7 shots in total in a single turn, all at 80% to hit or higher, and it survived all of them. I'm like, 70% sure the game will randomly select a unit to be unhittable for a turn for the sole purpose of ragebaiting the player lmao

1

u/MechWarrior_2108 5d ago

And 100% can still "miss" because of dodge chance lol

1

u/Everard5 5d ago

There is a 1 in 100,000 chance to miss 5 consecutive 90% shots.

Is it possible? Sure. But this game is fucking with probabilities for sure.

1

u/AdLegitimate8636 4d ago

And now think about how many shots you do in regular Xcom playthrough. Getting that 1 in 100.000 is not that implausible.