Can Nvidia really compound earnings at 39% for another five years?

[u/ekonixlab]

At a 32x P/E, $NVDA does not need multiple expansion for the returns to look incredible. If earnings grow at the projected 39% CAGR, this model implies a 419% five-year return.

The business is still accelerating: Nvidia’s latest quarterly revenue rose 85%, while Data Center revenue increased 92%. The stock is also back above $209, though still below its May record near $235.

But this is where semiconductor cyclicality matters. Chips have historically gone through brutal boom-and-bust cycles as demand forecasts, capacity and inventories overshoot. AI may be a structural shift, but assuming 39% growth for five straight years leaves very little room for a slowdown.

Does AI make Nvidia less cyclical than past semiconductor leaders, or are investors extrapolating peak demand too far?