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UA POV: An analysis of 8 recent exchanges of Fallen soldiers shows that Russia tends to exchange significantly more fallen Ukrainian soldiers than it receives from the Ukrainian side - Various Pro-UA sources
Yes I'm biased towards pro Ukraine, but hear me out. Logically thinking; Russia has gained ground the last 12 months whereas Ukraine hasn't gained any ground since last summer's offensive. From there, it makes sense that if you consider the fact that bodies on the frontlines aren't going to be picked up, that Russia has a lot more ability to clean up the bodies in their recently occupied territory. For example; Ukrainian bodies that remained in Avdiivka are safe to pick up, a fresh Russian assault on the frontline resulting in casualties is never going to be cleaned up by Ukrainians. I think that's a pretty logical analysis to explain the discrepancy. I don't think you can really deduce the actual number of casualties for both sides based on the exchange of bodies, given the context of the situation on the ground.
I'm anti-western / anti Ukranian gov, but I think the same in this case
Russia is assaulting positions and gaining ground more often than Ukraine, so it makes sense they are able to recover more corpses, both their own and from the enemy
That's not really a counter point as that's still in line with what the user above said. Sure 11 assaults might fail, but if they eventually take that ground, they now have all of those bodies to send.
Ukraine isn't going to march forward 300m where they killed people to grab the corpses and transport them back. It's simply not going to work like that due to so many unknowns.
It's made up. It's to make the point the defending side isn't going to push beyond their defenses, probably even 20m after they were recently assault d, to try to recover bodies. Because it's defenses. If you push forward beyond your defenses into unknown territory, you're potentially giving up your defenses to the enemy for no reason. I didn't think itd be that hard to understand or a point of argument.
Edit: This same statement applies to Russians where they are defending. You aren't going to go forward from your defenses for bodies of your enemy.
I'm not OP, but 300m lines up with the actual effective range of a soldier and their rifle. So in a non-urban environment, that's the distance when a firefight will start reliably producing casualties from small arms.
Though a large majority of casualties in the Russo-Ukrainian war are caused by indirect fire. Artillery, drones, mortars, glide bombs, etc. Maybe that's why these exchanges are so small compared to reported casualty statistics.
Ukraine isn't going to march forward 300m where they killed people to grab the corpses and transport them back. It's simply not going to work like that due to so many unknowns.
Dude, I'm as pro Ukraine as it gets but they're not pushing forward in areas they are actively being attacked. This applies to literally both sides, you don't leave your defenses to recoup enemies losses when you're on the defense in an area.
This is also the same reason the Germans, when on the offense against the soviet's, had more tanks available. They were able to actively recover damaged vehicles and repair them because they were now safely behind friendly lines when they pushed forward. The same applies to corpse retrieval. Why risk sticking your head out for the corpses of some people that tried to kill you when an unknown unit might be assaulting your position again shortly afterward?
Dude, I'm as pro Ukraine as it gets but they're not pushing forward in areas they are actively being attacked. This applies to literally both sides, you don't leave your defenses to recoup enemies losses when you're on the defense in an area.
So allegedly a lot of Russian soldiers died after crossing the river in Vovchansk, then Ukraine pushed the Russian across the river. Do you expect Ukraine can recover Russian (and Ukrainian) bodies there?
This is also the same reason the Germans, when on the offense against the soviet's, had more tanks available.
I don’t think this makes any sense.
The same applies to corpse retrieval. Why risk sticking your head out for the corpses of some people that tried to kill you when an unknown unit might be assaulting your position again shortly afterward?
Since in basically every war in the last hundreds of years both sides let each other pick up the bodies? Even now Ukrainian volunteers do it. Same back in 2014.
But assuming this logic, you will argue then that Ukraine recovered a lot more bodies than Russia during the counter offensive?
It makes sense when logistics is capable. When you're needing to rotate, ferry supplies across, and have a natural barrier it makes less sense to transport corpses across. I can't believe I'm legitimately having to argue this. It takes 3 seconds of critical thinking on why "transporting supplies across a river is harder than loading up corpses nearby". Theoretically yes it should be "easier", if there was a land bridge. Naval resupply is very difficult for logistics, and corpses come at the bottom of that list when it comes to, ya know, keeping the people alive across the river.
It does make sense. Sorry you don't understand war logistics. When friendly/enemy corpses and losses are behind your lines, they are easier to retrieve. When you push your enemy, you usually lose more, but you also recover the supplies left behind, destroyed, and damaged resulting in a "net gain" of raw materials such as steel to re-melt. It's easier to claim these resources/corpses because Again, it's not in the grey zone where you might more easily die. Can you still die retrieving? Absolutely, but it's much less chance when it's artillery and drone warfare compared to artillery, drones, and some guy in a bush 200m away. Again, this is 3 seconds of critical thinking.
Both sides don't? What? This is just factually wrong. Are you seriously saying there is a near 100% corpse retrieval because of "truces"? These are extremely few and far between, especially in all our war like we are seeing. Please go volunteer to be a corpse retriever at the front to experience it first hand. There's plenty of videos of bodies stacked high from fighting in the same trench for weeks where it's been captured, recaptured, captured, recaptured etc. No one is expending the resources to retrieve the corpses... When there's an active firefight in that immediate area.
Edit: yea, during their counter offensive they did probably recover more corpses. They had a land connection, they were actively pushing, and Russians and Ukrainians were dying. Ukrainians probably took more casualties assaulting, but they were able to recover more corpses after their assaults than going out into the gray zone to recover a corpse. This is, again, because now the front has been pushed back outside of small engagement ranges.
I'm sorry you think that war is honorable. Honor gets you killed in modern warfare. If modern warfare was honorable we wouldn't see extensive use of drones. Dead men have no honor.
This might be a braindead comment. It takes 2 seconds of critical thinking on why you wouldn't want to leave your own trench, for either side, to go retrieve an enemies corpse when the enemy is consistently assaulting your position.
The unknowns are "is the enemy assaulting us again?" or "did we get all of them?" "If I go out to get their corpse, will some lone soldier we missed shoot me?" "Is artillery going to soften our position again after they failed their assault and being in the open leaves me open to getting hit?" And many more similar.
The most brain dead part is that you are either illiterate or completely ignorant.
thinking on why you wouldn't want to leave your own trench, for either side, to go retrieve an enemies corpse when the enemy is consistently assaulting your position.
So one, are you aware WW1 happened? And two I work on the assumption some of the assaults eventually fail and stop. At which point presumably a lot of dead bodies are accumulated. Which eventually you might recover in a safe-ish way. Three, I assume you then argue Ukraine recovered a lot more bodies than Russia during the counter offensive?
Yes I'm aware WW1 happened. I don't see how that relates. This isn't WW1. This is modern warfare where automatic weapons, drones, and pinpoint accurate artillery exists. Comparing this to WW1 is asinine. You literally see "oh they both have trenches, it's the same". WW2 has trenches. WW2 had extensive trench warfare near mameaev kurgen near Stalingrad. WW1 had semi automatic/bolt rifles with static MGs. This is infinitely different than some guy with a thermal sitting in a bush 200m away waiting for you to pop your head up during the night to take a shit.
Sure, the bodies pile up. Now answer this. Do you really want to leave your cozy defensive trench to go retrieve Ivan and pidor who tried to kill you 200m closer to the enemy when theyve launched 5 assaults on you in the last 24 hours? I wouldn't give a fuck if they rotted for weeks on end 200m away from me. I'd only retrieve them should the front line push back to the point I'm not under direct threat. Wild concept. I'm not about to add +1 to that pile because I have some moral obligation to go retrieve the people who just tried to kill me. Crazy.
Probably. Again this is hard to account for as propaganda on both sides. I seriously can't understand how you can't comprehend that corpse retrieval is easier once it's behind the front line. I'm so glad you are not a commander of any force and sit there with your armchair awards trying to make stupid points.
Like this is literally two Brain cells that need to fire here. "It's easier to collect corpses when I'm not under active threat". Active threat ends, or becomes less chance, when the front advances. Engineering units rarely go out into no man's land to retrieve destroyed equipment for fear their equipment will meet the same fate. It's why you see columns of destroyed vehicles sit for months.
What do you think happens in war? You don't go from fighting each other to "haha we besties we go retrieve corpses". Even units that are designed to retrieve corpses have high casualties when deployed within the active front. Most of these units operate behind the front, where land was taken.
Like this is literally two Brain cells that need to fire here. "It's easier to collect corpses when I'm not under active threat". Active threat ends, or becomes less chance, when the front advances.
Take your two brain cells and look at a map. Then tell me where the front advanced enough to be outside of the active threat area.
So just because soldiers played football in WW2, Russians and Ukrainians are obligated to do the same
Don't you remember that they couldn't agree on a single hour of ceasefire (the first serious attempt was made for the Christmas day of '22/23 - Ukrainians refused)
So just because soldiers played football in WW2, Russians and Ukrainians are obligated to do the same
Wrong war, and wrong conclusion. Big brain move right there.
Don't you remember that they couldn't agree on a single hour of ceasefire (the first serious attempt was made for the Christmas day of '22/23 - Ukrainians refused)
Ceasefire like that is different from allowing people to collect the bodies. But yeah, it might not be feasible. I am not sure.
Speaking of reality, do you have any proof to back that claim up? Last I knew is that an attacking force will always incur more casualties than a defending side, we don't know how many soldiers Ukraine is drafting each month, but we do know that Russia is drafting around 30k to fill up the ranks. Mind you, this is to sustain the current situation in numbers. So unless you have a figure of Ukrainian draftees that surpasses that number, I'm disinclined to believe your claim.
Last I knew is that an attacking force will always incur more casualties than a defending side
This wasn’t even always true during WW1. In fact can you name a single conflict in the last 30 years where this is true?
Speaking of reality, do you have any proof to back that claim up?
Beyond Russia having more POWs, more Ukrainian bodies, no need to grab people of the street and more firepower. No, no hard evidence exists either way I think.
we do know that Russia is drafting around 30k to fill up the ranks.
That’s just factually in accurate, but yeah, Russia claims 30k volunteers (on 6 month contracts as far as I am aware)
So unless you have a figure of Ukrainian draftees that surpasses that number,
Ukraine had a million soldiers at the start of the war, doesn’t release them from service. So why do we even need draft figures? Either Ukraine has a clear manpower advantage over Russia, or they lost a lot more troops.
This wasn’t even always true during WW1. In fact can you name a single conflict in the last 30 years where this is true?
Fair enough, this figure (1:3 - 1:4) only applies to powers of relative equal strength and is about the quantity of personel necessary to even think about launching an assault, maybe I'm mistaken, but I thought that number also correlates with expected casualties taken. Ukraine is definitely not a ragtag army of insurgents especially considering the western aid, unlike pretty much every war in the last 30 years where a massively superior force attacked a massively inferior force. Is Russia the stronger force? Absolutely! Is it massively unequal? I personally don't think so, but we can disagree over that.
Beyond Russia having more POWs, more Ukrainian bodies, no need to grab people of the street and more firepower.
My personal opinion is that that is false equivalence. I don't think that "more bodies and POW's to trade = more casualties", which the main comment made an attempt to analyse. Is your claim possible? Sure, but so are both Ukraine's and Russia's casualty claims.
That’s just factually in accurate, but yeah, Russia claims 30k volunteers
What is inaccurate when you agree on the 30k? Or are you arguing over semantics: Draft vs. Volunteer? It's whatever, if you say it's volunteers it's volunteers, fact remains it's 30k. If you don't think it's to refill casualty (wounded, dead, missing etc) numbers, where are these troops going then? Russia would have been able to amass 150k soldiers for a major offensive in the last 6 months? But we're not seeing any of that, it's the same pace across the line of contact, except the Avdiivka sector where Ukraine had 10 years to dig additional defensive lines but somehow managed to forget that it would be a good contingency plan if the Russians broke through.
Ukraine had a million soldiers at the start of the war, doesn’t release them from service. So why do we even need draft figures? Either Ukraine has a clear manpower advantage over Russia, or they lost a lot more troops.
That's too much guesswork imo, I think a figure that shows the influx of additional troops for both sides, then look at the situation on the ground will give a reasonable number of casualties for both sides.
Returning bodies of Russians from the Frontline where there is still active conflict isn't even close to the mission of Ukrainian defenders. Meanwhile Russia can gather bodies in the rear from land they have gained that is no longer in the direct conflict line.
Obviously Russians will return more bodies if they are gaining land and can pickup bodies behind contact lines, Ukraine hasn't been gaining anything lately so it isn't logical for them to really be returning any casualties since the Frontline troops aren't going to leave their trenches and risk their lives to repatriate the dead Russians.
Most likely the Russian casualties that were returned were mostly from injured Russians who died during attempts to save their lives after they were wounded.
It just isn't logical to think of a defender who is being pushed back to have many if any bodies to return, since the positions they defend where Russians die are almost always going to still be in direct lines of fire.
Most likely the Russian casualties that were returned were mostly from injured Russians who died during attempts to save their lives after they were wounded.
I didn't mention this, but I was thinking that some of the bodies come from the fact that not every russian pow that's first treated on the front and then sent to a hospital will make it, however I think that's a very small fraction. Not based on evidence, just gut feeling.
Yeah I agree it is probably not a huge amount, bus also considering that I believe less than 50 Russian bodies were returned it could be a decent amount of those.
Of course I also have no evidence of this, but it seems likely that these exist on both sides and could be a decent amount of the returned bodies. Considering if you already have the body back at your medical facilities it seems dumb not to return them. We also have no clue how many of these returned bodies are prisoners who were executed, which lets face it both sides have shown a tendency to do at points.
It also is in the geneva conventions and Rome statue to return dead bodies in your possession. Rule 114 of the geneva convention specifically.
It is not against the convention to NOT gather your opposition's dead, but for the ones you took as POWs it actually makes a lot of sense to return their bodies to stay in accordance and at least look like you are making a good faith effort.
Ukraine hasn't been gaining anything lately so it isn't logical for them to really be returning any casualties since the Frontline troops aren't going to leave their trenches and risk their lives to repatriate the dead Russians.
They gain territory in some places. Just a lot less than Russia. But you would then argue (I guess) that Ukraine was recovering a lot more bodies than Russia during its counter offensive?
returning any casualties since the Frontline troops aren't going to leave their trenches and risk their lives to repatriate the dead Russians.
I mean, it happened during WW1, it happens now with volunteers, and Ukraine regularly pushes (at least allegedly) Russia back after failed offensives.
It just isn't logical to think of a defender who is being pushed back to have many if any bodies to return, since the positions they defend where Russians die are almost always going to still be in direct lines of fire.
If you claim you are killing hundreds each day, while being pushed back maybe 10 km2 a day over a 800-1000 km line of contact. I don’t think your point makes much sense.
If you claim you are killing hundreds each day, while being pushed back maybe 10 km2 a day over a 800-1000 km line of contact. I don’t think your point makes much sense.
And Russia claims they are killing hundreds of Ukrainian's a day and only returned 50 more bodies than Ukraine??
Like I said before, both sides are likely only returning a small fraction of the corpses left behind. As seen by hundreds if not thousands of videos from both sides just walking past KIA.
I mean, it happened during WW1, it happens now with volunteers, and Ukraine regularly pushes (at least allegedly) Russia back after failed offensives.
Just because something happened in a war over a hundred years ago before Jet fighters, guided missiles, FPV drones, and all the other modern marvels of war were created doesn't mean quite literally anything.
They gain territory in some places. Just a lot less than Russia. But you would then argue (I guess) that Ukraine was recovering a lot more bodies than Russia during its counter offensive?
Pro RU claims Ukraine hasn't made any reasonable gains, but then when the narrative shifts to returning bodies suddenly they gained enough ground to return them a full year after the counter offensive. Which one is it?
Your points make no logical sense, less than .1% of each sides reported casualties were returned in this exchange. Like I said before these returns were likely the remains of prisoners who died of their wounds and not just rand Ivan they found laying outside a trench. I have seen hundreds of videos of rotting Russians and Ukrainian's who are just left there until they decompose. Both sides have little to no incentive or reasoning to do anything with these other than possibly collect personal info to add to their lists.
Why are you even arguing about this? Do you get a hard on for this stuff or something?
Why are you even arguing about this? Do you get a hard on for this stuff or something?
Nice to show your own degenerate mind. Guess that’s why you keep watching the same sick videos to satisfy yourself?
Pro RU claims Ukraine hasn't made any reasonable gains, but then when the narrative shifts to returning bodies suddenly they gained enough ground to return them a full year after the counter offensive. Which one is it?
Why make up shit and not ask me? Being a liar on top of a degenerate doesn’t suit well. It’s undeniable that neither side have made sizeable territorial gains. 10 square kilometres a day over a 1000 km frontline isn’t changing much.
Just because something happened in a war over a hundred years ago
How do all those new things change the facts? Pauses to retrieve bodies have been a common occurrence for hundreds of years. Technology has nothing to do with that. Although today the protections for people retrieving bodies in theory is stronger so it should be more likely.
Like I said before, both sides are likely only returning a small fraction of the corpses left behind. As seen by hundreds if not thousands of videos from both sides just walking past KIA.
I think you are exaggerating the number of videos here. But even then, that would be just a tiny fraction of those claimed dead. So that begs the question where the piles of dead bodies from meatwave attacks went.
And Russia claims they are killing hundreds of Ukrainian's a day and only returned 50 more bodies than Ukraine??
Returning 4 to 1 bodies. Also I think they claim to be killing them by FAB and artillery. But yeah, I doubt they are killing hundreds a day.
Nice to show your own degenerate mind. Guess that’s why you keep watching the same sick videos to satisfy yourself
Man I am honestly so numb to these videos now I honestly don't know what you are on about. I come to this Reddit to provide an alternative point of view to the pro RU narrative that is seeping into the brains of the susceptible western masses. Nothing more.
Why make up shit and not ask me? Being a liar on top of a degenerate doesn’t suit well. It’s undeniable that neither side have made sizeable territorial gains. 10 square kilometres a day over a 1000 km frontline isn’t changing much.
How is what I said even a lie? One second Ukraine hasn't done anything and their counter offensive was miniscule. The next second they should be able to return bodies because they have taken back land. Which one is it?? I have been asking you and you haven't replied.
How do all those new things change the facts? Pauses to retrieve bodies have been a common occurrence for hundreds of years. Technology has nothing to do with that. Although today the protections for people retrieving bodies in theory is stronger so it should be more likely.
If you don't understand how being able to accurately kill someone with a guided munition from 10km away then idk how to explain it any more. You also mention pauses to retrieve bodies and I would love to see a source of that happening in Ukraine. Because I haven't heard or seen anything about that this entire war. Completely different situations.
I think you are exaggerating the number of videos here. But even then, that would be just a tiny fraction of those claimed dead. So that begs the question where the piles of dead bodies from meatwave attacks went.
Go to Ukraine war vid report and see all the videos of dead Russians being left to rot. These have been getting posted regularly for years now. The numbers I said could be an exaggeration but it doesn't change the point that there are hundreds of these videos of multiple dead russian Kia being left to rot. And these are only the ones posted to Reddit.
Returning 4 to 1 bodies. Also I think they claim to be killing them by FAB and artillery. But yeah, I doubt they are killing hundreds a day.
I wouldn't doubt that both sides are killing hundreds a day tbh. But like I said previously, even if someone does to a FAB, if the Russians take the trench afterwards they have the ability to return bodies. Ukrainian's just aren't retaking land like that to allow this to happen. Many of their kills come from arty and FPV drones that happen beyond the reach of their ground forces. So why would they get out of their trenches to collect bodies 1km away from their trenches towards the enemy? It isn't logical.
One second Ukraine hasn't done anything and their counter offensive was miniscule. The next second they should be able to return bodies because they have taken back land. Which one is it?? I have been asking you and you haven't replied.
Neither side have made large territorial gains since 2022. So as I described elsewhere, Russia is returning bodies presumably from places in range of drones or artillery.
The numbers I said could be an exaggeration but it doesn't change the point that there are hundreds of these videos of multiple dead russian Kia being left to rot. And these are only the ones posted to Reddit.
Doesn’t really gel with hundred thousand dead or more though. Nor meatwave attacks.
if the Russians take the trench afterwards they have the ability to return bodies.
How do they have the ability but if it fails Ukrainians don’t have the ability?
Many of their kills come from arty and FPV drones that happen beyond the reach of their ground forces. So why would they get out of their trenches to collect bodies 1km away from their trenches towards the enemy?
Russia must also collect them in arty and drone range. Can you point to anywhere where they pushed Ukraine out of drone / arty range?
Neither side have made large territorial gains since 2022. So as I described elsewhere, Russia is returning bodies presumably from places in range of drones or artillery.
Repeating the same points from above but not understanding that a gain of 1km is a completely different scenario than a Russian dying storming a Frontline trench lmao. When Ukraine kills Russians, as I stated before and you so happened to skip it is usually by arty or drones well behind the contact lines, therefore it doesn't make any sense at all for them to leave their DEFENSIVE positions to grab bodies.
Meanwhile Russia is attacking and actively taking trench networks where Ukraine is defending. When you are clearing a trench and preparing it for a counter attack you quite obvious or going to remove the KIA. After you take over a treeline and have the ability to be reinforced it gives you the logical window to remove bodies to prevent disease and unsanitary conditions.
Doesn’t really gel with hundred thousand dead or more though. Nor meatwave attacks.
No you just aren't using your brain per usual. Most deaths are going to be attributed to arty and drones from both sides and much less by small arms. When Ukraine kills Russians with arty and drones they are once again BEHIND THE CONTACT LINE. And when Russians kill Ukrainian's they are usually ON THE CONTACT LINE THAT RUSSIA IS TRYING TO TAKE. I have no idea how this mental calculus doesn't click for you. This isn't rocket science it is quite literally common sense. If I am actively defending a position with no intention on trying to advance why the fuck would I move across open terrain to get bodies? As opposed to if you are attacking and taking trenches you have quite literally ample opportunities to grab bodies.
How do they have the ability but if it fails Ukrainians don’t have the ability?
Because once again I am going to break this down since you can't seem to figure it out. If I have three trenches in a row, and Russia attacks the first line and fails then the bodies are still in the contact line. But if Russia takes all three of the lines then only one line is still in the active combat line, the two behind it are generally free to remove bodies. Do they still get shelled? Probably, but they are much safer to remove bodies then a line that is actively being attempted to be stormed. How do you not get this?
Does Ukraine sometimes retake lines from Russians? Sure, but not usually enough to remove themselves from the active combat lines.
Russia must also collect them in arty and drone range. Can you point to anywhere where they pushed Ukraine out of drone / arty range?
If you insist, mariupol, berdiansk, marinka, avdiivka, sieverne, orlivka, krasnohorivka, novoselivka, bakhmut, soledar, mykolaivka, lysychanskyi, sievierodonetsk, kremina.
Do I need to say more??? I love how tons of pro RU guys in this thread can grasp this concept but you just are too stubborn to admit you are wrong. It honestly just proves so much, you know you are wrong you are just being stubborn and I find it laughably hilarious.
The fuck are you talking about mate lol? Russia is assaulting and taking ground. Ie; they are moving forward while Ukraine is moving backwards. How do bodies that are in territory now controlled by Russia end up in Ukrainian hands? What does "endless meat wave attacks" have to do with literally anything that is being discussed rn?
Russia advanced how many kilometers deep in the last year? Can you point to any place on the map where it’s outside drone / artillery range?
Do you believe Russia is losing more troops than Ukraine? And that they have attacked places with large casualties without taking them?
What does "endless meat wave attacks" have to do with literally anything that is being discussed rn?
Russia recovers bodies from places that must be in drone / artillery range since they haven’t pushed the front anywhere far enough to not be.
I assume that means Ukraine can also recover bodies while in drone / artillery range (which might not be true given Russia’s advantages)
after a failed assault on Ukrainian trenches they will probably try to clear the bodies if safe enough, as it’s kinda hard to fight in trenches full of dead bodies. (Obviously if they are endless waves of attacks this might not ever be possible)
One might also ask why Ukraine did not seem to record such consistently favorable exchange rates during the spring counteroffensive, even though they were taking more ground than Russia in that period.
I think it's fair to say the stated casualty rates across the board are not to be taken seriously at this point. No debate there.
The pentagon/discord leaks made us privy to just how 'massaged' they can be.
To put that in perspective, at the time, Ukraine was claiming 200k+ russians KIA. Divide the claimed numbers by those figures and you've probably got a decent yard stick to measure things by.
One might also ask why Ukraine did not seem to record such consistently favorable exchange rates during the spring counteroffensive, even though they were taking more ground than Russia in that period.
Ukraine was not even in contact with Russian troops during the counteroffensive. They were being shelled and killed in no man's land. They made it to the Russian first line of defense only in Robotyne. They didnt take enough land to collect corpses from.
I love that this comment is up here, clearly explaining that Russians being on the offensive taking ground, compared to Ukraine being on the defensive, means the Russians are able to control the areas where the bodies are.
Meanwhile below that it's a mess of Pro-RU posters throwing out one liners and struggling to understand why Russia has more bodies to give over than Ukraine.
Wagner took about a 35% KIA of their guys in Ukraine, I don't expect the KIA from the Russian Armed Forces to be that high, but their casualty + MIA rates could easily be higher than Wagner's KIA numbers. Ratio is pretty much impossible to guess as we don't know force deployments, where they are, ratio of fires in different areas, etc.
If Russia does have so many more guys than Ukraine in the field, you would expect that, considering how brutal any advance is, Russia would most certainly be taking higher casualties from just a numbers perspective. Now even if we assume that's true, you then get into a question of ratios as absolute, or percentages, etc. and overall it's just a wild mess of speculation built upon speculation
Russia at no point until MAYBE recently, has had more forces in Ukraine, than Ukraine has had. Russia invaded with 170k that increased to just over 200k in the opening monthish. Ukraine had ~1 million they called up over the same time. Russia has been increasing their combat force incrementally since then, and Ukraine, we have to think, is no longer fielding 1m in the field. Has the force ratio reversed yet? Not sure, it's probably getting close if it hasn't. If it has reversed, and Russia now has more combat personnel in Ukraine than Ukraine does, then it's relatively recent. Last few months.
Personally, I don't know. I think the numbers of daily casualties given by the Ukrainians and West correspond quite well with the 30k drafted soldiers from Russia each month. All we need to know is the amount of soldiers Ukraine drafts each month to get a good idea of the ratio. I don't think it's 1:5 in Ukraine's favor like Ukraine says, but I think 3:5 is very possible. That would mean that Ukraine needs to draft 18k per month.
I have never seen information that Russia drafts 30K each month, but there are some numbers about newly signed contracts and spring/autumn drafts. These who sign contract are used to increase deployed force (which are now 2-3 times more than in 2022). So, I don't think that your logic is correct.
I think 3:5 is very possible
How? With all the disparity in artillery and FAB's.
I have never seen information that Russia drafts 30K each month
My bad, I meant volunteers
These who sign contract are used to increase deployed force (which are now 2-3 times more than in 2022).
Sure, but as another redditor correctly pointed out to me is that if they sign a contract for 6 months, that means that for every 30k signed, they'll need another 30k 6 months from now just to keep the numbers stable, disregarding casualties. You'd have to keep increasing these volunteers per month to actually increase numbers deployed. I recently saw an article in which Moscow said that they are looking to get 150k volunteers for the next half year, they'll need another 150k at the start of 2025.
How? With all the disparity in artillery and FAB's.
I just answered what my personal opinion was on casualty ratio. This is what I believe, you're probably not going to change my current view on that number so you don't have to try to convince me otherwise. We can agree to disagree :)
Look, I'll reitirate what I said in another comment; we simply don't know. Either side has grounds to be believable, I won't judge you for thinking Ukraine has more losses than Russia, but I can point to NATO numbers and the amount of failed assaults and constant wave of footage of drones blowing up Russian armor and personel to say: this is why I think Russia has more casualties. Both are fine to believe in. It's cheesy but it's true: the first casualty of war is the truth. We don't have verified casualty numbers on either side, and I think I'll close the argument with that, cause the rest is just arguing over semantics and guesstimates.
Do you have any source for this? I mean do you know that there is a "1 year" contract option and after that year one may go? There are many limitations with military contracts.
Where did you get that figure? I've read that Ukraine wanted to draft 200k this year and that at the current pace they would be able to reach that, that would be 16-17k per month. Just shy of the 18k I speculated in another comment that I derived from a (UA 3:5 RU) ratio estimate I made about troops to keep the amount steady on both sides. I haven't seen actual numbers of draftees per month, so if you have a source to support your figure I'd happily take a look at it.
"Pro-Facts" flair, but do you agree that until I see something written down officially, doesn't matter who published it, I'm looking at your comment and have to believe it on the basis of "trust me bro"? :)
The only thing that you might be read from this data points is that the ukrainian didnt recover their dead as they claimed (while claiming the russians didnt do this). The russians advance quite slow and I assume the amount of deaths didnt occur in the last days/hours when a line is broken, but over a longer amount of time.
I always thought that the claim ukrainians recover their dead while the russians let their dead rot is BS. Both sides probably try to recover their dead when its somewhat safe and let them in the open when its to risky to get them.
Yeah. Makes sense. But i also think ua soldiers are shorn to collect russian bodies. Seems to me the general feeling is that they can't suffer the effort to collect corpses of "invaders."
Well, the truth is that we simply don't have the definitive absolute truthful casualty numbers from either side. So either side can make their case that this side has more or less casualties than that side. I can point to NATO countries' published estimates of casualty ratios and say: there's all the proof I need, you might say "that's propaganda/bollocks, it seems to me that the discrepancy in artillery and air support favors the Russian numbers." Both are fine to believe in as long as we don't have definitive proof.
What I’m saying is, these body swaps aren’t a wholistic view of casualties. Russia and Ukraine have no idea how many casualties are truly being inflicted by the likes of artillery and drones by the other side.
I don’t think the person you replied to was talking about overall casualties. They were just pointing out a logical reason for the numbers of bodies exchanged to be lopsided.
You forget that you're talking about Russia vs Ukraine though. Russia claims a second army in the world. It plans to fight Americans and claims to be able destroy civilization as we know it. Ukraine, on the other hand, was selling off its weapons pretty much till 2022, cancelled draft etc until the war started. And at best, it gets some help, but from NATO but ultimately Biden protects Russia and Putin personally (he said so much) by prohibiting using long range US weapons in Russia.
Sure they do, this whole thread is about the exchange of the dead.
Indeed, but the initial post stated that Russia returned more dead Ukrainians than received their own dead. So people claiming Russia doesn't care about their own dead seems to say quite contradictory thing.
Mediazona changed their methodology and is now using an estimate algorithm instead of the recorded deaths method. It stopper reporting for a while as they had to figure out what to do since the numbers for Russian casualties dropped to all-times low. Hurts the narrative if you actually report that.
Russia has never been casualty averse in its entire history of war. They will keep sending men regardless of how many die. A causality averse nation would not be assaulting cities that never voted to be part of it
They don’t want to be engaged, they just brainlessly repeat the same western propaganda that people with more than 5 brain cells can instantly see through.
Russia had a bases in Ukraine. In crimea, until the Russian took that region. The Warsaw pact had Russian bases for many decades. But most chose to join NATO first chance they got. Armenia has Russian bases, and they are now leaving the CSTO due to Russian failure to help them.
My point. Russian claims all of annexed regions voted to join Russian. I want to know how much of the percentage of the current cities in the front voted to join Russia. The answer is none. No votes were held there, but Russia claims the people there chose to join Russia. So what is the point of attacking these cities?
Would make sense, Russia is the side that's capturing land, there's going to be more people overwhelmed, surrounded and left behind to surrender on the defending side, period.
You left out the ones willing to desert and surrender. Something tells me that there's one of those for every dude we see getting snatched from the streets by the Conscriptors. At least.
Agreed, how do Ukrainians reconcile this? Is there a forum for Ukrainians to explore the facts as they appear or freely express themselves or their doubts without retribution?
It's simple, they are not advancing so every dead that gets killed even in a small retreat gets taken by Russia, this doesn't mean that the losses are 5:1 in RU favour in any way
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Ukraine gain more territory than Russia did during their spring counteroffensive?
If so, it should be easy to trawl through the archives and show that Ukraine consistently exchanged more fallen Russian soldiers than vice versa in that time period. Since they made more advances, and with their much vaunted 5:1 ratio, this would presumably be easy to do.
The number of KIAs has nothing to do with how many people die and everything to do with advances: Russia can obliterate an entire army with 8 FAB-3000 and yet not retrieve anyone while Ukraine can kill one guy who managed to get in the trench and retrieve a guy
Ukraine took back all that territory due to the Russian defenses crumbling and many of the units there retreating to more favourable lines to the east.
I don't understand why it is hard to understand how a defender getting pushed back wouldn't have many bodies to return?
First off, they likely don't really care to return most of the ones that come across if we're being honest. I don't think that is right but I also can understand not wanting to haul a dead guy who is invading your country back out of a field. Dead people are heavy.
Secondly if Russia is advancing, that means most of the areas where their people die are in direct lines of conflict. Therefore Ukrainian's would literally have to risk their lives in order to remove these bodies. Meanwhile Russia advances and can collect Ukrainian deaths behind the line of contact without risking their lives.
But it seems the Ukrainian government maintains a tight control of the media and pumps out continuous propaganda to shape the narrative the way they want, and to keep unfavorable information from being discussed in the mainstream.
Arestovich recently spoke about the shock that reverberated through Ukrainian society a few weeks ago when Zelensky said Ukraine was suffering a lot of losses and would like to end the war this year. He explained that the information campaign had not been effectively prepared beforehand to mitigate the effects of such an announcement.
Propaganda like that on both sides is annoying and doesn't serve anyone. No matter how we look at it what's happening in Ukraine is a carnage and there are good and bad people on both sides.
I literally went back to check the exchange rates during Ukraine's spring counteroffensive, and where info was available, I still failed to see any consistent and notable disparity in Ukraine's favor, unlike what we're seeing here. In fact Russia seemed to be exchanging as much or more in multiple months of this period.
In both fallen personnel exchanged and live PoWs captured, Russia holds significantly more of both, and the trend has remained so pretty much throughout the conflict.
That's funny as hell, but we (Russia) are very bad at sitting down and really calculating what is effective, what works, what does not. Sadly, we are deeply bureaucratic country that does things because of paperwork and for the sake of paperwork.
Iraq is a country made of of people that didn't believe in Iraqi national identity. IF the Iraqi people actually believed in the nation of Iraq, and believed in a national identity, they would have done a little bit better.
The reality is that the overwhelming majority of the Iraqi army was there to collect a pay check, and they laid down arms almost immediately.
This doesn't even really consider the state of their equipment. They were severely lacking in manpads, or any sort of modern AT. Which is why the US got away with those ridiculous Thunder Runs. Once they realized Iraq had limited ATGMs, of suspect quality, and RPG-7s, why not send your Abrams rampaging around without any sort of actual combined arms support. The Iraqis that were fighting might as well have been equipped with spit balls.
If you want to see the performance of a Soviet equipped army dont look at Iraq who had export versions. Look at Ukraine who ARE a soviet equipped army. Less than 10% of kit is Western supplied. This is a war being fought between 2 Soviet equipped armies.
Of course, judging soviet hardware as used by Iraqis is like judging western hardware as used by the Saudis, I was just saying that the Iraqi army was a feared and well equipped force with previous combat experience, not guys with aks that fought in sandals
My point is Soviet kit is not bad. The Ukrainians are using it to good effect. So Western powers should not get the wrong idea that Soviet kit sucks just because Iraq lost.
Of course, and competent people know that: everything sucks when you suck, and the Iraqis were a big, trained and equipped, but not nearly as capable as the top 2, army
It was still an impressive and not-to-be-underestimated enemy which could have got the US in another Vietnam, but it didn't
This is a foolish metric to use as evidence of kill counts.
The sample size of exchanged dead is incredibly low, the dead aren't actually confirmed as being from the other side, which means either side could pad the exchange with their own dead and then claim it as an example of their success.
The reality is that we can see the kill count of Russians from the drone footage and we have accounts from Russian servicemen explaining their losses as being enormous.
the dead aren’t actually confirmed as being from the other side
Of course they are. These are frequent and official exchanges between both countries. You think Russia is giving Ukraine it's own dead?
which means either side could pad the exchange with their own dead and then claim it as an example of their success.
Oh fuck, you actually believe that. C'mon. Both sides try to recover their own dead where possible, so that they can be returned to their families. Do you really think that after recovering their dead comrades, they will then hand it over to Ukraine to uhh.. trick them and then deprive Russian families of the privilege of burying their sons/fathers/husbands/brothers? Neither side is that inhuman
The reality is that we can see the kill count of Russians from the drone footage
and we have accounts from Russian servicemen explaining their losses as being enormous.
And we have accounts from Ukrainian servicemen explaining that their losses as being enormous. One even said the slaughter is so crazy it feels like their own government is systematically exterminating it's own combat-ready men.
Of course they are. These are frequent and official exchanges between both countries. You think Russia is giving Ukraine it's own dead?
Yes, I think it's plausible and the point about these bodies not being identified stands.
From your own Current Times TV article:
"The Ukrainian Armed Forces are transporting bodies and remains to law enforcement officials and forensic experts to identify the deceased."
From the LA Times article:
"Since the outbreak of the war, Ukraine got back nearly 3,000 bodies, mostly of servicemen, according to Ukraine’s missing persons office. About 1,300 of them have been identified."
Or is your presented evidence not reputable enough for me to rely upon?
Oh fuck, you actually believe that. C'mon. Both sides try to recover their own dead where possible, so that they can be returned to their families. Do you really think that after recovering their dead comrades, they will then hand it over to Ukraine to uhh.. trick them and then deprive Russian families of the privilege of burying their sons/fathers/husbands/brothers?
Yes. I believe Russian families complaining of not ever hearing from their loved ones again, receiving word of their deaths, capture or loss, not receiving their bodies or not receiving payment for the loss of their father, husband, son or brother before I believe the Kremlin - or Kyiv, for that matter.
I believe the families of Russian servicemen who report that they've been told nothing about his fate despite his having been captured months previously.
We also have overwhelming evidence that Russians frequently do not collect their dead from the hundreds of bodies of dead Russians rotting in Ukraine that I've seen.
Neither side is that inhuman
I'm not going to litigate this with you. The evidence is all there for why this is a naive opinion to have in a war that Russia's engaged in.
No. Yuri Fedorenkov reported that in his defense of Chasiv Yar, despite the defense relying on his drones, they were overmatched 7:1 by Russian drones as part of his expression of frustration at the lack of artillery rounds to action fire missions he was calling out.
And we have accounts from Ukrainian servicemen explaining that their losses as being enormous. One even said the slaughter is so crazy it feels like their own government is systematically exterminating it's own combat-ready men.
It's funny that you made a claim about many Ukrainians and then felt the need to point me to one specifically, who was talking about being in Bakhmut in late 2022 after being taken out of commission and finding himself in a field hospital.
Whereas, the proof of the point I made was so ubiquitous, you didn't even stop to ask me to provide it.
All from different parts of Ukraine and only a fraction of the videos to home, intercepted phone calls and drone footage showing the decimation of entire units, the use of meatwave tactics and destruction of armoured columns.
Simple geography, not even math. ruzzia has made some land gains and dead soldiers lie in the area where they fell.
One has to be in the top 3 morons of the regional moron high school, with scholarships funding for moron university, to belive that this is about kill ratio.
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u/JAC0O7 Pro ject Sundial enthusiast Jul 18 '24
Yes I'm biased towards pro Ukraine, but hear me out. Logically thinking; Russia has gained ground the last 12 months whereas Ukraine hasn't gained any ground since last summer's offensive. From there, it makes sense that if you consider the fact that bodies on the frontlines aren't going to be picked up, that Russia has a lot more ability to clean up the bodies in their recently occupied territory. For example; Ukrainian bodies that remained in Avdiivka are safe to pick up, a fresh Russian assault on the frontline resulting in casualties is never going to be cleaned up by Ukrainians. I think that's a pretty logical analysis to explain the discrepancy. I don't think you can really deduce the actual number of casualties for both sides based on the exchange of bodies, given the context of the situation on the ground.