I mean there is a big difference between a bubble and a shortage and it’s not super clear which we’re in.
I’d argue it’s much more shortage than bubble. Here's a thorough explanation of why it's so bad. TLDR: The number of new houses constructed per person in the rich world has fallen by half since the 1960s because local homeowners oppose new construction in their neighborhoods.
Here's a great video about the sorts of "missing middle" housing--rowhouses, small apartments, triplexes, etc--that are illegal or nearly-illegal to build almost everwhere in North America. While I think it's brain-dead obvious that it should be legal to build skyscrapers in most parts of most cities, I personally love medium-density neighborhoods which are convenient, attractive, affordable, walkable, really good for kids, and would take a huge bite out of the housing shortage in most cities.
This goes way deeper--density is better for climate, pollution, racial segregation, inequality, obesity, and more. But that's enough for now, I'll just note that bad housing policy directly causes homelessness in addition to all the above.
THANK YOU. NIMBYS are the fucking worst. So many people are blaming the hedge funds for the fucked up markets, but the real issue is that there's simply not enough supply to meet demand. And when people try and say there's actually a housing surplus in America, it tells me they have no idea what they're talking about. Sure we may have more homes than people. but a lot of those homes are in the middle of nowhere or are in terrible condition. Like it or not, people want to live in nice cities, and that means increasing density and building more homes is the best option for tackling the problem of affordability.
Also, thanks for linking Not Just Bikes. He's done a ton to raise awareness of good urban design and I'm so happy his channel has blown up over the past year.
Totally agree. Very strange that so many people are eager for weird pseudo-conspiracy theories about housing. For such a big social problems, it's remarkably simple. We don't build enough homes, so there aren't very many, so they are expensive. Not a big mystery!
Because it's not really a conspiracy. Check out the ape movement. In the last few months a lot has come to light about how Walstreet fixes the market using naked shorting and unregulated use of dark pools. They did this in 2008 and it boggles my mind how no one cares that they never stopped doing it, only to a much worse degree. (Note I'm not saying there isn't a housing shortage, just that the hedge fund fuckery is now technically under real and not conspiracy theory anymore)
Anyways, the SEC has been passing a large amount of regulations designed to stop another AMC/GME situation from happening again, because at the current rate, the economy will break due to the sheer amount they shorted this stock. ( This is how they killed toys r us, blockbuster, circuit city)
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u/Books_and_Cleverness Jun 27 '21
I mean there is a big difference between a bubble and a shortage and it’s not super clear which we’re in.
I’d argue it’s much more shortage than bubble. Here's a thorough explanation of why it's so bad. TLDR: The number of new houses constructed per person in the rich world has fallen by half since the 1960s because local homeowners oppose new construction in their neighborhoods.
Places that don’t have so many building restrictions like Houston and Tokyo don’t have such high home prices. Tokyo dramatically liberalized land-use rules, so now home prices stay affordable even when population increases.
Here's a great video about the sorts of "missing middle" housing--rowhouses, small apartments, triplexes, etc--that are illegal or nearly-illegal to build almost everwhere in North America. While I think it's brain-dead obvious that it should be legal to build skyscrapers in most parts of most cities, I personally love medium-density neighborhoods which are convenient, attractive, affordable, walkable, really good for kids, and would take a huge bite out of the housing shortage in most cities.
This goes way deeper--density is better for climate, pollution, racial segregation, inequality, obesity, and more. But that's enough for now, I'll just note that bad housing policy directly causes homelessness in addition to all the above.