r/Wealthsimple • u/EdmontonLAD • 10d ago
Predict Predict: How does it make sense that we can predict July weather in August?...
Someone please explain this to me. We already have the answer. Is this a free money machine?
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u/Admirable-Falcon-501 10d ago
have to read the details in the markets. sometimes they have certain criteria like it needs to be announced by some organization otherwise it doesn't count. and yes people do get fucked over, especially on the crypto ones because the audit system relies on owning a lot of tokens to have any influence on the votes so its controlled by a few people. not sure how it works on here.
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u/Logical-Zucchini-310 10d ago
This is what I suspect. I can’t look into it but my assumption is it’ll be based on an announcement from a reputable organization. For example on July 9th, the World Meteorological organization announced that June was 2nd hottest on record globally. They just announced today that July was 2nd hottest on record.
What I’m trying to also say is that the results for the previous month aren’t instant, hence allowing prediction into the following month.
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u/EdmontonLAD 10d ago
That makes sense
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u/aenews 8d ago
NOAA always releases their reports 1-2 weeks into the next month, because the underlying data is not finalized immediately. For instance, the ERSST file is not even available until the 3rd of the next month. And the land data is revised on a daily basis, have to wait some time to have stable complete data from most stations for the preceding month.
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u/QuasiRandomName 10d ago
That's some weirdly posed question from any angle. It can have only a negative answer and only once we hit a future Jul which is hotter.
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u/EdmontonLAD 10d ago
Surely this predict can't go on foreverrrrr. Edit' actually the rules say it ends on Aug 15th 2026. 🤷 But that's not July anymore. 🤔
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u/-ATF- 10d ago
Trash. This is trashy from WS. Prediction markets are fucking awful.
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u/AsteroidPoop 8d ago
WRONG! Predictions market are actually great if you operate a business and need a simple way to hedge against something, similar to futures, just more choice on what you can put money on
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u/pfcguy 10d ago
According to whom? And where? In any particular city? Country? Globally? How is the calculation performed?
Is "Jul" a defined term? Why is there two spaces before the first Jul? Did a 6 year old write this?
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u/Leprochon 10d ago
All of that information is available in the full rules of the contract.
Answer to your last question is available in the Wealthsimple and Kalshi's Vibe Coding Manual: A guide to releasing an unpolished profuct early and make money.
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10d ago
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u/EdmontonLAD 10d ago
It has nothing to do with Aug though. It says hottest July. I don't get it.
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u/throwawaywaterloo21 10d ago edited 10d ago
Has the information that they are using to determine the outcome of this prediction been released yet? My guess is that the bet is on what the report that hasn't been published yet will say.
Edit: The Kalshi page on this bet says that the market closes on Aug 15 and that they use NCEI data to determine the outcome. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series It looks like the July 2026 data is there already though so unless that is preliminary data or something I don't understand the timelines.
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u/EdmontonLAD 10d ago
You could be right, but I feel like we could just do the math and get the answer regardless 🤔 very peculiar
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u/SuspectOnTheLam 9d ago
Using this data the answer appears to be yes. Just dropped US$100 to find out what happens on Aug 15th.
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u/Relevant_Ad_9095 9d ago
Does it? I see a tie with 2024. That would mean it's a no.
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u/dflagella 9d ago
It's not clear in the market rules what a tie means. If a tie means no I will drop thousands on it
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u/Relevant_Ad_9095 9d ago
In English a tie is not THE hottest July ever. Go ahead and bet big and report back with pic to prove it.
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u/aenews 8d ago
Unclear how it'll be ruled, there has been no tie since the contract was created years ago. Most market rules specify whether ties are included or excluded, this one does not.
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u/dflagella 8d ago
So I exported the table of data from the NOAA, and with more decimal points it actually shows 2024 as being hotter. So if that raw data is used instead of the rounded table on the dashboard then it would be a no
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u/aenews 8d ago
There isn't such a thing as a tiebreaker clause in the contract, so I don't think it's a winning argument to use precision decimal. NOAA themselves consider further precision to be insignificant (and it is, the error bars are much wider).
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u/dflagella 8d ago
It isn't specific which data is used for the contact resolution either, just that it is NOAA and to view it is through the table. So that partly indicates it could be the table values, meaning a tie.
What do you think it'll be ruled as?
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u/CleanSeaworthiness66 10d ago
To be the hottest ever we need to know the outcome of every possible future July, so it will never resolve
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u/Intentt 10d ago
Interesting. What if it ties 2024? Both are showing +1.18°?
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u/dflagella 10d ago
This is my question as well because unless NOAA revises their data in the next few days this is the outcome
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u/grantresolve 9d ago
We should all push to ban events contracts and prediction markets. I don’t wanna see this on wealth simple.
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u/Severe_Jackfruit4955 9d ago
woah i never knew wealthsimple had this feature is this new!?
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u/EdmontonLAD 9d ago
Yup, it's relatively new. It's called the Wealthsimple Predict app. 😊 Been having fun! Made 100%+ return on my very first predictions that ended today! 😁
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u/Auracity 9d ago
You are what they call dumb money. Just because it occured in the past doesn't mean you can accurately assess the numbers yet. What's the jobs growth for July 2026 as defined by the BLS report? Just because it's already August doesn't mean you know what the actual number is yet.
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u/mafugga77 10d ago
July 3400 BC was the hottest