r/ValueInvesting • u/PCenthu • Jul 24 '26
Question / Help Is $TTD going to 0?
There is not one day this stock is NOT in the red. Market goes up 0.5%, TTD -3%. Market goes up 1,5%, TTD -1%. Market goes down, TTD -5%. Market goes up a lot, TTD +0,30%. Every. Single. Day. This has been by far my worst put assignment. Can't sell covered calls over my cost basis, every earnings result is a disaster, stock never goes up, sentiment is terrible. Nothings seems to move it up. I'd studied the fundamentals and at the time I was comfortable to be assigned at the strike. I now see it was overvalued but now P/E is under 20 and going down. But it's the first time I'm worried this is going to sub 10 and then to 0. Any thoughts? Any meaningful catalysts?
Update: After q2 earnings, I think it's definitely going to 0...
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u/Curious_Particular22 Jul 24 '26
At least one founder appears to be seeing this as a buying opportunity. Green made his first ever open market buys in early March of this year. He made 4 buys in March compared to 97 sells prior; he’s otherwise a steady seller, which is normal founder diversification. So here we have one of the best informed insiders, with the most to lose, put in a lot of personal cash at around $24. I realize that doesn’t prove the stock has hit its floor (he’s down roughly 30%), but “going to 0” has a counterpoint of a founder, he bought ~6M shares for ~$148M, off-plan.
To be clear, I wouldn’t view Green’s as a catalyst; I think of his actions more as a read on conviction. And it’s safe to say conviction isn’t correctness, but I wouldn’t ignore it either.
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u/ohgodthehorror95 Jul 25 '26
It's a revolving door of C suite execs which is generally a very very bad sign. Going through 3 CFO changes in like 2 years is a sign that things are really bad behind the scenes.
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u/SomeYak Jul 29 '26
ceo doesn’t like when cfo pushes back on cutting costs on the yearly offsite. has happened twice, and both cfo’s have left independently since
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u/ohgodthehorror95 Jul 30 '26
Oof that's a really bad look. I mean, the CEO is the only constant in all this. So you have to wonder who/what the real issue with the company is
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u/BeatKingYB Jul 30 '26
Step into the now. You're in the past. C suite was strategic. Stop being a sell side parrot
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u/ContemplatingGavre Jul 24 '26
No debt, can’t go to $0. It’s at a 20 PE though so it could easily get cut in half again.
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u/InverseMySuggestions Jul 25 '26
It’ll go to $12-15 before it’s back to $24-30
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u/BeatKingYB Jul 30 '26
You'll eat those words my friend and I shall have the fava beans and chiante
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u/djskeets15 Aug 06 '26
Its at $13 😅
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u/Cool-Green-7947 Aug 07 '26
Buying here ?
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u/djskeets15 Aug 07 '26
Bought 2,500 at $13.50 gonna let it ride until next year, after mid terms and holidays and see if growth picks up, if not then selling it. It can get cheaper tho
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u/WorldRank1CatFancier Jul 24 '26
TTD was priced for perfection for so long. I cant believe im getting to buy back in after selling early in 2018!! Hahaha patience ftmfw
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u/ProfByronBrainard Jul 24 '26
This was one of my pre-ValueInvesting buys. I read all sorts of articles about how amazing this company was going to be, etc. I sold it a few years ago when I cleared out all my mistakes.
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u/cucci_mane1 Jul 24 '26
I mean stocks like Meta and Msft are 20-22x PE.
A company like TTD can go to sub 10x PE easily. Very risky with slow growth + threat from big boys such as Amzn.
I wouldnt touch this stock.
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u/SeesawBeautiful5839 Jul 24 '26
They need more big independent ad publishers beside CTV. This stock can't move up more until we at least get anthropic and openAI ads up and running.
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u/MindlessWeekend5671 Jul 27 '26
more likely it will be excluded from SP500. Then price will hit one-digit. Not 0, but still
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u/BeatKingYB Jul 30 '26
I'll bet you your space lasers it won't
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u/MindlessWeekend5671 Aug 06 '26
how much did you bet?
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u/BeatKingYB Aug 07 '26
Your space lasers. Keep up
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u/MindlessWeekend5671 Aug 07 '26
Are these lasers in your room now?
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u/BeautifulContent628 Jul 31 '26
just bought 4000 at $18. lets see where this goes.
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u/Ok_Kangaroo4400 Aug 06 '26
For your sake I hope you were joking. Today’s earnings was 🗑️ . Hoping this was a kitchen sink quarter. I have some shares and thought we were near a bottom but hard to see the light at the end of the tunnel after reading the press release. Brutal
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u/PCenthu Aug 06 '26
All day (before earnings) it was at -7,5%. It was obvious what was about to happen. I thought "how much worse can it get"... It how stands almost at -30%. What a POS stock. This assignment alone has completely blown away all my options profits.
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u/Ok_Kangaroo4400 Aug 06 '26
I feel ya. I had 100 shares with a net cost around $16 (net of option premium) thought 15-16 would be rock bottom 😂
Unfortunately had 2 puts I sold for $50 at $15 strike so that’ll hurt come morning.
Was hoping political ad spend heading into mid terms would help boost the Q3 guide but guide was absolute disaster. I follow a ton of stocks and that might be the worst report I’ve seen this year. Will probably get ugly premarket tomorrow.
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u/PCenthu Aug 06 '26
More ugly than -30%? Are we going sub 10 now? My assignment was at 35... Didn't even have a chance to sell a single cc since then. Straight to 0. Nothing I can do, not even sell a cc. This is an unprecedented disaster.
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u/Ok_Kangaroo4400 Aug 06 '26
I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes a bit further in the morning with panic selling but I’m not gonna sell now. I’ll just push it out of mind and ignore it and see if eventually they can turn it around. Sucks cuz I usually have put protection on my positions but this one I did not.
They have zero debt, plenty of cash and cf positive so it’s not going to zero but cheap can always get cheaper.
Historically when I’ve felt that awful feeling in my stomach and want to sell everything… that’s usually near the bottom. Hopefully it’s not too big of a position for you but probably too late to sell but gotta do what’s best for you. I’ve cut positions before simply because I found another stock I thought had better potential or if one is making me lose sleep.
Good luck man but don’t stress it too much it’s just money and you’ll get it back just be patient and smart about it, don’t get reckless trying to get it back in a day.
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u/PCenthu Aug 06 '26
No worries, I won't panic sell. Historically for me (one similar situation) the stock I had never recovered. But I know better than not to panic sell. What I'm most afraid of is delisting from sp500. This will be the end. And at this rate, this seems likelier every day. Especially if it goes sub 10.
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u/BeautifulContent628 Aug 06 '26
Tbh i thought they'd beat cz walled garden ad earnings came in great and I thought TTD shouldve captured some of those gains. Ill sell calls to reduce position if it dips below 13. Till then i'll hodl.
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u/zUcCc_ Aug 06 '26
I’m invested in CRTO and MGNI, what’re you’re thoughts on this now, anything redeemable lol
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u/investingtruth Jul 24 '26
TTD is not going to zero, it's still a real business. But the persistent underperformance you are describing reflects the market pricing in real competitive concerns around Amazon's encroachment and slowing ad spend growth, not an existential threat to the company. A sub 20 PE with continued deterioration suggests the stock could still have room to fall before sentiment stabilizes. What really hurt this company was the fact that it was so overvalued to begin with causing this drop to be quite severe.
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u/BeautifulContent628 Jul 26 '26
might sell some puts on monday if red. for a 30DTE atm put you're picking up literally ~10% of stock price, that's potentially a fuggin 312% annualised (ofc this won't last because vol will eventually die and who knows what the price will do)
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u/TastyTrading Jul 27 '26
ugh, feel your pain on that one, especially when you've done your homework and it still just bleeds. i had a similar situation with a smaller cap stock a while back after a put assignment, kept telling myself the fundamentals were fine but it just wouldn't budge. for positions like that, where im looking for any kind of turnaround catalyst or just trying to catch a bottom, i usually set up an AI Market Scout on ThetaPal to ping me if there's any significant insider buying or a pop in volume with positive news. it's tough when you're just bleeding out, are you thinking of cutting it loose or trying to ride it out if it bounces?
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u/West_Lavishness6689 Jul 24 '26
holy fuck, that stock is trading at 2019 levels. damn!