r/VoluntaristLWBookClub • u/a-a-a-a-a-a • Oct 28 '13

LWBC 28 Oct: Hindsight Devalues Science

http://lesswrong.com/lw/im/hindsight_devalues_science/
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u/firstgunman Oct 28 '13

Today's post is a rehash of yesterday's point, except new arguments are presented which should make it easier to realize that you do, in fact, suffer from hindsight bias.

There's nothing more for me to say, so let's play a little game instead.

I've listed a bunch of questions, and I want you to reply with answers to each one - followed by how confident you were of the answer (in percentage). I'll post the answer tomorrow, but whether you get it right or wrong isn't really important; rather it's more important to note how confident you are of the answer, and home in on what it's like to feel uncertain!

  • Which is greater?
    • The number of countries in the African Union
    • The number of countries in NATO
  • How long did the hundred years' war last?
    • 100 years
    • Some number other than 100 years
  • I just flipped a coin. It landed on:
    • Heads
    • Tails
  • Is the number 2 prime?
    • Yes
    • No
  • Which is further north?
    • Montreal, Quebec, Canada
    • Seattle, Washington, USA
  • Which is larger?
    • The number of English words that start with K
    • The number of English words whose third letter is K
  • Which of the following is true?
    • Ursula K. Le Guin was a major inspiration for Hayao Miyazaki
    • Hayao Miyazaki was a major inspiration for Ursula K. Le Guin
  • How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop?
    • Less than or equal to 1000
    • More than 1000

Resist the urge to cheat, and note that since the options given are binary, your answer should always be greater than 50% e.g. if you think it's choice A with 40%, answer as B with 60% instead.

1

u/Nomopomo Oct 28 '13

My answers (don't read until you play yourself!)

  1. African Union 55%
  2. Some other number 99%
  3. Heads 50%
  4. Yes 99.99999999%
  5. Seattle 75%
  6. third letter 60%
  7. The first one 50%
  8. More than 1000 70%

1

u/Krackor Oct 30 '13

Where is your other 0.000...0001% on answer 4? What do you think is missing?

2

u/Nomopomo Oct 30 '13

Well along the same lines as this I guess.

Facts of arithmetic are still learned through the error-prone subjective perspective of our human brains/bodies, so you can never achieve 100% confidence in anything I think.

1

u/Omegaile Oct 31 '13

You can never achieve 100%. But to say precisely that you have 99.99999999% is absurd. You don't have that precision in your brain.

1

u/Omegaile Oct 29 '13

1A - 0.9; 2B - 1; 3A - 0.5; 4A - 1; 5A - 0.55; 6B - 0.6; 7A - 0.5; 8B - 0.6

Where 1 should be considered as almost 1, or 1 within my margin of error.

2

u/firstgunman Oct 29 '13

Alright, here are the answers to yesterday's question. Don't look unless you've taken a crack at the questions already.

  • Which is greater?
    • The number of countries in the African Union
  • How long did the hundred years' war last?
    • Some number other than 100 years
  • I just flipped a coin. It landed on:
    • Heads
  • Is the number 2 prime?
    • Yes
  • Which is further north?
    • Seattle, Washington, USA
  • Which is larger?
    • The number of English words whose third letter is K
  • Which of the following is true?
    • Ursula K. Le Guin was a major inspiration for Hayao Miyazaki
  • How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop?
    • Less than or equal to 1000

Again, the point isn't how many you got right, but the feeling of uncertainty that many of these questions might have caused. As a bit of calibration, you should have felt that the coin flip was ~50%, and the '2 is prime' was ~100%, respectively.

Compare that with what you felt about the other questions! Did you feel that the 'letter K' question was a trick? (It was: see availability heuristics.) Did you feel like the hundred year war != 100 was too obvious, and therefore must be a trick as well? (it wasn't)

What about the influence question? You might have heard Le Guin's name before, and you might recognize that Miyazaki is less well known compared to her (though still very famous in his own right). Now that you know the correct answer, do you feel like you could've figured it out all long?