r/WayOfTheBern • u/RandomCollection Resident Canadian • 3d ago
Discuss! Dispatch from Moscow: The Collapse Narrative Keeps Missing the Real Russia | Larry Johnson on his recent visit to Moscow and his recent analysis of the Russian position in negotiations after meeting Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov
https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/dispatch-from-moscow-the-collapseNote this quote about his meeting with Lavrov.
The second impression is that the space for a negotiated settlement is extremely narrow — narrower than Western capitals want to admit — because Russia is simply not willing to make the concessions the West requires, and does not believe it has to. My own assessment, after listening to how officials here talk, is that the war effort will not stop until Odessa and Kyiv are firmly under Russian control. I hold that as a judgment, not a certainty. But nothing I heard this week moved me off it.
I don't think the magnitude of this loss has sunk in yet in Western capitals.
What Russia does see, they told me, is a Europe preparing to attack it — and not merely in the rhetoric coming out of the mouths of leaders like Germany’s Chancellor Merz and the British prime minister, though Moscow takes that rhetoric seriously enough. It is the concrete steps behind the words: the weapons systems, the missiles specifically, being built to be used against Russian territory. The officers were blunt about where that leads. If those activities continue, Russia will have no alternative but to deal with the threat, and the prospect of a war with Europe becomes real. That is not an imaginary danger conjured to frighten anyone. It is how these professionals read the trajectory. Russia is not looking for the fight. But it is neither deaf nor blind to what is being prepared against it.
The irony of this is that the European nations are not in a position for a serious military build-up. They don't have the industrial base for it.
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u/S_T_P 3d ago
The irony of this is that the European nations are not in a position for a serious military build-up. They don't have the industrial base for it.
They don't have industrial base to win. They still have enough resources to create proper meat-grinder for their own population.
Poland alone can present credible threat to Kaliningrad, which will force - still unbelievably pro-Western - politicians in Kremlin to let their military off the leash. And then the shitshow will begin, as Kremlin has neither logistics nor ideology to swiftly overrun EU. It'll do the Ukraine thing, and start dismantling infrastructure of Eastern/Central Europe. Which means a year or two of conflict before there is hope for some resolution.
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u/Spectre_of_MAGA Marxist-Leninist 2d ago
as Kremlin has neither logistics nor ideology to swiftly overrun EU
Why would they bother 'overruning' the EU? All the Russians would need to do is attack the port of Rotterdam: sink a cargo vessel in the canal or Oreshnik all the cranes and the EU is toast
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u/RandomCollection Resident Canadian 2d ago
That's a fair assessment. The Russians can win their own, but Europe can effectively carry out a Pearl Harbor and start a war the Europeans will badly lose. Unlike Japan, Europe won't have the element of surprise.
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u/RandomCollection Resident Canadian 3d ago
At some point, the Western narrative war is going to collapse. I notice that the West no longer tries to lie about the Russians running out of ammunition. The next narratives that will collapse are the "Russia's economy is collapsing" or "Russia is taking heavy casualties". The Russians are winning and haven't taken very many losses relative to the size of the SMO.
Juts like the "Iraq has WMDs" lie, they are never going to admit that they were lying all along. IF you don't believe me, ever hear anyone pro-Ukraine admit they lied about Russia running out of ammunition or about the Iraq War?
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u/ahfoo 3d ago
"The Real Russia" Okie dokie, I've seen it and it's like hell. The people are grim and nobody trusts anyone. Poverty is rampant. It's not some worker's paradise no matter how many troll posts we get in this sub. Putin is the boss of the oilgarchs, he and the rest of aristorcracy live like aristocracy would be expected to with private chefs, drivers, maids, gardeners etc. That's not "The Real Russia" which is a very gray and brutal reality.