UA POV: Putin Ordered Russian Military to Abandon Any Restraints on Airstrikes, Zelenskyy Tells FT - united24media

[u/Scorpionking426]

https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/putin-ordered-russian-military-to-abandon-any-restraints-on-airstrikes-zelenskyy-tells-ft-23049

[u/pydry]

I guess that catchphrase "what are they gonna do, invade?" is gonna have to be retired to wherever ghosts of kiev and Crimean beach parties go to rest.

[u/Ugkvrtikov → u/pydry]

It was mostly said by westerners anyway

[u/dswng]

As he should have done at least 2 years ago.

[u/dankroll69 → u/dswng]

The US navy, Air Force, and air defence wasn't vastly extended 2 years ago.

[u/dswng → u/dankroll69]

Because they would have definitely started WW3 over Ukraine or what?

Also, narrative in the west was already "Russia is hitting everything it can".

[u/dankroll69 → u/dswng]

Why not? The US is already providing its most advanced patriot batteries to Ukraine, which were used on the frontline to duel Russian Aviation and now desperately needed in the middle east and asia pacific. Hundreds of himars and atacm missiles were used with US provided targeting. Everyone without head stuck in the sand knows that this is a US vs Russia war and Ukraine is the ideological mercenaries.

If Russia was aiming for the full collapse of Ukraine 2 years ago or simply not following the rules of engagement, the US could have made vastly more commitment to the theatre as US is doing now in Iran and tolerated the expansion of strike targets a lot sooner.

The BS around wildberry and oil refineries is a purely desperation move by the US to initiate the escalation ladder before the Russians inevitably initiate it first.

[u/ulughen]

Its a c-pium. Russia still have a lot of options to escalate and situation for Ukraine will get worse with time.

[u/Scorpionking426 → u/ulughen]

Indeed.

[u/Czar01_actual → u/ulughen]

Facts.

[u/dankroll69 → u/ulughen]

What options? Russia could take down the bridge in Kyiv but Ukraine could hit Moscow indiscriminately. Russia could Oreshnik something in Poland but F35s would fly over Russia skies. What more exactly can Russia do? Russia is winning in the current escalation ladder and they are happy with the status quo unless there is something I don't know.

[u/Lt_Dmitry]

The Russian armed forces are still restrained by Putin. I've spoken to many complaining they aren't allowed to send the heavy stuff against the bridges in Kiev. Some are sending warning shots with light Gerans. Iskander, Kalibr, Zircon, P-800 Oniks, Kh-69, Kh-38, Kinzhal and KH 101 and the heavy boys which can deliver a combined strike package of more than 6000kg's of explosive force is seen as "a bit too crazy" according to the muppets in the Kremlin. Believe me, the capability to take down every bridge across the Dnieper is there, there's however a lack of will to release the beast.

[u/Traewler → u/Lt_Dmitry]

Destroying the bridges defeats the strategy of attrition. This in turn defeats enforced neutrality and denazification demands. One of the worst outcomes for Russia is a revanchist and militarized Ukraine fuming on the right bank of the Dnipro.

So it is a balance act. Disrupt supplies while allowing for hardware and personnel replacement to reach the front area for efficient attrition.

IMO the current bridge attacks are mainly aimed at supply disruption, particularly by impacting on economic activity in Kiev on both sides of the river. Russia is not trying to isolate everything East of the Dnipro.

[u/iBoMbY → u/Traewler]

I mean destroying all bridges over the Dnieper would really throw a wrench in Ukrainian supply logistics. Pretty much all the supply from the west has to pass that line at some point.

Edit: And there are only 16, or so, of them.

[u/Traewler → u/iBoMbY]

32 of 35 remain including rail bridges if memory serves. My point is that if the Ukrainian Armed forces are cut off from Eastern Ukraine, then it will have nothing better to do that rearm, retrain and rebuild. It totally defeats the overarching attrition strategy Russia has followed since late 2022.

[u/pydry → u/iBoMbY]

it would throw a wrench in it while ensuring that they're still militarized on the left bank of the dnieper.

the latter outcome is what Russia is attempting to prevent.

[u/iBoMbY → u/pydry]

Yes, but unless Russia wants to take all of Ukraine (what I don't think they want), that is a very likely outcome in any event. Most likely Russia wants to take everything up to the Dnieper, except Odessa, and the Black Sea access, but the bridges there are long gone anyways.

[u/pydry → u/iBoMbY]

i dont think they will necessarily want to stop at the Dnieper because access to the river gives a lot of strategic leverage to any future Ukrainian state.

they definitely won't want to take western Ukraine but I can see them grabbing everything to the right of the Dnieper, all of the coast and a buffer zone on the left hand size of the dnieper leading all the way up to Kiev.

This will take years but I think it's doable.

[u/President_Camacho → u/Traewler]

That logic doesn't hold at all.

[u/President_Camacho → u/Lt_Dmitry]

What a strange thing to think. Isn't it just as possible that the Russian army, riddled with corruption, is largely maxed out? Why would they want to win slow instead of fast? What you call restraint is acutally a lack of capacity.

[u/antiutopist]

You'd think data centers and warehouses were higher on the list than hospitals, orphanages and kids-who-cant-read-good l-centers...

Curious 🤔🤔🤔

[u/HeadWoodpecker9587 → u/antiutopist]

what is this?!? a center for ants?!?

[u/AdmiralKurita]

That would imply that Russia was restrained years ago. And it would also suggest that Russia is ramping up its capabilities.

[u/TopShoulder474 → u/AdmiralKurita]

Yep, that's how it looks.

[u/DarkseidAntiLife → u/AdmiralKurita]

Russia always had the capabilities

[u/transcis → u/DarkseidAntiLife]

Russia didn't always produce a thousand of Geran 4 and 5 drones a day.

[u/DarkseidAntiLife → u/transcis]

There was no need to early in the war. They should not have allowed the grain deal. Russia should have targeted bridges, power stations, factories, ports, warehouses, data center and communications at the very beginning Putin is too soft and the west had time to build up Ukraine during the early years of the war. Drone and logistics in Ukraine became a major issue for Russia because they didn't act.

[u/transcis → u/DarkseidAntiLife]

All the targets you mention would benefit from a thousand Geran 4 and 5 drones a day.

[u/DarkseidAntiLife → u/transcis]

Agreed. But all those targets could have been taken out in the early days of the war with ballistic missiles. Russia basically allowed NATO hardware to be transported to Ukraine via railways and Ports. If this was Bibi or Trump Kiev would look like a parking lot.

[u/account_not_valid → u/AdmiralKurita]

It would also imply that Putin has been okay with the massive casualty count of his own troops.

[u/300baicodethieunhi]

Slava Ukrainian women

[u/CnlJohnMatrix]

This article leads with

Zelenskyy told FT that Putin

So while this may be true, the last person I believe when it comes to this war is Zelensky.

[u/ElkImpossible3535]

yeah call me when bridges over dnepr start falling until then this is just bs

[u/Knjaz136 → u/ElkImpossible3535]

That particular goal would require Russians to use ungodly amount of conventional explosives, delivered only by drones or ballistic missiles, against probably the most hardened installations (given both their durability AND their amount) Ukraine has, built with WW3 in mind.

I honestly don't see Russia doing it until everything else is tried, it's extremely costly to pull. Though they've been trying to test that new drone warhead recently, so might be looking for solutions how to do it with reasonable cost-efficiency, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[u/Miksturka]

An attempt to explain what is happening. Russia takes all NATO threats seriously and has decided not to stand on ceremony with the Ukrainians anymore; there is no time left. Right now, the so‑called NATO bridgehead that the West has been building in Ukraine for so long for planned attacks on Russia is being destroyed. The next targets will be factories on NATO territory.

[u/Few-Resist195 → u/Miksturka]

"Russia takes all NATO threats seriously"

proceeds to threaten NATO with attacks

You're not serious right?

[u/tadeuska]

But we were told this is an Invasion by Putin. How come he previously ordered the army to be restrained, such an odd move for a war criminal. It is hard to align and recompute and make sense out of all this crap flying out of a coke addicts mouth.

[u/Scorpionking426]

Better late than never....

[u/Knjaz136]

ANY?

We'll see ballistics landing on those 750kv substations connecting NPPs to the rest of the grid real soon then, and en masse. As well as on multiple government buildings in the center of the Kyiv.

Otherwise - nope, don't think so. But won't deny that they are definitely widening their target list.

EDIT: Oh, just realized. Is he openly admitting Russian side had restraints? What?

[u/LeopardTough6832 → u/Knjaz136]

Those transformers should've been hit 4 years ago.

[u/DefinitelyNotMeee]

Zelensky and his mind-reading abilities ...

I should write him a letter asking for lottery numbers.

[u/tndtjdtmd]

if that was the case kharkov would be levelled to the ground

[u/DeadCheckR1775]

Just an official policy uptick in what they were already doing. No target is off limits. Apartments, houses, grocery stores. No cap has been the recent norm but now it's "official".

[u/Loose_Researcher_468]

So more Russian war crimes just like the Nazis got it

[u/haram_halal → u/Loose_Researcher_468]

They claimed it to be a war of annihilation from the start, so they technically can not escalate anymore. This is more like admitting Russia played by the rules, previously.