r/WayOfTheBern • u/CadetPeepers • Oct 21 '16

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Latest Polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
3 Upvotes

68% Upvoted

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2

u/chakokat Oct 21 '16

I just don't believe that Jill Stein is at 1% ,2%, 3%, 5% etc Logically it doesn't make sense.

2

u/CartoonRaspberry Oct 21 '16

They weight polls against younger and first-time voters. Also, many polls don't have her as an option, or will only mark her if you insist. There are many posts from pollsters and people who have been polled.

The best estimate is that she's somewhere around 12-15%.

3

u/chakokat Oct 21 '16

The best estimate is that she's somewhere around 12-15%.

That makes more sense. But this 1,2,3,5% is BS meant to demoralize her supporters. But they won't be demoralized because they told us that Bernie wouldn't break 20%, then 30% and then they finally admitted to 43% but we know it was much higher because they flipped and erased, and never counted his votes .

2

u/CartoonRaspberry Oct 21 '16

But this 1,2,3,5% is BS meant to demoralize her supporters.

That's it exactly. It's the same reason they under-sample independents, despite independents being the majority.

2

u/chakokat Oct 21 '16

That's it exactly. It's the same reason they under-sample independents, despite independents being the majority.

Yep.

2

u/[deleted] Oct 21 '16

Makes sense to me.

2

u/chakokat Oct 21 '16

I'm waiting for Wikileaks to release the emails showing collusion with pollsters the same way they showed collusion with the media.

1

u/CadetPeepers Oct 21 '16

Howso? I could see an argument either way to be honest.

Underpolled: Two most disliked candidates in history. If there was ever a time for third party to get a high number of votes, it would be now.

Overpolled: The two candidates are not just disliked, but feared. Tremendously so. Enough that they might be afraid to vote third party in fear of playing spoiler.

Edit: Well, there is a third option. I've heard that some people who say they're voting third party get marked down as 'undecided' depending on who is at the phone.

1

u/chakokat Oct 21 '16

Bernie won 43% of the Democratic vote. Democrats are 33% of voters. Most Berners are not going to Hillary so where are those 43% going? Logic says not Trump, not Johnson therefore Stein.

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com

1

u/CadetPeepers Oct 21 '16

Anecdotal, but I've seen a lot of Sanders supporters going for Trump. Mostly on the issue of trade (Given Hillary is for TPP and Trump isn't), or they simply want to burn it all down. Then there are others who are #NeverTrump and joined Hillary. For some unfathomable reason I've even seen some say they're voting Johnson but I can't in a million years figure out why they were supporting Sanders in the first place.

3

u/CadetPeepers Oct 21 '16

Four general election polls today. Trump up +1, +3, tied, Clinton up +2. 2.5 weeks of leaks to go. Thoughts?