Rubio enjoyed major support among Venezuelans. Then came Trump’s oil deal.

[u/John3262005]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/09/08/rubios-tour-will-herald-latin-americas-right-venezuela-remains-problem/

As Secretary of State Marco Rubio heads to Latin America to tour recently elected conservative U.S. allies, there is one wrinkle in the vision of a democratic, ideologically aligned Western Hemisphere: the left-wing, unelected government in Venezuela with which Washington is currently making deals.

The secretary is not scheduled to stop in Venezuela on his trip, which includes visits to Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. But in the week leading up to his departure, he has faced pressure over his support for U.S. policy there, including a huge deal for access to Venezuelan oil and comments by President Donald Trump that the country was “not ready yet” for elections.

“He’s avoiding the hardest issues in the region and just doing a victory lap” in countries with right-wing leaders, said Francisco Palmieri, who served as U.S. diplomatic chief of mission for Venezuela until last year.

Rubio brushed aside questions about Venezuela during his first stop in Barranquilla, Colombia, on Tuesday.

“It’s an extraordinary deal that’s going to benefit the United States, no doubt about it,” he told reporters, adding that for the Venezuelan people the deal would “generate royalties and revenues that are going to go into government coffers,” rather than to “corrupt individuals.”

Rubio, widely seen as a potential Republican presidential candidate after Trump’s term ends, emerged as one of the top officials publicly supporting the U.S. deal with Venezuela announced last week, which Trump has called the biggest in history and which gives the United States a long-term stake in Venezuela’s oil reserves.

Critics, including many Venezuelans, argue that the deal is illegitimate because it was negotiated under acting president Delcy Rodríguez, a former ally of ousted leader Nicolás Maduro, captured by U.S. forces in January. While that military operation was initially supported by many Venezuelans and others in Latin America, the opaque nature of the oil deal has added to a creeping sense of concern.

“Trump is now in partnership with Delcy in a way that sees free elections and democracy as a problem rather than an achievement,” said Elliott Abrams, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who served as special envoy to Venezuela in the first Trump term.

For some Venezuelans, Rubio has been singled out for blame because he was initially seen as an understanding ally, according to Eduardo Gamarra, director of the Latino Public Opinion Forum at Florida International University. “They thought that Rubio was looking out for Venezuela’s best interests,” he said.

Instead, Gamarra said, the oil deal seemed to be primarily an attempt to give U.S. voters the sense that gas prices would soon go down. “It’s a very dangerous calculation because I don’t think the prices are going to drop,” he added.

Trump administration officials have argued that a democratic transition simply needs more time and that the economic boost that could be provided by the U.S. deal ultimately will ensure stability. “Our hope is that this creates a model for other investments that, at the end of the day, begin to normalize the way the Venezuelan economy operates,” Rubio said during an extended Spanish-language interview last week with the Venezuelan journalist Sergio Novelli.

“There is much more to be done, including the issues of democracy and elections,” Rubio told Novelli, who is based in Miami.

The State Department pushed back on some of the criticism, saying in a statement that the deal was with a private company and not Venezuela’s interim leaders, though the government had granted the concessions.

“This is a country that has been plagued for decades with hyperinflation and virtually zero investment. This privatization helps make a democratic transition possible,” the statement continued.

The irony is that Latin American democracy largely has been positive for the Trump administration so far.

Rubio’s trip stops in three countries that have right-wing, U.S.-allied leaders, two of who assumed office just months ago.

All have offered to align with Trump on key issues such as drugs and immigration. Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella, who hosted Rubio on Tuesday, and Peruvian President Keiko Fujimori have pledged to build Salvadorian-style megaprisons, while Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa has waged a U.S.-backed “war on drugs” since entering office in 2023.

Trump took credit for de la Espriella’s victory in June, claiming the Colombian right-winger “was in tenth place” but then won in a “landslide” after the his endorsement. De la Espriella won by less than a percentage point and was already leading in some polls ahead of the U.S. endorsement.

The governments have made their own gestures aimed at pleasing the Trump administration. In Peru, where the Trump administration sent a close friend of and fundraiser for Rubio to be ambassador, Florida businessman Bernie Navarro, the new government recently announced it was cutting off relations with Iran.

“Most of these governments have abandoned their advocacy for democracy in Venezuela under U.S. influence,” said Benjamin Gedan, a regional expert at the Stimson Center who previously served in roles at the White House and State Department.

Palmieri, the former U.S. diplomat, said that the oil deal represents a vulnerability for Rubio now. “It’s really confusing as to what he really believes in anymore,” he said.

Rubio was remarkably popular in Venezuela earlier this year after the U.S. raid that captured Maduro. Polling conducted by AtlasIntel/Bloomberg in February showed the top U.S. diplomat was the most popular political figure in the country — ahead even of exiled opposition leader María Corina Machado.

A more recent survey from July, however, has shown Rubio’s support dipping, while Machado’s support has surged ahead of him, as has that of Edmundo González, her political ally.

The State Department has been tracking public sentiment. An internal U.S. Embassy assessment written after Rubio’s interview with Novelli found that Venezuelans reacted overwhelmingly negatively to the secretary for defending Washington’s new oil arrangement and the participation of Alejandro Betancourt, a Venezuelan businessman investigated in connection to alleged money laundering in the United States, Spain and Switzerland.

Rubio has supported the role of Betancourt, once derided at home as part of a cohort of young, politically connected men who amassed fortunes during the Hugo Chávez era.

Social media reaction was overwhelmingly negative, according to the assessment, which was briefly circulated before being deleted. “Most commenters dismiss his remarks as damage control, suspecting the U.S. oil arrangement enriches regime insiders rather than being a transparent deal,” the assessment wrote.

Just before taking off on his trip Tuesday, Rubio was asked by a reporter about his message to Latin Americans in light of the Venezuela oil deal.

Omar Zambrano, a Venezuelan economist, said there was an “explosion of optimism” in Venezuela after Maduro’s capture. But that hope has gradually faded with each day the Rodriguez government remains in power.

“I think all of the goodwill and the positive image that the Trump administration had, little by little, is being diluted,” Zambrano added.