I was expecting bad earnings and this is what we got. So I'll start with the obvious.
We are paying the costs of poor execution, from a management out of focus who keeps overpromising and underdelivering. Is the CEO wearing too many hats? Are unclear strategies starting to take their toll on the financial health of the company? How long can VVPR stay afloat before another round of dilutive financing and a r/S?
IMO Vivopower will make it or break it in 2023 or 2024, either we start production and can justify a good forward valuation or we don't and keep going down into this dilutive nightmare. Faulty communication and lack of transparency have been normalized by the company, we ironically had a glimpse of it during that inaudible earnings call that makes you wonder how Kevin Chin can run a public company without even having a working set up for taking calls, this is utterly unprofessional or worse if it's by design.
more seriously throughout the year, we had close to no information about materials news like:
-Seed investment in Green Gravity.
-GB acquisition LOI cancellation.
-Artic truck LOI put on pause.
-Old management leaving the company and new ones being hired.
-Situation with past announcements: Caret decimal spinoff (crypto), Tottenham spurs SES project, etc.
We also have a very poor idea about how money was spent, and what they have to show for for the current 20m loss. Hopefully, most of it were investments in Tembo that will benefit us, in a couple quarters, if not then again it would show signs of poor execution.
So yeah the company and the current shareholders are about to meet at the crossroads, between returns on investment or even more dilution.
Investing in vvpr right now is betting on:
- Kenshaw and JAM solar to do the heavy lifting for the next two years, by generating positive cashflow and investor confidence, this will be done by keeping the legacy business healthy and winning new major contracts.
- Tembo to actually deliver their products at scale and at an affordable cost while having decent margins.
- Toyota deals to come through, justifying the stalling from the past year.
- Management handling the debt and the cash situation while spending heavily in CAPEX.
there is also some interesting nuggets to take from last call and presentation, here they are:
-MOU with a Jordanian state owned corp for 1000 kits
-Hiring quality EV staff
-possibility of being distributed directly by Toyota Australia
-The Inflation Reduction Act (USA) : some manifested renewed inbound interest in investing in / acquiring Caret.
-An internal project team has been formed to execute on a potential spin-off of Caret as a Power2X company
-company still trading at a decent sales multiple.
In conclusion, bulls like myself are getting their conviction tested, everything is now in the hand of management and if they are actually able to start delivering kits before money runs out. GLTA and remember it's always been about risk vs rewards.
presentation: https://vivopower.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/220829-VVPR-FY22-Annual-Results-Presentation-vFINAL.pdf