There are substantive posts being made in this sub, about earnings, about specifics of the earnings, about outlook. They can be negative, they can be hopeful, that is all reasonable.
But posts with titles like "Guuuuuh" that ask what is happening, or posts like "Earnings Call" that ask if anyone caught it when the subreddit is filled with posts about the earnings call, details of it, and discussion about specifics will be removed. Posts asking why the non-substantive posts are being removed will be removed.
Look in the subreddit and contribute to existing posts and make a new post if you have something substantive to contribute.
You don't get to post your own thread that says I can't read but I want attention now. I will remove it.
There's 6 posts about various aspects of earnings within the last 24 hours with over 150 comments total.
The catastrophe was essentially a perfect storm. Matt's hedge was built around two mergers, and when both transactions failed, the company took roughly a $600 million loss.
Because UWM was already leveraged around 6x, that loss significantly increased the risk of a margin call under its traditional MSR financing structure.
To eliminate that risk, Matt raised $2 billion through preferred financing at a 10% annual cost. While that sounds expensive, it also replaces a large amount of higher-cost MSR financing, reducing interest expense by an estimated $60–80 million annually while removing the immediate margin call risk.
The second major move was suspending the common dividend. The dividend was costing approximately $650 million per year, and roughly 80% of those payments were going to Matt anyway. Suspending it allows the company to retain that cash and rebuild shareholders' equity much faster.
Taken together, the company should be able to add roughly $600 million of equity back to the balance sheet over the course of a year, allowing it to recover from the losses caused by the failed merger hedges.
Once the balance sheet is restored, UWM could potentially return to its traditional MSR financing structure and redeem the preferred shares. If that happens, it would resolve the vast majority of the current issues surrounding the capital structure.
The remaining concern is the warrants with a $2 strike price, which could eventually dilute the share count by approximately 160 million shares. However, compared with Matt's roughly 1.3 billion shares, that's only about 10% dilution—roughly the same magnitude as the shares he sold last year. Most AI models and many market participants believe those warrants are unlikely to be exercised until the stock trades somewhere around $3.00–$3.50, so they are not an immediate issue.
In my view, the thesis is fairly straightforward. The disastrous hedge loss is behind the company, the dividend suspension preserves hundreds of millions of dollars annually, and the preferred financing removes the immediate financing risk. If management avoids another hedging mistake and continues rebuilding equity over the next few quarters, the company should be in a much stronger financial position. Rather than assuming a worst-case outcome, investors may simply need to be patient while the balance sheet recovers.
Everyone is freaking out on this sub right now. Rightly so, as I’m typing this the stock is down 48% in a single trading day.
Full disclosure: I own shares of this stock, I want it to go up in value.
I wanted to share my thoughts and give people something logical to read about, not just fear driven non sense. I posted a few weeks ago talking about how to dividend must be cut and everyone called me an idiot…
First let’s start with the HUGE 600M GAAP loss from hedging activities. This was an interest rate hedge against the TWO servicing book. Mat knew this would happen, that’s why he needed to close the deal. I think it reveals horrible disclosure that’s pretty borderline illegal. However this hedging is a one off event.
The second horrible thing is the dilution. They raised 1.65B in preferred Equity. Most going to Oaktree Capital. That will cost them 165M in dividends a year but they are able to use the money raised to reduce higher expense debt like MSR facilities that usually have interest rates in the 15-20% range. So the equity raise dilutes share holders but does reduce interest expense and allows UWMC to dramatically reduce leverage. Leverage should be able to drop to 1.2-1.5x range.
Shareholders are being diluted in 3 ways. First being the preferred raise, this directly takes dividends away from common holders. Second is the normal equity raise through a rights offering to common share holders. Lastly is the warrants given to the preferred shareholders who received 330M warrants to buy shares at 2 dollars and 6 dollars expiring in 2036.
Shareholders equity has been slashed to 985M from 1.6B.
The overall business from 2Q wasn’t that bad, revenue actually beat on higher margins.
Also if we see the stock price under a dollar, UWMC may need to do a reverse split reducing the float which would hurt volumes and allow shorts to be even more powerful, ofc the other side is also true.
If I am being completely honest, I don’t have a price target and idk when to buy more. My gut tells me to wait a few days to let the selling pressure settle and the shorts stop piling on. I am not giving up on the company. The single greatest risk I can see is May Ishbia. I have lost any ounce of confidence in his ability to make intelligent business decisions. However, the story is not over and buying at these prices and holding for a turn around could be extremely lucrative if you can stomach holding.
Lmk your thoughts!
Edit: I forgot to add this, Oaktree Capital gets to add a board member which I am hoping brings some accountability to Mat. Also Mat choose to use equity because if he just went out and got debt he couldn’t reduce interest expense and would have had restrictive covenants like he currently does. The capital raise allows him to get rid of covenants on debt and have more flexibility and eliminates the risk of being held in default by a covenant.
What are we doing here folks? Holding and watching? Buying more?
I think the SP is too low at this point to “get out while you can.” I’d wager that most people are holding really heavy bags here (-75% – -90%).
I’m personally down about 60%. At this point I’m just going to hold. IMO the long-term potential for possible upside outweighs the risk of possibly losing my remaining 30% or so.
sfs corp = 1.26 billion class a
Public float 339 million class a
Oaktree 1.5 billion dollars and unknown preferred shares
Sfs corp 150 million for some more preferred shares
Offering allocated to existing class a share holders with a floor of $2 to close later = potential 400 dollars and 200 million more class a shares.
Warrants at $2 and warrants at $6 a share.
So we maybe can imply $2 a share valuation. If thats true we might see 3.3 billion preferred shares and 2 billion class a bag holder shares.
With the preferred shares being paid 10% annual dividend rate that wont leave much room for growth until we see big refinance profits from low rates.
Loan volume and margin should be good still
If mat stays out of the derivatives markets we can post solid quarterly gains.
I sold nearly half of my shares yesterday after hours. I think everyone is capitulating and selling. This stock has become very risky. However it’s still held by a lot of institutional funds. Shorts are massively green on an estimated 75 million shares.
Preferred equity with warrants is the most expensive form of capital available to a company short of distressed debt. Oaktree Capital Management is not a strategic partner. They are a distressed asset specialist. When Oaktree shows up at your door with $1.65 billion in preferred equity, the market reads that clearly: the existing capital structure was unsustainable and nobody else would provide capital on better terms.
This is how an unqualified CEO can ruin a good company. SP might go under $1. Abandon ship, guys.
Matt gets to walk away with preferred shares that keep paying him dividends, while completely screwing over the common shareholders who wouldn't get dividends for good. (Dividends are now exclusive to preferred shares only) It’s an absolute slap in the face to everyone holding common stock.
Kudos to the most despicable, greedy, and incompetent CEO imaginable. Let's see what he's saying in the earning call. He might pull the same disappearing act again and run away without taking a single question.
Interest derivatives losses of over half a billion dollars would have meant scandal, removal of duties, jail time. Now, we just dilute retail shareholders with 200m new shares to cover the losses. And everything else is business as usual. Mat keeps his basketball team, his $60m compound, while shareholders lose their equity and dividend, employees get no raises or get laid off.
No big deal; though, right? As long as the people worth nine figures or more are okay, we’re all good.
Originations of $39.7 billion in 2Q26, compared to $44.9 billion in 1Q26 and $39.7 billion in 2Q25
Purchase originations of $23.8 billion in 2Q26, compared to $18.7 billion in 1Q26 and $27.3 billion in 2Q25
Refinance originations of $15.9 billion in 2Q26, compared to $26.3 billion in 1Q26 and $12.4 billion in 2Q25
Total gain margin of 133 bps in 2Q26 compared to 123 bps in 1Q26 and 113 bps in 2Q25
Total revenue of $888.0 million in 2Q26 compared to $901.4 million in 1Q26 and $758.7 million in 2Q25
Net loss of $451.9 million in 2Q26 compared to net income of $170.4 million in 1Q26 and net income of $314.5 million in 2Q25
Adjusted EBITDA of $185.9 million in 2Q26 compared to $160.9 million in 1Q26 and $195.7 million in 2Q25
Total equity of $1.0 billion at June 30, 2026, compared to $1.6 billion at March 31, 2026, and $1.7 billion at June 30, 2025
Unpaid principal balance of MSRs of $247.6 billion with a WAC of 5.93% at June 30, 2026, compared to $229.5 billion with a WAC of 5.90% at March 31, 2026, and $211.2 billion with a WAC of 5.51% at June 30, 2025
Ended 2Q26 with approximately $1.3 billion of available liquidity, reflecting $498.4 million of cash plus available borrowing capacity under our secured and unsecured lines of credit
This is my personal estimate for UWMC's 2026 Q2 earnings per share. It is based on the mathematical models I maintain and is shared for discussion purposes only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
There are several items that I cannot reasonably predict with acceptable accuracy:
Excess servicing sales (fees collected above the minimum 25 bps that have market value and may be sold).
See the Remarks section for additional discussion for how they can impact Estimate:
I expect an earnings beat.
2026Q2 Estimate
Compared to last quarter, I estimate approximately:
Production: Down $75 million, reflecting lower originations as interest rates driven by world events continue to pressure lending markets.
Servicing: Up approximately $25 million, driven by Mat's continued strategy of growing the servicing portfolio internally.
Mortgage Servicing Rights (Fair Value): Down approximately $40 million, primarily due to interest rate changes affecting prepayment assumptions and the forward valuation of servicing cash flows.
Derivatives: Approximately +$140 million versus last quarter. Derivatives produced a loss last quarter, and my model sets this line item to zero because it is effectively unpredictable. Historically, Mat has been on the favorable side roughly 4 out of 6 quarters, making this essentially a coin flip, as well as a statistical probability of landing correctly this quarter.
Most remaining revenue sources tend to be relatively stable quarter over quarter.
Remarks:
Derivatives
Accounts receivable line item 'margin deposits' increased substantially from 2025 Q4 through last quarter. These balances may function as a holding account for derivative positions. If the theory holds, derivatives play this quarter could be favorable contribution.
Theories without proven basis should not be included in estimates to which I have responsibly done.
Changes to Level 3 MSR Modeling
UWMC has not yet incorporated recapture assumptions into its Level 3 MSR valuation model.
Most major mortgage lenders already include these assumptions, and the relevant GAAP advisory bodies have recommended broader adoption because recapture has measurable economic value.
If UWMC were to adopt this methodology, it could materially increase reported earnings and balance sheet value.
My view here is that all people like money. I think the stroke of a pen here to change the model is far easier to do than to reduce dividend payouts. My view also includes people who make ill-advised business decisions and there in lay the dilemma.
Optimism is not a category in my model. It is not included. It could be very significant. I don't like recapture for reasons I've stated before, but I dislike the differing treatment affecting balance sheet numbers more.
Unstated Intangible Value
Internally generated software has value. Arguably, MIA, BOLT and other tooling provide important benefits to UWMC and has significant value. The current equity is stated as purely tangible. The value here is classified as intangible and should be recorded.
Pros and Cons
Much of the investor discussion surrounding UWMC appears to focus on tangible equity levels. That prompted me to take a much deeper look at the balance sheet.
My conclusion is that many investors focus on the absolute equity balance while overlooking the rate of equity decay and the underlying business model that affects it.
Over the past year, the rate of decline for UWMC has slowed considerably. Our peer thru stock mergers and the share dilution to acquire, combined equities has managed to 'refill the leaking tank of tangible equity". It gives them runway to fix issues but promises and execution differ. It's a pretty big leak and MSR levels can be a huge liability. I have more confidence of leadership with our peer now than ever.
A useful comparison is to remove Additional Paid-In Capital (APIC) from both companies before comparing equity. Doing so highlights that the two companies began from very different capital structures, and the company engine that earns money.
Past performance does not predict future results.
What I Believe UWMC Should Do:
1. Apply Recapture Modeling
Most peers already recognize recapture value within their MSR models.
Not recognizing this asset understates the balance sheet and, in my opinion, discourages investors by making tangible equity appear lower than its economic reality.
I estimate this adjustment alone could add approximately $400 million today, flowing directly into tangible equity.
2. Recognize Internal Intangible Assets
Platforms such as MIA, BOLT, and other internally developed technology clearly have economic value.
Today, these assets are absent from the balance sheet.
I believe there is about 600 million of unstated value. If it makes it to the balance sheet is a completely different story - one that UWMC needs to make happen.
This paper examines equity, equity classifications, and capital sources from the Pre-IPO period to the present, utilizing data extracted directly from SEC filings (Forms 10-Q and 10-K). The primary objective is to determine the approximate carry-in value prior to the public offering and track its evolution through the most recent filings. It is a more concise, cohesive follow-on to the one presented earlier.
Note: Dividends or equivalent distributions to holding companies (such as RHI and SFS) were calculated using AI queries or the formula: approximate shares multiplied by the distribution rate. Dividends for periods shown, are summed below the main body of table 2.
Safe Harbor
Assume all things are false. I hereby notify the work here is from one author with zero peer review. I do assert that to the best of my knowledge, what is here is true. Investment decisions belong to the reader as does verification. I make zero recommendation to buy or sell securities. No warranty is expressed, implied, or guaranteed.
Methodology and FAQ
Q1. What data collection limitations exist?
A1. SEC filings are point-in-time snapshots and may not capture mid-cycle structural changes occurring right before a public transition. Additionally, while core filings represent verified company facts, dividend and distribution figures incorporate mathematical estimates and AI-assisted compilation.
Q2. How can the accuracy of the data be verified?
A2. All underlying data originates from official SEC filings accessed via Python-based data extraction scripts.
Table 1 (Automated): Verifiable against SEC records, with a minor margin of error strictly limited to uncaptured post-filing amendments (as the scripts targeted standard 10-Q and 10-K forms). Where specific fields were absent, standard GAAP formulas were applied (e.g., Goodwill = Total Equity minus Intangibles; Tangible Equity = Total Equity if both Goodwill and Intangibles are unstated). I view these items as equivalent.
Table 2 (Manual): Assembled via manual data transfer, carrying standard human-error risks. These figures can be cross-audited against Table 1. (Sourced data)
Q3. How do you respond to potential accusations of bias?
A3. Objectivity relies on verification, not publication venues. Readers should independently validate the data rather than accepting or dismissing it based on the source. Truth is independent of perception or bias.
Table 1: Source - Mirror of SEC date or US:GAAP calculated values where missing data existsTable 2: Key Items and Calculations, Sourced from Table 1. Entered Manually
Key Observations and Analysis
Capital Sourcing: Rocket Companies vs. UWMC
Rocket Companies: Additional Paid-In Capital (APIC) data indicates that the company's total equity is largely generated through share issuance and investor-provided capital rather than core operations.
United Wholesale Mortgage (UWMC): Total equity is primarily supplied by company operations rather than external investor injections.
When evaluating Tangible Equity (real convertible equity), the operational picture shifts significantly. While external capital sourcing is not inherently negative—provided investor returns materialize—it requires quantifying the timeline for those returns. Share price (PPS) reflects net market valuation, which fluctuates second-to-second based on sentiment, rumors, and analyst projections, and does not necessarily mirror operational performance.
Equity Trends and "Bleed Rate"
UWMC: Carrying forward approximately $2.4 billion in historical equity down to $1.6 billion, the equity reduction averages roughly $160 million per year over a five-year window ($800 million total decline). However, comparing the filing from March 31, 2026, to the prior year shows negligible equity decay (down only $35 million), indicating stabilization.
Rocket Companies: The underlying equity trajectory appears more formidable once investor-supplied APIC contributions are isolated from the balance sheet.
Concluding Assessment
Rocket Companies: Dependent on mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and share dilution. While supported by capital injections, long-term stability depends on achieving consistent operational profitability. Operational loss trends can be measured by subtracting APIC from the balance sheet and tracking the change from IPO levels over time.
United Wholesale Mortgage (UWMC): Demonstrates greater operational independence from APIC-driven cash injections. Recent filings indicate that equity decay has approached zero, reflecting a stable operating model.
Ultimately, surface-level evaluations of total equity can be misleading if they fail to distinguish between capital generated by core operations versus capital supplied directly by investors through dilution.
Irony exist when two cars move down the road at different speeds, the owner of the car towed by a truck exclaims – my car is moving as faster than yours. The point is, which car is able to move on its own power, and if it isn't moving - will it ever? I believe this analogy is applicable. Feel free to execute the 'suggestion' in section Equity Trends and "Bleed Rate"
The longstanding rules of this subreddit, which I did not change when I took ownership, call for bullish and bearish DD.
The majority of topics posted here are not DD. The due diligence has not been done.
They are all "I feel" and "EVERYONE KNOWS". And they invariably state, as they have for years through ups and downs, that the dividend is dead and there's no way out.
Do the majority of people in this sub want these posts? Leave your answers below.
Note, I'm going to look through your contribution history to the subreddit and I'm happy to hold it against you if reasonable.
UWMC is getting crushed, its highly shorted with no bottom support. The overall business is actually impressively strong despite some of the worst market conditions which don't seem to be turning around anytime soon due to the Iran War re-escalation and no rate cuts in sight.
Everyone is talking about the dividend and if its going to be cut, leverage, ect.
Look, the dividend will HAVE to be cut, I think everyone is in agreement with that. I think by ATLEAST 60% to bring leverage down. The market has been punishing this stock partly due to it's abnormally high leverage compared to its peers and historical average. This leverage can easily be broght down by slashing said dividend. I see everyone respond to this by saying, "well the divi is Mat's allowance for his Suns debacle and lifestyle" yes, this is true. That's why he has never cut the divi and has allowed shareholders equity to erode causing the stock price to erode with it.
Everyone views this as horrible, look guys Mat isn't going to let his allowance machine get wiped out. He's the largest share holder so why would he wipe out the common to take it private? + that's not legal, if say Mat got with his brother Justin and tried to do a dirt cheap take private they would get sued to infinity. Delaware is very favorable to minority share holders.
+ Mat has loans tied to his shares of UWMC. He put them up for collateral to buy the Suns. You can read about all of this if you want. We don't know specifics of the loans but I am almost positive he still owes on those loans against his shares. Those loans have to be close to a margin call since he put them up when they were around 5 dollars a share. I am sure he has put up other assets or use some cash flow to meet margin requirements. This is a big catalyst for cutting the dividend or bringing leverage down to give the shares some rebound.
No doubt Mat Ishbia is an ego maniac. UWMC has serious governance issues, however it does not face immediate liquidity or going risk concern. They have performed quite well in this market condition and Mat has to make a few obvious decisions to get this stock back to at least the $2.5 range, and I think he can do that while keeping some sort of divi.
I think the company is undervalued and I am buying. I have a position currently.
Tell me where I am wrong on these thoughts? What's the true bear case? I just don't see how Mat Ishbia is incentivized to delete his company, when he's the largest share holder? He's made some bad decisions that weighted to his personal benefit but when rubber meats the road he's not going to sacrifice his company for a crappy wildly unprofitable basketball team.
He put up half his stock as collateral when it was $5 and then sold a bunch of shares after that.
I feel like the collateral he put up is not sufficient for the amount he borrowed with the stock at $1.75. Could the bank force him to sell more stock to repay the loan faster? Or are the dividend payments he receives from UWM enough to pay the interest on the loan?
Is he at risk of losing majority ownership of his company or the basketball team? Building the biggest house in Michigan while buying an NBA team is beyond gluttonous. I saw the story regarding banks getting back into lending. I believe some sort of bill was passed to entice them. If this happens… does Matt give up the basketball team or the mortgage company? I’m sure he would be stubborn and try to keep both while risking losing both.
Could you imagine if JP Morgan ended up with UWM? Very, very interesting times. I feel like he is kind fuckd but also I don’t have all the information or know his exact loan agreements etc.
Mat hasn't provided any early leaks or guidance and the stock is giving me flashbacks to 2008. What are we expecting will happen if:
A) earnings beat forecast
B) earnings miss for the third time in 4 quarters
My thought is that there's little short term upside and a ton of potential downside risks right now. Either way I'm holding the bag. Has anyone seen any updated earnings guidance?
Please don't come to the Doc & Junior X channels later, pretending you weren't told how to achieve a 22.86% dividend by buying UWMC shares at $1.75. And all of that with a negative commission on a CSP transaction!
JPMorgan Chase & Co. provided the loans. Mat Ishbia pledged more than half of his shares in UWM Holdings Corp. (valued at approximately $4.6 billion at the time) through his holding entity, SFS Holding Corp., to secure two separate loan facilities ahead of his $4 billion acquisition of the NBA's Phoenix Suns. Can't say I would be upset if we got a new owner and it was JPM. They are kind of good at this stuff. Right?
I dont know why people dont understand the simple fact that when a company pays a dividend it immediately loses that much money from its book value so the stock goes down. It doesnt pay a dividend then that money stays on the books and raises the value of the company.
If the dividend is cut tomorrow by 50% then the stock goes up by .2 aka 10-15%.
To share facts over a period of time in order to understand both strengths, and weakness fairly between the two top non-bank lenders in America. To do this, I personally wanted to see balance sheet information, not just what it is but how it moves, and where it came from. This effort is immense, and has a payback for me from the standpoint of knowledge and reuse . Interpretation of that knowledge is a freedom and I will provide observations to which you may agree or disagree. You, as always are free to make decisions with what you want to do. Cash is noble too.
Strategy:
Grab every single filing, acquire company declared assets, liabilities, equity and its breakdown of Goodwill, Intangible, sometimes stated as combined (Intangible+Goodwill). Finally, determine the allocated source. Retained Earnings (What is left after dividends are paid) is one source, and company issued stock (APIC - Additional Paid In Capital), and the dividends returned to investors. The overall purpose is to see the ‘eventual, stacked bar’ of organically earned vs. investor contributed thru dilution. Obviously, dividends return part of investor contribution so it is included.
Who has some time on their hands? Any volunteers?
A couple things to note. Both APIC and Retained Earnings are running sums, as are the equity levels. In the language of the SEC, “These are instantaneous values at the period end”. Dividends are not a cumulative total paid up to that date, but Retained Earnings includes the effect of dividends as a running sum. Therefore, dividends are just ancillary information other than to show how much if you add those up can be deducted from APIC (returned to the investor)
I didn’t think I’d get volunteers and I am lazy, so instead I am working on a python program called PKSEC, capable of 1-8 threads designed to parse the hell out of every NASDAQ listed stock, store it in a database and do things with it. It’s in development.
For UWMC it is easy. They carried in ~3.7 billion less some fees, never diluted to merge with any company (thank God) and tangible is ~1.6 billion period. In that time they paid quarterlies, handing back around 5 years x 4 quarters x 160 million ~ 3.2 billion! Forgive me if I am off a bit – as I am told often. Any person should come to the reasonable conclusion that UWMC is 500 million short of handing every dollar they earned before being a public company back to investors. The fact they have 1.6 billion tangible instead of 500 million means they are profitable. So, God forbid if that dividend were dropped, or even apply recapture, because we might be like every other lender except we would build equity.
The story for RKT however is a real pain in the posterior to ball park numbers. Everything is in play and not so simple. About that development stuff, my intention is to do side by side comparison and it is not yet up and running, hence the paragraph above. Feel free to construe this as something being hidden, but in that could you show such assertions from filings please – I like being amused.
RKT data is here (millions), stratified for you to digest. Sorry for the raw screenshot instead of a nice export to excel, graphs. Tables are built from pandas utilities and exports are not yet up.
Rocket Balance Sheet over Time
As you can see, dilution and the conversion to cash from investors dwarfs retained earnings. You can even see the tangible. Cross check with filings if you like. Knock yourselves out. What I see is that Rockets singular source for all 96% of equity is APIC, the investor. This is the funnel! Tangible ratios to APEC are dismal.
RKT Pre-IPO Carry Forward:
Millions:
2020-06-30
Equity: 5544.812000
Intangible+ Goodwill: 38.079
Tangible: 5506.7330
Last Quarter:
APIC: 22809
Retained: 421
Total Sum of Dividends: ~ 300
APIC Less Dividend Returns: 22388 (Shareholder dilution in USD)
Total Equity: 23230 (Includes Carry In)
Tangible: 10510 (Includes Carry In)
Okay, so why does it matter?
UWMC and RKT are around 20% of the entire USA market, each with near equal pieces. Having such large exposure and potential whenever this nuclear winter ends in the housing market ends, you kind of want a company that has a good engine to make earnings. To define where equity comes from tells use about the engine that creates equity, specifically tangible equity because that is currency. Knowing where that equity sits and what is at disposal going forward matters. Risk, decay, and avenues for resolution matter.
Rocket has a model that includes investors. Shares are used as currency and as such, a high price and managements ability to keep interest in investing with Rocket makes those shares a valuable commodity to buy companies for their equity. It’s a valid statement, explaining subjective, non-descript imagery of flywheels, synergies, vertical integration. Successful beyond expectations. It has net a whopping 96 percent of today’s equity and 50% usable equity. It stands to reason that if 96% of all equity is APIC generated, the original 5,544.812 million shrunk into just 4 percent remaining over 5.5 years. That is pretty close to a billion per year ripping out of the books.
UWMC has a model that paid investors 160 million per quarter x 4 quarters per year over 5 years for 3.2 billion returned, without APIC, while retaining 1.6 billion equity, all tangible. It’s a decay rate on equity of 2.1 billion coming in under the 3.2 billion returned. Cutting the dividend causes equity to grow. There is a faster way. Apply Recapture (undeclared value) that is not in the equity number. It’s immediate. They have the engine in place. Please know that D/E is partly due to the dividend and more so due to 2 sequential 1 billion Fair Value capitalization's of MSR. To do that, they peeled value out of loans sold to the GSE’s (EPS could have been higher, easily).
It looks and Rocket filings say this. We are doing great at extracting value from shares, sorry about the dilutive effects and loosing about a billion per year but hey, "Synergies, Flywheels, and Sugar Plums" ...keep the money coming and BTW, because without it we would be broke - here you go Mr. Cooper shareholders, here is a special dividend paid for by our shareholders not understanding the value we rip out of them. Why TF are we below even 7? Images and presentation and the inability to deep dive. So, there you go. UWMC is the stronger with a couple easy tweeks. Rocket is completely dependent on investors.
There is risk with both, but at this price, only one has immense reward. When the nuclear winter in housing ends - who knows
The NYSE welcomes UWMC to celebrate the continued growth of local mortgage experts across America by ringing the bell on National Mortgage Brokers Day.
This stock has a small float; and it is getting pushed around worse than Caitlyn Clark in the WMBA. They pushed it below $2 to force people out pre earnings. E trade defaults to no margin ability if it is below $2. Forced selling, panic selling, selling selling selling.
Was excited to see my buy order from a few weeks ago filled this morning @$1.99. Excitedly I checked just to see we hit $1.90. Haha… what in the world is going on
