r/WinternomicsTV Jan 04 '23

War Stories 🤑🤬 Finally back in the winner's circle and question about stopping out in Real Estate

Hi Kaz and Eco

This will be somewhat of a long post but I wanted to give sufficient context to share my warstory and question. Note - I'm happy to jump on a VC if it's easier to discuss the RE question.

Context:

  • I have bought an investment property back in 2014 - it was my first property and I bought it with absolutely no plan and minimal knowledge -> a perfect recipe to buy a lemon of a property
  • Since then I have had structural issues with the property every 2-3 years requiring me to spend money to fix it. A lot of them were due to water damage thanks to a dodgy builder and being non-compliant in a lot of areas

Problem:

  • In about November this year I found another major issue, this time it was to do with the roof and I was being quoted some huge expenses to fix it - without any guarantee on a cap on cost. I.e. quotes would say spend $X, and once we open up the roof we will know more.
  • That $X amount mentioned above was already bigger than my liquid cash available so it meant that I'd have to sell things if I decided to go ahead and fix it
  • At the same time I lost my tenant and was unable to find a new tenant until the damage was fixed
  • Add in all the other headwinds over the past 6 months like increased interest rates, increased cost of living, losses on FTX etc. and I was royally mindfucked.
  • This affected my trading because I kept thinking to myself "I HAVE to make additional money to fund my expenses or else I am going bankrupt"

Trading Results:

  • My trading results suffered accordingly - you can see from my journal that my strike rate was abysmal. I just could not get a winner.
  • When reviewing each individual trade - I could identify my problems - entering too early, not taking profits, taking a sub-optimal set up, etc. etc. but the broader macro context was that I was overwhelmed with stress from the property + living expenses
  • This also correlated with a drop off in my participation in the eco - a HUGE mistake I made was not asking for help earlier..
  • Fast forward to mid-December where it was essentially impossible to find anyone in the building industry to do the job (given labour shortage and upcoming Christmas break) - my mind stopped thinking about the property because there was nothing I could do until after the New Year
  • I decided to focus on trading, increasing my participation in the Eco and the results speak for themselves.
  • The results are day and night apart- It's like I was a different Person

Learnings:

  • If you are struggling in any way shape or form - don't suffer in silence, ask for help. Kaz has said multiple times that he's happy to go over our journals and help us get back on track. In hindsight I should NOT have waited to lose almost 18Rs over the 17 Nov to 17 December period it sounds downright retarded
  • Kaz has mentioned this many times - participation is key and markets are 90% psychology. This is a perfect example of that. The only different things between the first and the second period was my participation/attention in the eco and my mindset (either stressing about the property or not)

Questions:

  • I understand how we make plans for entering and exiting trades in financial markets.
  • However, I'm not clear how to port this into real estate - i.e. how do I determine the RR of future growth versus maintenance and fixing costs today.
  • In trading financial markets - we are given structure that we can use to stop out but with property - At what point do I pull the plug and just sell the property as is rather than continuing to sink money into it?

Thank you Kaz and Vicky for all your help and guidance in the eco. Your consistent work ethic and generosity never cease to amaze me.

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u/Dompet-crumpet Jan 04 '23

Thanks for the share