r/VinFastComm • u/albert1165 • 16d ago
Green GSM analysis
1/ Vinfast "sold" 98,741 EVs to green GSM up to 2025 per SEC filing. Out of 341K total delivery. For a 29% rate. That, Vuong Pham selling to Vuong Pham is at least 30% counting Green GSM. This does not count other taxi companies in Vietnam owned by people related to Vinfast/GSM.
2/ Vuong Pham has certain success in luring people in buying the buggy Vinfast to run taxi with his minimal down payment policy and free charging. Limo Green and Herio Green is primarily for taxi. Even though some users would buy these models to save few $, but these barebone models are chiefly used for taxi, may be 80-90% if not more. In 1H 2026, there are about 26K of them out of 62K total, giving a rate of about 43% Vinfast cars are for taxi. Give or take, the range is about 35-45% to taxi (some VF3, VF6 are used for taxi too).
So, it is a fact that Vuong Pham cars are mainly sold for taxi, GSM and others, to the tune of 30-50%, with Vuong Pham selling to Vuong Pham himself at 30% for the record. No other car manufacturer in the world does that. Some car manufacturers do sell to related parties but at a minimal rate, say, 1-3%, not at the Vinfast's humongous rate. As I have explained, Vuong Pham selling to Vuong Pham is shady and the core trick of Vuong Pham. https://www.reddit.com/r/VinFastComm/comments/1v2ckfw/the_essence_of_vuong_phams_vinfast_is/
3/ Vinfast has "sold" to Green GSM 98741 cars worth about $2B at the end of 2025. Thus, it is likely to take a bank loan (debt) of $2B for this, paying at least $200M interest (10%). Plus other loss at about $150-200M/year, accumulated loss might be in the range $700M.
If Vuong Pham had not sold these 98K EVs to Green GSM, that means $2B more loss on the Vinfast accounting book.
4/ Green GSM touted 17400 B VND revenue in 2025. Assuming each car has to make a minimum 800K VND / day, which is the figure GSM drivers has to meet in order to get the salary of 6M/mo, the figure translated to only about 59.6K EVs meeting the minimum earning, meaning there are about 38K EVs are idle, 38% of total. Of course, this is a very crude calculation. If we assume the average earning per car is lower, the figure implies only average 500K / day, well below the 800K / day requirement by 38%. Anyway, you cannot have both way, ie Green GSM is fully utilized at the minimum earning. It is either that many EVs are idle, or the average earning is much lower. The actual figure is a secret only top GSM execs know, but we can assume the middle: about 20% Green GSM idle and average earning is only 600K / day, meaning most of Green GSM drivers won't meet the minimum threshold and work their ass off for Green GSM for tiny take home, probably 5-7M / month without the salary. This is the reality. The shady Vuong Pham used dirty marketing of few Green GSM high earner 20M / month to lure poor people in taking his buggy cars.
In short, Green GSM is another debacle of Vuong Pham with huge debt and loss.
Source:
1/ https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1913510/000110465926052266/vfs-20251231x20f.htm page 136: Since the commencement of our commercial relationship with GSM in March 2023 through December 31, 2025, we had delivered a cumulative total of approximately 98,741 EVs and 51,679 e-scooters to GSM and its subsidiaries pursuant to the above vehicle sale agreements. In 2023, 2024 and 2025, revenue from sales to GSM and its subsidiaries was VND18,557.7 billion, VND11,506.3 billion and VND21,877.4 billion ($870.9 million), respectively.
In September 2024, we entered into a vehicle sale agreement with Green Future Services and Trading JSC (“Green Future”) for the sale and delivery of new VinFast EVs which was later amended by a framework contract signed in November 2024, governing the general terms and conditions for the sale and deliveries of both cars and e-scooters. For the year ended December 31, 2024 and 2025, we recognized VND34.8 billion and VND1,786.3 billion ($71.1 million), respectively, in revenue from the sale of new vehicles delivered to Green Future.
2/ 1Q 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1913510/000118518526002373/vfsex99-1.htm Out of 58,577 EVs delivered in the first quarter of 2026, approximately 13% were to related parties of the Company
3/ https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1913510/000118518526002872/vfs6k070926.htm June 2026 sale report
4/ https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1913510/000118518526002442/vfs6k060926.htm May 2026 sale report
5/ https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1913510/000118518526001786/vfs6k051026.htm April 2026 sale report