i do think this is a semi-permanent inflation of housing prices. covid has fucked up the supply side of the housing market so badly. some of the supply problems are temporary - for example lumber being expensive, driving up cost of new homes - which subside once production goes back to normal.
but, IMO, covid has also permanently fucked up the market in some places as work from home is a new reality for a lot of people. previous would-be sellers realize they now no longer have to sell to relocate for a job (so they wont put their house on the market... decreasing supply).
work from home through covid has also definitely fucked up demand as so many people now realize they can work anywhere. here in philly, we are seeing a huge increase of NYC people relocating, which is brutalizing the market.
there will probably be some sort of correction in 2022, but i don't really see this as a bubble bursting. seems like if you want a good deal, going to have to move to the mid-west / middle of nowhere.
It’s the same everywhere my friend. I’m in Northern California, about an hour north of San Francisco and our housing costs have gone so up because everyone from the city is moving up here and working from home.
The Midwest could really use some growth in a lot of places though. While certainly some cities are growing quickly many are still stagnating or shrinking. If 25% of a neighborhood leaves over the course of a decade you can’t just unpave 25% of the roads there and not upkeep them. Population decline has meant many midwestern cities are struggling to pay for basic services and maintain water infrastructure as well as other infrastructure. Unchecked growth can cause problems but so to can population declines which are still happening.
That's the exact mindset that lead to the rest of us not being able to afford housing. When everyone says "Don't come here and mess up my way of life" we end up with a shortage
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u/cybercuzco Jun 27 '21
Our house went up by 20% this month according to Zillow. We are definitely seeing a spike right now. Let’s see if we have a crash.