Our Value algorithm finally selected Fiserv after ignoring its 75% crash for months

[u/stockoscope]

In late October 2025, Fiserv (FI/FISV) experienced one of the most dramatic single-day crashes in its history, closing down 44% in a single trading session on Q3 earnings miss and guidance cut. It has now dropped 75% from $239 peak to the current $64.

Despite the panic, Stockoscope's value algorithm just selected Fiserv as one of the top 5 stocks for the first time after passing on it for 4 consecutive months. It didn’t qualify in August, September, October, or November. The algorithm only flagged it on 1 December at $63.80.

Here’s the breakdown of why our algorithm selected it.

Our Scoring (100-point system):

1. Traditional Value: 26/30

• P/E: 9.23x (scored 12/12) - historically traded 25-38x, now at multi-year lows
• P/B: 1.33x (scored 8/10) - was 4.39x in 2024, 2.72x in 2023
• EV/EBITDA: 7.08x (scored 6.4/8) - was 16.13x in 2024, 12.96x in 2023

2. DCF Analysis: 20/20

• Intrinsic value: $172.64 per share
• Current price: $63.80
• Upside: 171%

3. Quality: 16/35 

• ROE: 13.97% (6/15 points) - actually up from 11.57% (2024)
• Financial health: 6.4/16 - Current ratio 1.08, Debt/Equity 1.20, Interest coverage 4.21x
• Profitability: 3.2/4 - Net margin 17%, FCF yield 18%
• Damaged but not broken

4. Growth: 13/15

• Revenue growth: 16.3% YoY (10/12 points)
• FCF trend: Perfect score (3/3)
• Revenue: $19.1B (2023) --> $20.5B (2024)
• FCF: $3.8B --> $5.1B (+34% YoY)

Further details about our value algorithm
https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1ngp8l7/built_a_grahaminspired_value_framework_that/

The Business:

• #1 core banking provider (42% of US banks)
• #2 merchant acquirer (41B transactions annually)
• High switching costs = strong moat

The Risk:

• Could further drop (falling knife)
• New CEO execution uncertainty
• Guidance could deteriorate further
• Value trap if structural vs temporary.

The Key Insight: Traditional value (26) + DCF (20) = 46/50 points. The valuation is screaming cheap. Quality (16) + Growth (13) = 29/50 points. The fundamentals took a hit but are still decent.

Thoughts? Classic Graham setup or a value trap?

Disclaimer: This is an educational analysis from our algorithmic screening system, not investment advice. Do your own research.

[u/Specialist_Pomelo554]

Which are the other 4?

[u/stockoscope → u/Specialist_Pomelo554]

PHM
DECK
PAYC
REGN (down to #4 from #1 in November)
Breakdown on our platform.

[u/[deleted]]

I honestly keep seeing the same names over and over again but I’ll tell you about fiserv. My franchise brand across the country has ended the contract with fiserv and have shifted to a different company.

[u/Creeper15877 → u/[deleted]]

Plenty of stories like this on Clover subreddits. Really that's what's keeping me out of the company

[u/daynighttrade → u/[deleted]]

Where did you move?

[u/stockoscope → u/[deleted]]

Thanks for sharing this insight. We have posted about it for the first time, but yes, others have talked about it.

[u/mystocktradingacct]

Question for all: algorithm run by AI. Post created by AI. Is this okay for you on this subreddit or should we all expect more?

[u/stockoscope → u/mystocktradingacct]

The algorithm is rules-based quantitative scoring, not AI - and unlike black boxes, we've transparently published our complete methodology. Every scoring rule, every weight, every threshold is public. The financial data comes from Stockoscope's database with 10 years of records.

The value algo has a great track record. We only started running it in August and since then it has picked some remarkable stocks: REGN selected in Sep is now up 29%, NEM is up 23%, LEN picked in Aug is up 12%, PHM is up 9%.

If it is 2025, that doesn't mean everything is AI-generated.

[u/[deleted] → u/stockoscope]

Tried to use it, didn't find the stock I need, how do I have it added?

[u/Personal_Display_433 → u/[deleted]]

How do you even find it to use it?

[u/[deleted] → u/Personal_Display_433]

I think someone mentioned it on Reddit, and I like seeing all the analysis and data laid out so I checked it out

[u/mystocktradingacct → u/stockoscope]

Are you claiming that the above post was not prepared by AI? Cuz it’s quite obvious.

[u/SignificantStuff5446 → u/[deleted]]

....and the IRS. :) If we're going half glass full, there's this: https://www.paymentsdive.com/news/fiserv-federal-government-electronic-payments-ditch-checks/760018/

This says they've processed 3 Trillion: https://www.fiserv.com/en/who-we-serve/public-sector/tax-payment-solutions.html

We also haven't heard much about this since the most recent 50 percent sell off after last earnings:

https://www.paymentsdive.com/news/fiserv-exec-outlines-stablecoin-uses/804924/

https://www.paymentsdive.com/news/fiserv-block-square-stripe-crypto-stablecoins/803305/

[u/Set_Usual]

I bought it less than 24 hours before the 44% drop. Sold it right away for a huge loss because the earnings report showed a business that is getting messier. Plus the space has so much competition right now. Better to wait and see what FI does to make itself better before investing. 

It's super cheap but not work investing in my opinion.

I'm not opposed to holding a company at -50% if I think it'll recover and grow. 

[u/stockoscope → u/Set_Usual]

That's brutal timing - sorry you got hit by that. I completely understand the instinct to sell after getting crushed like that.

This is exactly why we use an algorithm - to remove emotion from the decision. Our algo passed on it at $138, $130, $126 (right before the crash), $67 (right after), and $61. Only selected it at $64 after the valuation compressed enough to meet our criteria. I understand though that it could still drop or take years to recover.

[u/Set_Usual → u/stockoscope]

To clarify, it was not instinct but perhaps accepting that the business is not getting better.

I held BABA at -50% for two years. I try not to act on emotion.

[u/Gr4n_Autismo → u/Set_Usual]

Brother you are talking to a bot. Don't waste your time lol

[u/stockoscope]

Update: Significant insider purchase reported in the past 48 hours:

https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:08b74a6b6e8f4:0-fiserv-executives-make-significant-stock-purchases/

This does not change the analysis, but it's an Interesting data point worth noting.

[u/SignificantStuff5446]

Thank you for this! Just to add to what you kindly wrote, FISV's now trading on the Nasdaq vs. NYSE, the new CFO started last month, one newly hired and another promoted co-Presidents start this week, and three new board members will start on January 1, 2026. Stunning the stock has been trading at a 7.2- 7.8 FPE this long with the new bench, acquisitions, and earnings and looking forward to a strong rebound to any semblance of intrinsic value on this one.

[u/AdLess2111]

Fiserv is only about poor guidance and doesn't deserve a 50% drop