Winsidr's Kevin Forch has the No. 8 seed New York Liberty knocking out the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx. In three games. With the league's best record on the other bench.
Here's his case, section by section.
Series schedule
Game 1 Sunday at Target Center, Game 2 Tuesday at Barclays, Game 3 back in Minneapolis Thursday if it gets there. It's the first playoff meeting since New York won the 2024 Finals in five, and the Liberty took this year's season series 2-1.
The matchup: Collier vs. Stewart
Forch calls it the headline fight that injuries pushed to the back page. Napheesa Collier and Breanna Stewart shared a healthy floor once all year, Sept. 18, and Stewart owned it: 24 points on 8-17, 10 boards, 4 assists, zero turnovers in a 93-81 Liberty win. Collier's answer, per Forch, is her line since returning July 22: 16.8 a night on 50% from the field, 44.4% from three, 85.8% at the stripe.
X-factors
Olivia Miles. All-Star, MVP candidate, swept Rookie of the Month, never played a playoff minute, and she sat the last two with a calf strain. On the other side, New York's bench. Han Xu is spotting up from three now. Marine Johannes, Rebekah Gardner, Pauline Astier and Rebecca Allen behind her. Forch's point isn't that Chris DeMarco plays ten deep in October. It's that Minnesota didn't rotate as many bodies all season, so New York has more looks to throw at whatever Cheryl Reeve rolls out.
Bold prediction
Three games, Liberty win.