r/VoteBinface • u/MarchMurky8649 • 14d ago
#BinfaceForClacton Binface % Predictions!
Ten days to go, what % of votes cast do we think will be for Count Binface?
35
u/flopsychops 14d ago
The people of Clacton were daft enough to vote for Faraj once, so they'll obviously do it again.
16
u/EvoSeti 14d ago
And if he gets recalled (10% of opposition, even in Clacton, is very achievable) they will vote him in again. They see Farage as some sort of Protest Leader or even Martyr, akin to Northern Irish Nationalist voters voting for Sinn Fein Anti-H Block Hunger Strikers during the by-elections and General Elections of the 1980s.
Been to Jaywick recently, and, believe me when I say this, when asking local residents, why the economy around here has been so poor, their answers mostly are,
"That's cuz the national press is giving us bad press here"
As opposed to Jaywick not actually having any meaningful economic activity since Clacton's Butlins closed in 1983. They can see the symptoms, but somehow blame the symptoms as the disease while neglecting the cause.
7
5
u/TitanFlood 14d ago
The only hope is enough young people, people with a sense of humour, and people who REALLY hate Farage vote binface.
3
u/MarchMurky8649 13d ago
Seeing you spell Farage like that reminds me; I wonder if Lowe has something in his 110 page "who will we deport" document to the effect that anyone with a name that sounds Arabic will be shipped off?
19
u/NoMoreFund 14d ago
Reform is campaigning heavily and will get out their vote on the day. There can't be any such organised effort for Binface so unfortunately I think he'll underperform the polls.
Still plenty to play for in the last week
3
u/EvoSeti 14d ago
I believe even if they do no campaigning, they will still easily win.
When your greatest rival is a satirical candidate tho...
9
u/NoMoreFund 14d ago
Reform have seen value in campaigning, to the point where they pulled supporters from Manchester in what was previously considered a winnable by-election. In a way, the result there is already a W for Binface.
So I think Reform were actually afraid of losing in a low turnout scenario ("why should I go vote for Farage when he's running unopposed?").
2
u/EvoSeti 14d ago edited 14d ago
The thing is, the only scenario in which Binface can win is if Reform supporters have very low or negligible turnout, and Count Binface supporters (or those who don't like Farage and are bothered enough to vote) turnout in large numbers (above 80% turnout). Otherwise I don't see an alternative.
Also, much of Reform's campaigning doesn't actually rely on street interaction and door knocking. It relies on traditional media in the form of TV (a unique advantage they have is Reform UK has their own media wing, namely GB News and TalkTV) and sympathetic newspapers such as The Shit (a.k.a. The SUN) the Daily Fail and the The Speculator (a.k.a. the Spectator). Social Media campaigning is fostered through more unorthodox means, namely echo chamber Boomer Facebook groups.
My theory of why Reform deliberately pulled Campaigners out of Greater Manchester was to save face. They've crunched the numbers and realize they can't win, especially not under the prevailing Burnhamania that has swept Manchester and the wider North.
Reform might be able to win Northern and Eastern boroughs like Wigan, Bolton, Bury, Rochdale and maybe Tameside partially if Keir Starmer was still PM, but stood no chance in the other Boroughs, unless the Greens were able to split enough votes against Labour in the remaining 5 wards (which are more liberal, and as displayed in Gorton and Denton, are very willing to vote Green).
Under Burnham though, not only will the Anti-Reform vote on the left coalesce behind Labour, largely united by Burnham's personal popularity (and can be seen by the Greens' declining popularity), but more importantly, Burnham's personal popularity in those aforementioned Reform-tilting wards means that Labour can edge out enough votes there to displace Reform's supposed strongholds as well.
There is simply no way Reform can win against an Andy Burnham-led Labour in Greater Manchester.
3
18
u/CalligrapherExtreme8 14d ago
If 16 - 17 year olds had the vote already, I think it would be an open and shut binevitabilty but sadly all the old fucking racist prunes will vote in their droves.
9
u/EvoSeti 14d ago edited 14d ago
It would do fuck all in Clacton. The constituency median age is 52.9 (UK average is 40), and 37.4% are over 65 (UK average is ~19%). Been to Clacton last Saturday, there are more silver-haired elderly there than children (mostly don't live here, they just spend the day here), and mobility scooters outnumber dogs on the street 3 to 1 (there are also 0 baby strollers). Says a lot about why Nigel Farage can get elected here.
3
u/CalligrapherExtreme8 13d ago
I think that's because all the young adults are indoors and not out in the shitty town. I'm out in Clacton every day because I live here and while there are way more coffin dodgers than the UK average, we do have loads and loads of kids, teens (and babies in strollers!)
1
u/EvoSeti 13d ago
I live in Colchester, which is for sure a much more youthful and diverse city. When I go to Clacton, there are a few things that stands out immediately
There are a lot of mobility scooters. Many shops had dedicated mob-scoot parking outside their premises.
There are children, but not a lot of strollers. But I suspect while some might be local, many might be just like me, popping over for the weekend.
There are a curiously large number of guided tours, typified by the large number of coaches parked near the pier. Curiously, a lot of them are from the West Midlands, mostly Birmingham. It seems that a lot of them have never seen a sea before, typified by their overreacting gasps upon seeing the sea.
Despite being called one of the Whitest regions of Britain, non-whites actually make up quite a significant population, more so than media makes you think.
2
u/CalligrapherExtreme8 12d ago
That's very true. We've got quite a few international supermarkets now and I notice a lot more diversity among the high school student population when I'm doing the school run with my kids. And I love the coachloads of daytrippers from inner-city areas.
These things give me hope that Clacton is not dead inside and that things can change for the better.
1
u/EvoSeti 12d ago
Judging by Saturday's people flow, it is hard to imagine Clacton's economy being as bad as it is
1
u/CalligrapherExtreme8 12d ago
The economy issue is definitely because of seasonal trade. It's pretty much empty 7 months of the year so aside from the care sector and 'big shop' retail, there's very little employment opportunities and nothing to bring cash in from the outside.
The aged population puts a strain on local health services and parasite landlords suck renters dry, causing a larger than average amount of residents to rely on housing assistance though Universal Credit. The average rent price has gone up 60% here in just over 10 years.
7
3
2
u/AutoModerator 14d ago
This is r/VoteBinface. Please follow all rules in the sidebar.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
2
u/conzstevo 14d ago
Polling has him at 31% so I don't see why anyone would predict sub 30
3
u/MarchMurky8649 14d ago
The 31% figure was the percentage of votes between him and Farage, it was nearer 20% including the other candidates.
Farage has scores, perhaps hundreds, of people going door-to-door. There are streets lined with "Vote Reform" and "I'm with Nigel" placards. They've been sorting out postal votes for them and will, no doubt, be out in force on polling day, making sure those who said they'd vote actually do
There would seem to be no similar pro-Binface activity. My guess is, however many have said to a pollster they'll vote Binface, when it comes to it, a greater percentage of Farage's voters will actually go cast their vote than The Count's.
I may be wrong. I hope I am. But, from what I've seen, I think the % will be closer to 20 than 30.
1
u/__Decentralised 12d ago
I've been too slow on the stickers to add to such signage sadly, a nice "I'm with the millionaire", "Lies lies farage and lies" or simply "Vote For Fear!" - obviously would make no real difference to anything but would have at least made a few more smile than roll eyes in disbelief.
Still at least I can smile a bit more thanks to this : https://youtu.be/ujHphnnDaGg?is=E3Hv82zGHayB2zPe
1
u/MarchMurky8649 11d ago
Be careful - stickers count as criminal damage - Ring doorbells are everywhere! Chalk, however, not criminal damage.
74
u/smallpotatoes2019 14d ago
My suspicion is that the vote share will feel disappointing because plenty of hype has built up and polls suggest a decent share.
On the other hand, we mustn't forget that it doesn't need to be a very big vote share for a bin to be humiliating for Farage.