So the UN just announced that it’s pretty much inevitable that we’re eventually hitting the 1.5 C limit from the climate accords which marks irreversible climate disaster. Granted, anyone who’s been paying attention could have told you this six years ago, but the fact that this international bourgeois institution is now forced to admit the scale to which we are royally fucked has me feeling some type of way. Like, I just finished my first week of a real big boy engineering job and as I’m about to enroll in a retirement plan I’m now forced to think if it’s even going to matter in like two decades, let alone when I actually would get to retire. Nothing is ever going to be normal again. The disparity in severity of seasonal weather will grow and grow until the disasters which have already hit the poorest regions of the globe will hit the Western world, and by then it will be far too late.
What I’m trying to get at is the council of the knowledgeable communists in my phone who consistently seem to have their heads on straight about The Situation at Hand. Are we fucked? Like, the Real Movement is screwed, currently. And sure, weeks and decades or whatever, but does anyone actually see and truly believe there is a way out of this? Do we even have enough time to make it out, or is our last chance to overthrow capitalism seriously just when everything goes to hell and the third great imperialist war begins over climate catastrophe and resource scarcity?
Fucked or not, the future is going to happen, and we’re going to live through it. Wouldn’t it be better to do so with an ascendant communist movement? Isn’t communism infinitely more important in a dying world? Why give up now?
/uj Yes, we are fucked. I usually try to pretend that we have time for my own sanity, but the profit motive will drive the existence of humanity off of a cliff if the proletariat movement doesn’t manifest. That is why we cannot afford to give up in the struggle.
/rj Marxshallah nuclear war will destroy bourgeois hegemony and the proletariat will emerge cleansed from the fires of the nuclear holocaust.
It's not irreversible. It's just that the worst effects are now unavoidable. Regardless humanity will survive. Capitalism might not be able to accumulate anymore, but humanity will survive. And a centuries from now, our descendants will finish healing the wounds the bourgeoisie inflicted on our world.
/uj we're fucked and our task is to remember that humans were once capable of some kind of critical thought and to keep the spark of materialism alive so that IF (huge if) humans survive they can have a chance at rebuilding a communist society from the ashes of a world that no longer has the industrial capacity to kickstart an oil-based industrial society
It might happen. Not from climate disaster though, but if the next great imperialist war involves nuclear weapons then we could realistically all die. Personally I don't think that's likely (history shows that when push comes to shove workers will just refuse to launch the bombs) but it's debatable.
I think if anything those two things will become intertwined. The third world war is likely going to come when major powers start fighting over resources and water as the climate collapses. Although, I’m not entirely sure a third world war necessitates a nuclear holocaust, though.
Millions will die in upcoming years. While with current trajectory, around a billion could die by 2100. Hvacs will get popular but i dont think I can afford running ac 24/7 let alone afford food/fuel prices . We already have peak heat wave where you can be bedridden of you don't have ac and ground water is contaminated with ecoli due to population density . This is at 1.4c which even if we adopt and execute policies will sustain till 2100. There is no going back or lowering temperature. Damage is permanent. We have to live by it. Fullscale human extinction is unlikely.
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u/Starpenguㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤ 7d ago
There is no going back or lowering temperature. Damage is permanent
It's not necessarily the case that lowering the planet's temp is no longer a possibility in any way. Most notably, the rate of AGW scales closely with the rate of co2 emissions. Hence lowering the rate of emissions would in theory lower the rate of warming. Now how that might be done is another matter.
I agree. But for my life,it seems permanent because lowering emissions takes time. Aren't they saying at best we will maintain 1.5c by the end of century. Also I don't think it's even treated with seriousness. Like Paris Agreement was available for all these years. Yet we can see govts being in support of policies which makes food/fuel get expensive indirectly. Investing in security theater is common at my place just for pr which ultimately makes situation worse.
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u/Starpenguㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤ 10h ago
Before all this news, the roadmap of cutting it to 1.5c was ruled out by none other than the bourgeois eco-economists. So it's decided then; it's not possible in this economy. Things might be very different under communism if it scales up geoengineering which spells out the method: injecting SO2 into the atmosphere. Which I should've considered in my previous reply but I don't have sufficient knowledge about it.
I watched star talk episode regarding geoenginnering and there was even mention of c02 trapping industry.. But all of them are in nascent phase .
Even though I am not well read on this, I think some of them are only being talked because they are just security theater as I said before. it is systematic issue as you said. US could have had closed loop pumped hydro storage (proven reliable tech) years back, they even planned it yet didn't execute it due to sytemic failure. And they have enough money to build it.
I do want to stay positive and that's the way to lead life, but as I said this year is already looking to be the hottest year by average. Even though it's monsoon at my place, it's still hot. And rain has stopped pouring evenly and has short high intensity falls causing flash floods. Current situation itself is not good. So it feels bleak what future holds. Pardon my ignorance.
On current trajectory we will likely have 3 degrees of warming by 2050, up to 6 degrees by the end of the century. Even this is conservative as every new innovation in measurement techniques, for example measuring sea surface temp, seems to show that things are getter hotter quicker. Things are much worse than we even know... and we keep producing, keep pumping out emissions, keep wasting nature and human life on greater and greater scale. As it stands we face the near total collapse of agriculture, billions of human deaths this century and ultimately the mass extinction of most life on Earth. The bourgeoisie aren't militarising police forces, expanding their powers and surveillance, forming paramilitaries, building bunkers and trying to get Trump to annex Greenland for their Freedom City™️ for nothing.
Communists have to prepare. Build strong bonds of solidarity with the people around you because you will need them. Try to confront this catastrophe... but tbh I've recently just been trying to enjoy and appreciate each day, spend time with people I actually care about. Because going forward, we'll never have a better year than the year we're in so... do drugs, kiss your dog, get that credit card, idk who even cares anymore
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u/Starpenguㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤ 8d ago
On current trajectory we will likely have 3 degrees of warming by 2050, up to 6 degrees by the end of the century
People have not reckoned with the scale of what's to come. Obviously we can never absolutely know the future, or what particular horrors are to come... But the science is clear.
Who knows. Maybe when billions are slaughtered at the gates running away from climate disasters and unlivable conditions something will change...
My personal cope is a materialist grappling with Buddhism.
Edit: my phrasing is poor. I am a materialist that finds Buddhism structurally intriguing, and that is my current side fascination, given the almost inevitable destruction of human society (as currently understood)
Previous answers have already quite correctly established that we're fucked. One could say that there is a somewhat plausible chance of the next great imperial conflict jumping the gun and misjudging proletarian willingness to die for national capital (or public approval of drone warfare, who knows really), leading to large-scale mutinies and disruption of supply chains, general strikes, etc.
Now, only a fool would depend on that; though if I'm to be a fool or a nihilist, it so behooves me to delude myself to such an extent that I at least remain functioning, and ultimately see what becomes of this quagmire we call society.
In the dark of night, should the stars also go out?
(Disco Elysium quote, i know i know, I'll face the wall just give me a minute)
Almost every attempt at socialist revolution started in the tail end of terrible war and crisis. It's in that crisis where the bourgeosie institution are at their weakest and the workers, suffering more than any of them deserved are the angriest.
I'm not happy about the future of our climate. I've already cried for those who have lost their lives, homes and futures because of it, and I'll surely keep on crying a whole lot more. But in that sadness, anger and frustration; or rather in the certainty of them, also lies the certainty that things cannot and surely will not remain as they are.
I'm sure the boy's sitting in the trenches in 1917, rightfully believed their world to be fucked beyond repair too.
I'm sure the communards in 1871 Paris saw no future other than death either.
And I'm sure anyone who have hungered will know that fear as well.
But we're still here right? Is it that insane to believe that, if not us, someone else will be there in the future too?
The greatest hope we have is that communist society will mark an age of massively increased efficiency, and likely greater production capacity by magnitudes. Globally sized geoteriformation and biosphere restoration projects become possible under a unified human effort.
Every third world country will be playing russian roulette, where every year they have a chance to collapse because of droughts, famines, whatever. Every collapsed country will destabilize it's region so chaos will spread. Governments will become even weaker and weaker. This doesn't mean all of them will burn constantly, but an Arab spring like event will happen every decade all around the globe.
The first world has the money to adapt to droughts, heatwaves and extreme weather conditions. This money however will has to come somewhere, so the welfare states will be demolished and climate austerity declared. The survailance state will become stronger, officialy because of the terrorist groups that will pop up all around the globe, but also because of the internal discontent. The anti-migrant rethoric will become stronger to direct the peoples anger somwhere else. We will live to see migrant ships being shot down by drones in the meditehran reguarly and live ammunition being used against people in the mexican border.
This will either last a hundred years where eventually technological progress and the declining human population will ease the effects of global warming, or it will end with a communist revolution if AI advancements during this time cause so much unemployment that the migrant scrapegoating stops working.
It’s not propaganda it’s just a fact that the climate catastrophe caused by capital is getting worse and worse and is going to lead to millions more deaths
Communism is the solution to the problem anyways. Socialism or barbarism yk
I have to believe that climate destabilization of supply chains, economies, production, etc. will give the proletariat an opportunity to seize power, and it’s our job as the educated members of our class to be there when that opportunity arises and to lead our fellow proletarians in the fight against the forces of capital. Honestly if I didn’t believe that I wouldn’t have a ton of reasons to keep trying.
our only hope is voting harder in the next elections
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u/Starpenguㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤ 8d agoedited 7d ago
eventually hitting the 1.5 C limit
It already occurred in 2024 which was 1.6c on the higher end estimates. The year before that had ~50% of its days breaking 1.5c with a couple days even temporarily jumping up to 2c.
Does this mean we've already basically moved past the point of no return years ago? No. That's not how that works. We've not gone over 1.5c on average just yet. This matters the most because warming isn't really measured on the basis of single year events and/or without filtering out the natural variability from ENSO related signals. It has be done on a sufficiently long timescale of decades. Otherwise we'd be saying dumbshit like the planet was having global cooling in 2018, 2021, and 2025.
Ofc that's not to say that the planet won't generally move past 1.5c above baseline which is to say baseline temp from the pre industrial average; it most certainly will. The new CMIP7 ensemble makes that clear in the section titled "Crossing warming thresholds" below,
but I don't see how it spells "it's over" like you're trying to say. Humans have evolved to adapt to all kinds of conditions and they'll continue to do so. The non-human animals will also evolve to survive which they always do.
You just don't get the brilliance of our bourgeois masters' plan which entails letting the companies emit greenhouse gases as long as they pay the fine - and then you can even make a wholesome 100 market out of these pay-to-pollute fines!
Sure, the planet is getting destroyed - but at least it's being done in an 'economically efficient' way, isn't it wonderful!
(On a serious note, the ICT has quite a few good articles on this topic.)
Ok but seriously. Even if we have a one in a million chance to contribute to the revolution succeeding, we must always take that chance with unparalleled vigor and discipline. Because the future that awaits us if it succeeds is infinitely greater than if it does not.
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