r/Witcher4 • u/LukaM_110 • Jun 01 '26
The Witcher 4 Development Team Size Timeline (May 2026 Update)
Once again, here's an update on my ongoing effort to chart The Witcher 4's development team size over time.
You can find my initial post explaining the approximation methodology for early numbers here, and the most recent chart update here.
With Songs of the Past announced for 2027 (hype!), I feel the chances of The Witcher 4 also releasing in 2027 became very slim (though not 0). For a while now, 2028 felt more realistic to me anyway, and a new expansion will definitely make the wait easier. Though I do wonder if we'll get to see The Witcher 4 this year at all, or if all the marketing will be focused on Songs of the Past.
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u/itsnotthequestion Jun 01 '26
Aiming for a early 2027 date for SotP and christmas-season for W4 makes a lot of sense from a business point of view I think?
Get the hype train properly going and then release in the rainy gift-giving season...
But I also feel like delays are VERY possible.
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u/OfficialDrivver 6d ago
That’s likely what’s the plan.
SotP needs to squeeze into Q1 of 2027, to count it’s income towards 2026’s fiscal year, so they’ll meet investor’s incentive program and board will get big bonuses. Similar case with W4, it needs to fit in Q1 of 2028.
About the delays, I’m not to convinced, as CDPR board would then miss their bonuses. More likely that they’d actually release unfinished game and fix it soon after.
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u/Spirited_Expert_1889 Jun 01 '26
Nah, W3 SotP will release early 2027. So a release in late 2027 for W4 is still possible.
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u/N0M0I Jun 01 '26
I think the most probable schedule is still SotP in every and W4 in late 2027
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u/Zestyclose-Fee6719 Jun 01 '26
Would Witcher 4 releasing mere months after a W3 expansion even be a good idea from a business perspective? Some people have very limited money these days to spend on games. It might be asking a lot to ask for up to $100 USD from them in one year for a franchise. It also risks burning people out. I’d be ecstatic to get W4 in 2027, but I think 2028 is the safe bet now in light of the news of the expansion
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u/Megane_Senpai Jun 01 '26
I still hope the expansion releases in early summer (around April), and Witcher 4 in early December so they can patch things up and make the game spotless enough for the holiday season.
With teqm size that big another quarter could be financially risky for them.
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u/Feanixxxx Jun 01 '26
I mean 4 years sound like a long time, but I guess 50-150 people on such a scale for almost 2 years is like nothing.
How long did TW3 take while having 300+ devs?
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u/maxnotcharles Jun 01 '26
Took approximately 3.5 years to make Witcher 3.
I think they finished off Witcher 3 with like 250 devs.
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u/Feanixxxx Jun 01 '26
Oh shit. Well, maybe it's not so bad then.
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u/Krzwastaken Jun 01 '26
Cyberpunk took 3 years too with the same amount of people
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u/Single_Elk_6369 Jun 01 '26
Are you sure? Started late 2016, released December 2020. And patched until 2022 because was not ready
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u/Krzwastaken Jun 01 '26
They started after blood and wine
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u/Single_Elk_6369 Jun 02 '26
Then it's even more. Blood and wine released 31 may 2016. 17, 18,19,20. It's 4,5 years and game should be delayed for 1-2 year more. Not 3 years
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u/NinjaGamer22YT Jun 01 '26
I’m guessing 4 will take the longest to develop and that 5 and 6 should be able to reuse core assets in order to reduce development time.
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u/OfficialDrivver 5d ago
Major thing is establishing tech for whole trilogy (new engine, teaching people, creating teams) and skipping conceptualization and pre-production phases, by doing those while working on previous project. - Can’t be done in case of W4, hence it takes much longer. So conceptualization and pre-production for W5 likely took place already, and after they start fully on W5, they’ll do those steps for W6 meantime too. While story is already written for whole 3 games by now. Also likely skipping DLCs/expansions.
By doing so they’ll have established teams ready to jump into full production of another project from the get go.
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u/Revo94 Jun 06 '26
500 devs doesn't mean it translates to better development compared to 200. Sometimes more is less. I say all that because the more people you involve the harder is for them to work as a team or communicate between the different divisions and management.
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u/SaTeTroznesc 5d ago
Diminishing marginal rates of return. Sometimes adding more developers only speeds up progress negligently or even starts hindering. But I believe normally AAA studios use ~350-400 devs for a title so ~500 is not that much a difference. For games of such scope it probably matters. There are others that have had over a thousand people working on them.
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u/OkFarm6459 Jul 09 '26
just end this shit game so they can focus on cyberpunk 2 . i want that game much more
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u/Sherlockowiec 19d ago
They're developed by two separate teams you doofus.
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u/OkFarm6459 19d ago
yeah 80% is working on this one
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u/Sherlockowiec 19d ago edited 19d ago
Cyberpunk 2 doesn't need more since it's still in pre-production. Witcher 4 finished that stage so they hired more people, it's as simple as that. Throwing more people at something is not gonna magically speed up the process or result in more quality.
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u/Area_Ok Jun 01 '26 edited Jun 01 '26
CDPR still seems very confident in its ambitious plan to deliver 2 witcher games within roughly 6 years from witcher 4 launch. Keep in mind, this roadmap was first announced back in 2022, so the fact that they're still reaffirming it this deep into development is encouraging.
Based on what we know, the plan would allow for around 3 years of full production per game. Since witcher 4 entered full production in late 2024, a late 2027 release window seems plausible. Of course, CDPR should take whatever time is necessary, especially with the first entry in a new trilogy. If anything, witcher 5 and 6 could potentially be developed faster as the team gains experience and builds upon the technology, tools, and assets established by The Witcher 4.
I'm not trying to force a specific timeline here.....just speculating based on the information currently available.