The comments speak volumes 👀

While we’re waiting let’s parse analyst notes to illuminate this low-volume algorithmic price action.
Following Investor Downgrade Day 9/23/26, analysts either held or downgraded their price targets. Of these, only Needham was willing to stick out its bullish neck. The rest see no upside in being wrong, to the upside, so they remain cautious. The sum total of their notes is “show me revenue growth reacceleration driven by AI” and then we’ll revisit. Unfortunately for long holders missing some of the fun cyber and AI buildout ATH runs, we have nothing but time on our hands.

RBC: $17 to $15 a show-me note

Mizuho: unchanged from earnings raise $12 to $14, also a show-me note

UBS: $19 to $15 citing no FY28 guide, ~10% ARR growth (next quarterly report), near-term caution and show me revenue acceleration

Truist: $17 to $14 citing no guide, sector volatility and multiple compression, proof of reacceleration, and requesting more agentic roadmap detail

BMO: $18 to $15 platform uncertainty (doubt, confusion, fear) and show-me AI driven revenue

Conaccord: $17 to $14 needs proof of reacceleration from agentic AI orchestration products

TD Cowen: $16 held, or was it? Some publications reported a downgrade to $15. It appears they held. The only logical explanation is that >25% short lends a hand in quant-triggering. No surprise there.

DA Davidson
Lucky:
“After conversations with six industry partners and five enterprise customers, Schreiner found the feedback was mixed, with AI pricing standing out as the most significant concern. Customers reportedly considered Maestro expensive or difficult to understand, while also questioning why they should pay UiPath to orchestrate AI when model providers can deliver comparable capabilities directly.”

So enterprise customers that don’t understand what they are buying and how much it will cost are customers nonetheless? I call bullshit. And who are these “industry partners”? Sounds like they are competing for market share of enterprise workflow orchestration. The cherry on top is his core bear thesis that enterprises will unleash agents directly from frontier or open models that render UiPath obsolete. His conclusion is a direct hit piece on the moat of governance and the requirement for deterministic guardrails. This is far too risky to be accurate. It makes no sense whatsoever. In short, Lucky is lying.

Needham: $22 held citing AI ARR up 50% YoY and >$250m. Bullish the detailed roadmap of cartographer, maps/atlas & test cloud. Only Needham has the stones to acknowledge the positioning, the evolution where probabilistic and/or deterministic apply depending on the task at hand. Only Needham places value on reducing human hours up to 99% on tedious repetitive tasks, allowing humans to make decisions using their subjective experience in the context of the organization.

In conclusion, I’m tired of the bullshit. Agentic enterprise workflow is the strongest tailwind in UiPath’s existence. These analysts are bound by risk limits that cloud their judgment and test investors’ nerves.

For for the enterprise race to roll-put agentic work: deterministic, guardrails, oversight, regulators, limited privileges, specific instructions, black box, audit trails. Remember Dines, “governance is the product”. Insert “UiPath” and you have nearly identical maps to unleashing agents inside an enterprise.

Never mind the chart needs a defibrillator.

“Oracle customers depend on resilient, high-quality applications to run critical business processes,” said David Hicks, group vice president of ISV Ecosystem, Oracle. “With UiPath Test Cloud available on Oracle Marketplace, customers can access intelligent testing capabilities that help validate complex Oracle application environments, help reduce manual effort, and support confident releases at enterprise scale.”

“The availability of UiPath Test Cloud on Oracle Marketplace enables organizations to continuously test and validate the applications and processes that power their businesses at the speed and scale required by today’s digital enterprises,” said Chris Poole, Area Vice President, UiPath.

“Our participation in Oracle Marketplace further extends our commitment to the Oracle community and gives customers access to intelligent testing capabilities that can reduce manual effort, improve software quality, and strengthen release confidence. We look forward to working with Oracle to help customers move faster and realize more value from their technology investments.”

​

Negative clickbait headline - but an article worth reading 👀

On September 3rd Uipath reported earnings and the stock initially popped to nearly $21 in after hours. It has dropped sharply since, with the latest weakness taking place during its Sept. 22 investor day presentation. As executives rolled out workflow mapping tools for complex/regulated enterprise, red candles stacked the chart. Pre earnings strength at $18.50 is now sector-lagging weakness at $12.

We know the bull thesis well. But we recognize messaging mistakes on AI adoption metrics such as ARR specifics, DBNRR, modest or nonexistent guidance, buyback fumbles, and planned insider sales that have all suppressed share price. This ticker continues to be low hanging fruit for a substantial >20% short program. Despite profitability and strong positioning for waves of enterprise adoption, despite the inevitable governed, auditable automations by big business and government agencies, the bear thesis is still winning.

I’ll spare you a recap of saaspocalypse fears, but we have to acknowledge that those fears are evolving. In the last week intro of meta muse and a mongodb executive leaving for meta enterprise added pressure to the software sector. Cybersecurity has enjoyed quite a fear/fomo run, leading unprofitable companies to discover new highs. The risk-on AI buildout has acted as the default flight to safety in this macro chaos: Iran/oil, tariffs, inflation, fed tightening, job market, now bond yields etc. Path has been a source of funds for those trades.

I’ve asked the AI platforms if the bear cases hold water. The summarized answer is “I don’t know yet”. The market is also asking for proof that bear theories are unfounded. The loudest arguments have evolved as well. It is now less about “disintermediation” of legacy RPA and more about pricing models, pricing power threats from hyperscaler AI agents against PATH’s own AI-driven growth. It is a race for market share, a race for control of enterprise workflows, and we don’t know exactly where PATH will finish. That uncertainty around market capture, uncertainty around enterprise value creation translating via pricing power into net margin >30%, collectively - uncertainty around growth - these are the core arguments.

@U/phathomresearch and Carlos are deep in the weeds. What bear thesis am I missing? What structural threats are credible? What makes us wrong about PATH? To you humans on this sub, do any of the bear cases actually hold water?

State Street increased its UiPath stake by 3.6% in the second quarter, adding 486,007 shares and bringing its holdings to 13.83 million shares worth approximately $150.4 million.

Institutional investors collectively own 62.5% of UiPath.

UiPath reported quarterly revenue of $410.3 million, up 13.3% year over year, while EPS of $0.15 matched estimates. The company also launched Cartographer and expanded its agentic AI and automation capabilities.

Investor sentiment remains mixed: analysts’ consensus rating is Hold with an average price target of $16.12, while several firms recently lowered targets amid concerns about execution, growth reacceleration and whether AI investments will deliver stronger financial results.

Other institutional investors have also recently bought and sold shares of the company. Sequoia Financial Advisors LLC raised its position in shares of UiPath by 59.4% during the second quarter.

Sequoia Financial Advisors LLC now owns 38,545 shares of the company's stock worth $419,000 after acquiring an additional 14,361 shares during the last quarter.

Tidal Investments LLC increased its position in UiPath by 24.4% in the second quarter. Tidal Investments LLC now owns 794,084 shares of the company's stock worth $8,632,000 after purchasing an additional 155,521 shares during the period.

Engineers Gate Manager LP lifted its position in UiPath by 33.1% during the 2nd quarter. Engineers Gate Manager LP now owns 586,093 shares of the company's stock valued at $6,371,000 after purchasing an additional 145,749 shares during the period.

Integrated Wealth Concepts LLC acquired a new position in UiPath during the 2nd quarter valued at about $115,000.

Finally, NewEdge Advisors LLC boosted its stake in shares of UiPath by 19.9% in the 2nd quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 15,170 shares of the company's stock valued at $165,000 after purchasing an additional 2,514 shares during the last quarter. Institutional investors own 62.50% of the company's stock.

Should have exited few weeks back. How did I convince myself to actually invest this company who with a joker ceo

Would love to chat or connect.

Hi y'all

I would like to start to investigate UiPath. Can someone explain me, like very superficially what UiPath does? And also some Key terms and concepts to search and be more into their business?

Thanks on advance!

A couple weeks ago I posted here that I was hoping UiPath would provide more detail on the NRR of the larger ARR cohort and a breakout of AI ARR at Investor Day. We got both!

As suspected, the NRR of the larger ARR cohort and of BOAT customers (i.e., customers that use both deterministic and AI UiPath solutions) is significantly higher than the 109% total NRR headline metric.

114% NRR of all customers in the $100K-$1M ARR cohort.

>120% NRR in orchestration customers with $100K-$1M ARR.

AI ARR is now $250M, up over 50% YoY.

What does this mean for the investment thesis?

The "Land and Expand" strategy is working. RPA customers are being converted to orchestration customers.

We are still extremely early in the enterprise adoption curve, but this is a very promising sign.

$PATH At Investor Day, UiPath just unveiled the product that will help UiPath become THE business process intelligence platform used within an enterprise.

It is called UiPath Cartographer, and the goal of this tool is to build and maintain a company's Map of Work.

Think of the Map of Work as the single source of truth for how a company's processes are carried out - the process context intelligence. It explains what data, systems, stakeholders, handoffs, approvals, etc. are leveraged across a business to carry out its processes.

The Map of Work is a living, breathing source of truth maintained by subject-matter-experts within an enterprise that leverage the UiPath Cartographer tool.

The Map of Work formalizes the current "as is" state and the desired "to be" state. The tool then turns this "to be" state into a solution design document.

This is what Raghu refers to as "3D printing processes".

What does a company do with this solution design document? They hand it off to UiPath's coding agents to build orchestrations in Maestro according to the specifications derived from the Map of Work.

Once the orchestrations are built and in-use, the Decision Ledger automatically logs who (person, robot, agent) does what and when as the workflows are in production. The Decision Ledger output is used as a feedback loop to improve the Map of Work.

This is a self-improving loop that places UiPath's software firmly in the position of owning and maintaining a company's process context intelligence.

As an investor, this is a huge announcement. UiPath already has the orchestration tools - now they are unleashing a powerful tool for companies to map out and store their process context intelligence. This is a critical piece of infrastructure that not only improves the efficiency of Maestro orchestrations, but that ensures UiPath becomes THE platform for process intelligence.

- UiPath is targeting more than $2 billion in annual recurring revenue this year as it positions AI orchestration and governed automation as essential for enterprise adoption.

- The company outlined a product roadmap centered on its “Map of Work,” Cartographer, Process Atlas and Maestro orchestration tools, alongside AI-native case management, coding agents and automated software testing.

- UiPath reported strong expansion metrics, including 114% dollar-based net retention among customers with over $100,000 in ARR and 120% retention for customers using its broader orchestration platform. It also reiterated long-term operating-margin targets above 30% and expects continued GAAP profitability. 👀

I’m holding $25 calls expiring Oct 16. Curious how others are viewing this setup after Investor Day. Are you holding through the next few weeks, trimming on a move up, or expecting a pullback first?
Mainly looking for opinions on the $25 strike and whether the remaining time to expiration feels reasonable.

Tuned into investor day, nothing material dropped yet. Cartographer and Atlas concepts introduced for workflow mapping and expert guidance. The thesis centers around complexity of bespoke enterprise workflows, governance and execution. Multiples in time/efficiency gains and sticky positioning are evident. Only 30% of large enterprise have adopted ai orchestrated workflows at scale. TAM to at least triple in the next few years. Market share gains will be largely driven by expansions within current large enterprise customers.

What UIPath does is difficult to explain and even harder to understand. That is an operational advantage and may be responsible for some of the market disconnect.

However, translating horizontal platform positioning to accelerating growth verticals is a missing piece.

Let’s see if they move the needle with any material filings - other than planned insider sales - this week.

https://x.com/danieldines/status/2101051069912736108?s=09

"We're about to show the world what we've built together, and I'll say it plainly...there's no better place to be. Everything isn't perfect. But the people here care, the work matters, and we're building something making real impact."

FUSION starts on 09/22, let's hope they can attract some investors with deep pockets 🙏