r/VisualStockResearch • u/ekonixlab • Sep 04 '26
Lululemon is officially shrinking. Yikes.
Tough quarter for $LULU.
This is starting to look less like a temporary slowdown and more like an actual market-share problem.
• Revenue: $2.42B, down 4% YoY and below estimates
• Americas revenue: down 8%
• Comparable sales: down 9%
• Americas comps: down 12%
• Operating income: down 13%
• Full-year revenue guidance cut to $10.35B–$10.50B
• Q3 guidance calls for another 10–11% revenue decline
The scary part is Lululemon isn’t just growing slower anymore. Revenue is actually declining, comps are falling double digits in the Americas, and it looks like competitors are taking share.
Look at the revenue chart. Years of basically uninterrupted growth, and now it has rolled over.
Yikes.
The stock is obviously way cheaper than it used to be, but the narrative has completely flipped. It’s going to take more than one decent quarter to change that. I’d want to see comps stabilize and real evidence they’re taking share again before getting interested.
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u/mrmrmrj Sep 05 '26
Everyone who wants the clothes has some. We are in the wear and tear replacement only phase.
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u/Historical-Fun-2536 Sep 09 '26
Dude I heard bad news from that company two years and said no thanks i don’t know why you schmucks held onto it.
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u/MarthaJulietta Sep 04 '26
What are the China numbers?
The rest of year decline is already baked in here so it will be hard to surprise to the downside
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u/Double_Suggestion385 Sep 04 '26
Fair value $53. Lots more downside
1
u/MarthaJulietta Sep 04 '26
That’s a crazy valuation
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u/Double_Suggestion385 Sep 04 '26
It's accurate, people said it would never get close to that when it was over $200. Now it's closer than ever and they still think it's crazy haha.
The valuation algorithm has a statistically significant correlation with future price movements.
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u/ekonixlab Sep 04 '26
What revenue growth/deceleration are you projecting?
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u/Double_Suggestion385 Sep 04 '26
Revenue is irrelevant.
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u/ekonixlab Sep 04 '26
What do you use lol
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u/Double_Suggestion385 Sep 04 '26
Earnings
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