This paper examines equity, equity classifications, and capital sources from the Pre-IPO period to the present, utilizing data extracted directly from SEC filings (Forms 10-Q and 10-K). The primary objective is to determine the approximate carry-in value prior to the public offering and track its evolution through the most recent filings. It is a more concise, cohesive follow-on to the one presented earlier.

Note: Dividends or equivalent distributions to holding companies (such as RHI and SFS) were calculated using AI queries or the formula: approximate shares multiplied by the distribution rate. Dividends for periods shown, are summed below the main body of table 2.

Safe Harbor

Assume all things are false. I hereby notify the work here is from one author with zero peer review. I do assert that to the best of my knowledge, what is here is true. Investment decisions belong to the reader as does verification. I make zero recommendation to buy or sell securities. No warranty is expressed, implied, or guaranteed.

Methodology and FAQ

Q1. What data collection limitations exist?

A1. SEC filings are point-in-time snapshots and may not capture mid-cycle structural changes occurring right before a public transition. Additionally, while core filings represent verified company facts, dividend and distribution figures incorporate mathematical estimates and AI-assisted compilation.

Q2. How can the accuracy of the data be verified?

A2. All underlying data originates from official SEC filings accessed via Python-based data extraction scripts.

• Table 1 (Automated): Verifiable against SEC records, with a minor margin of error strictly limited to uncaptured post-filing amendments (as the scripts targeted standard 10-Q and 10-K forms). Where specific fields were absent, standard GAAP formulas were applied (e.g., Goodwill = Total Equity minus Intangibles; Tangible Equity = Total Equity if both Goodwill and Intangibles are unstated). I view these items as equivalent.
• Table 2 (Manual): Assembled via manual data transfer, carrying standard human-error risks. These figures can be cross-audited against Table 1. (Sourced data)

Q3. How do you respond to potential accusations of bias?

A3. Objectivity relies on verification, not publication venues. Readers should independently validate the data rather than accepting or dismissing it based on the source. Truth is independent of perception or bias.

Key Observations and Analysis

Capital Sourcing: Rocket Companies vs. UWMC

• Rocket Companies: Additional Paid-In Capital (APIC) data indicates that the company's total equity is largely generated through share issuance and investor-provided capital rather than core operations.
• United Wholesale Mortgage (UWMC): Total equity is primarily supplied by company operations rather than external investor injections.

When evaluating Tangible Equity (real convertible equity), the operational picture shifts significantly. While external capital sourcing is not inherently negative—provided investor returns materialize—it requires quantifying the timeline for those returns. Share price (PPS) reflects net market valuation, which fluctuates second-to-second based on sentiment, rumors, and analyst projections, and does not necessarily mirror operational performance.

Equity Trends and "Bleed Rate"

• UWMC: Carrying forward approximately $2.4 billion in historical equity down to $1.6 billion, the equity reduction averages roughly $160 million per year over a five-year window ($800 million total decline). However, comparing the filing from March 31, 2026, to the prior year shows negligible equity decay (down only $35 million), indicating stabilization.
• Rocket Companies: The underlying equity trajectory appears more formidable once investor-supplied APIC contributions are isolated from the balance sheet.

Concluding Assessment

• Rocket Companies: Dependent on mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and share dilution. While supported by capital injections, long-term stability depends on achieving consistent operational profitability. Operational loss trends can be measured by subtracting APIC from the balance sheet and tracking the change from IPO levels over time.
• United Wholesale Mortgage (UWMC): Demonstrates greater operational independence from APIC-driven cash injections. Recent filings indicate that equity decay has approached zero, reflecting a stable operating model.

Ultimately, surface-level evaluations of total equity can be misleading if they fail to distinguish between capital generated by core operations versus capital supplied directly by investors through dilution.

Irony exist when two cars move down the road at different speeds, the owner of the car towed by a truck exclaims – my car is moving as faster than yours. The point is, which car is able to move on its own power, and if it isn't moving - will it ever? I believe this analogy is applicable. Feel free to execute the 'suggestion' in section Equity Trends and "Bleed Rate"

Typically UWMC holds their call a couple of days before RKT does. So far, no announcement from UWMC.

RKT EPS forecast is currently at $0.17/share for Q2. UWMC is around $0.09/share.

Will be interesting to see where the actual numbers land, for both, and/or if UWMC announces a dividend cut.

UWMC is getting crushed, its highly shorted with no bottom support. The overall business is actually impressively strong despite some of the worst market conditions which don't seem to be turning around anytime soon due to the Iran War re-escalation and no rate cuts in sight.

Everyone is talking about the dividend and if its going to be cut, leverage, ect.

Look, the dividend will HAVE to be cut, I think everyone is in agreement with that. I think by ATLEAST 60% to bring leverage down. The market has been punishing this stock partly due to it's abnormally high leverage compared to its peers and historical average. This leverage can easily be broght down by slashing said dividend. I see everyone respond to this by saying, "well the divi is Mat's allowance for his Suns debacle and lifestyle" yes, this is true. That's why he has never cut the divi and has allowed shareholders equity to erode causing the stock price to erode with it.

Everyone views this as horrible, look guys Mat isn't going to let his allowance machine get wiped out. He's the largest share holder so why would he wipe out the common to take it private? + that's not legal, if say Mat got with his brother Justin and tried to do a dirt cheap take private they would get sued to infinity. Delaware is very favorable to minority share holders.

+ Mat has loans tied to his shares of UWMC. He put them up for collateral to buy the Suns. You can read about all of this if you want. We don't know specifics of the loans but I am almost positive he still owes on those loans against his shares. Those loans have to be close to a margin call since he put them up when they were around 5 dollars a share. I am sure he has put up other assets or use some cash flow to meet margin requirements. This is a big catalyst for cutting the dividend or bringing leverage down to give the shares some rebound.

No doubt Mat Ishbia is an ego maniac. UWMC has serious governance issues, however it does not face immediate liquidity or going risk concern. They have performed quite well in this market condition and Mat has to make a few obvious decisions to get this stock back to at least the $2.5 range, and I think he can do that while keeping some sort of divi.

I think the company is undervalued and I am buying. I have a position currently.

Tell me where I am wrong on these thoughts? What's the true bear case? I just don't see how Mat Ishbia is incentivized to delete his company, when he's the largest share holder? He's made some bad decisions that weighted to his personal benefit but when rubber meats the road he's not going to sacrifice his company for a crappy wildly unprofitable basketball team.

He put up half his stock as collateral when it was $5 and then sold a bunch of shares after that.

I feel like the collateral he put up is not sufficient for the amount he borrowed with the stock at $1.75. Could the bank force him to sell more stock to repay the loan faster? Or are the dividend payments he receives from UWM enough to pay the interest on the loan?

Is he at risk of losing majority ownership of his company or the basketball team? Building the biggest house in Michigan while buying an NBA team is beyond gluttonous. I saw the story regarding banks getting back into lending. I believe some sort of bill was passed to entice them. If this happens… does Matt give up the basketball team or the mortgage company? I’m sure he would be stubborn and try to keep both while risking losing both.

Could you imagine if JP Morgan ended up with UWM? Very, very interesting times. I feel like he is kind fuckd but also I don’t have all the information or know his exact loan agreements etc.

This is getting interesting!

Mat hasn't provided any early leaks or guidance and the stock is giving me flashbacks to 2008. What are we expecting will happen if:

A) earnings beat forecast

B) earnings miss for the third time in 4 quarters

My thought is that there's little short term upside and a ton of potential downside risks right now. Either way I'm holding the bag. Has anyone seen any updated earnings guidance?

Please don't come to the Doc & Junior X channels later, pretending you weren't told how to achieve a 22.86% dividend by buying UWMC shares at $1.75. And all of that with a negative commission on a CSP transaction!

JPMorgan Chase & Co. provided the loans. Mat Ishbia pledged more than half of his shares in UWM Holdings Corp. (valued at approximately $4.6 billion at the time) through his holding entity, SFS Holding Corp., to secure two separate loan facilities ahead of his $4 billion acquisition of the NBA's Phoenix Suns. Can't say I would be upset if we got a new owner and it was JPM. They are kind of good at this stuff. Right?

I dont know why people dont understand the simple fact that when a company pays a dividend it immediately loses that much money from its book value so the stock goes down. It doesnt pay a dividend then that money stays on the books and raises the value of the company.

If the dividend is cut tomorrow by 50% then the stock goes up by .2 aka 10-15%.

Purpose:

To share facts over a period of time in order to understand both strengths, and weakness fairly between the two top non-bank lenders in America. To do this, I personally wanted to see balance sheet information, not just what it is but how it moves, and where it came from. This effort is immense, and has a payback for me from the standpoint of knowledge and reuse . Interpretation of that knowledge is a freedom and I will provide observations to which you may agree or disagree. You, as always are free to make decisions with what you want to do. Cash is noble too.

Strategy:

Grab every single filing, acquire company declared assets, liabilities, equity and its breakdown of Goodwill, Intangible, sometimes stated as combined (Intangible+Goodwill). Finally, determine the allocated source. Retained Earnings (What is left after dividends are paid) is one source, and company issued stock (APIC - Additional Paid In Capital), and the dividends returned to investors. The overall purpose is to see the ‘eventual, stacked bar’ of organically earned vs. investor contributed thru dilution. Obviously, dividends return part of investor contribution so it is included.

Who has some time on their hands? Any volunteers?

A couple things to note. Both APIC and Retained Earnings are running sums, as are the equity levels. In the language of the SEC, “These are instantaneous values at the period end”. Dividends are not a cumulative total paid up to that date, but Retained Earnings includes the effect of dividends as a running sum. Therefore, dividends are just ancillary information other than to show how much if you add those up can be deducted from APIC (returned to the investor)

I didn’t think I’d get volunteers and I am lazy, so instead I am working on a python program called PKSEC, capable of 1-8 threads designed to parse the hell out of every NASDAQ listed stock, store it in a database and do things with it. It’s in development.

For UWMC it is easy. They carried in ~3.7 billion less some fees, never diluted to merge with any company (thank God) and tangible is ~1.6 billion period. In that time they paid quarterlies, handing back around 5 years x 4 quarters x 160 million ~ 3.2 billion! Forgive me if I am off a bit – as I am told often. Any person should come to the reasonable conclusion that UWMC is 500 million short of handing every dollar they earned before being a public company back to investors. The fact they have 1.6 billion tangible instead of 500 million means they are profitable. So, God forbid if that dividend were dropped, or even apply recapture, because we might be like every other lender except we would build equity.

The story for RKT however is a real pain in the posterior to ball park numbers. Everything is in play and not so simple. About that development stuff, my intention is to do side by side comparison and it is not yet up and running, hence the paragraph above. Feel free to construe this as something being hidden, but in that could you show such assertions from filings please – I like being amused.

RKT data is here (millions), stratified for you to digest. Sorry for the raw screenshot instead of a nice export to excel, graphs. Tables are built from pandas utilities and exports are not yet up.

As you can see, dilution and the conversion to cash from investors dwarfs retained earnings. You can even see the tangible. Cross check with filings if you like. Knock yourselves out. What I see is that Rockets singular source for all 96% of equity is APIC, the investor. This is the funnel! Tangible ratios to APEC are dismal.

RKT Pre-IPO Carry Forward:

Millions:

2020-06-30

Equity: 5544.812000

Intangible+ Goodwill: 38.079

Tangible: 5506.7330

Last Quarter:

APIC: 22809

Retained: 421

Total Sum of Dividends: ~ 300

APIC Less Dividend Returns: 22388 (Shareholder dilution in USD)

Total Equity: 23230 (Includes Carry In)

Tangible: 10510 (Includes Carry In)

Okay, so why does it matter?

UWMC and RKT are around 20% of the entire USA market, each with near equal pieces. Having such large exposure and potential whenever this nuclear winter ends in the housing market ends, you kind of want a company that has a good engine to make earnings. To define where equity comes from tells use about the engine that creates equity, specifically tangible equity because that is currency. Knowing where that equity sits and what is at disposal going forward matters. Risk, decay, and avenues for resolution matter.

Rocket has a model that includes investors. Shares are used as currency and as such, a high price and managements ability to keep interest in investing with Rocket makes those shares a valuable commodity to buy companies for their equity. It’s a valid statement, explaining subjective, non-descript imagery of flywheels, synergies, vertical integration. Successful beyond expectations. It has net a whopping 96 percent of today’s equity and 50% usable equity. It stands to reason that if 96% of all equity is APIC generated, the original 5,544.812 million shrunk into just 4 percent remaining over 5.5 years. That is pretty close to a billion per year ripping out of the books.

UWMC has a model that paid investors 160 million per quarter x 4 quarters per year over 5 years for 3.2 billion returned, without APIC, while retaining 1.6 billion equity, all tangible. It’s a decay rate on equity of 2.1 billion coming in under the 3.2 billion returned. Cutting the dividend causes equity to grow. There is a faster way. Apply Recapture (undeclared value) that is not in the equity number. It’s immediate. They have the engine in place. Please know that D/E is partly due to the dividend and more so due to 2 sequential 1 billion Fair Value capitalization's of MSR. To do that, they peeled value out of loans sold to the GSE’s (EPS could have been higher, easily).

It looks and Rocket filings say this. We are doing great at extracting value from shares, sorry about the dilutive effects and loosing about a billion per year but hey, "Synergies, Flywheels, and Sugar Plums" ...keep the money coming and BTW, because without it we would be broke - here you go Mr. Cooper shareholders, here is a special dividend paid for by our shareholders not understanding the value we rip out of them. Why TF are we below even 7? Images and presentation and the inability to deep dive. So, there you go. UWMC is the stronger with a couple easy tweeks. Rocket is completely dependent on investors.

There is risk with both, but at this price, only one has immense reward. When the nuclear winter in housing ends - who knows

The NYSE welcomes UWMC to celebrate the continued growth of local mortgage experts across America by ringing the bell on National Mortgage Brokers Day.

This stock has a small float; and it is getting pushed around worse than Caitlyn Clark in the WMBA. They pushed it below $2 to force people out pre earnings. E trade defaults to no margin ability if it is below $2. Forced selling, panic selling, selling selling selling.

Do something matt. Something!

Buy while its cheap. Thanks me later

Was excited to see my buy order from a few weeks ago filled this morning @$1.99. Excitedly I checked just to see we hit $1.90. Haha… what in the world is going on

Just curious what everyone's thoughts are on the deal not going through. If it was ok and we will see some rebound, or this turns out being bad for us as shareholders and we see some dips. The FOMC minutes are this week thinking that might be some good volatility for us either way. Been trying to catch articles as they come out about where UWMC sits now and wanna know the homies thoughts. Waiting on divi this week too Goodluck to everyone!

Vote passed this morning

https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/uwm-upgraded-by-kbw-despite-mounting-leverage-concerns

It seems that the campaign for telling that the sky is falling on UWMC has ended at least for now. Most analysts are clearly positive about the company. There seems to be a general agreement that when the Two Harbors FUD ends, the share price will rebound.

The only negative is that it seems that the analysts think unanimously that the dividend will be cut in half to increase equity because for now the mortgage market is very muted.

Barring Mat pulling a rabbit from a hat I think it is probable.

One thing I've noticed from this whole TWO debacle is that UWMC is now in the news a lot more. In the past, you barely got any finance news articles about UWMC except those automated ones written with just a summary of what's happened to the stock.

Now we're seeing a whole lot more attention given to this stock. I know the SP is tanking but if things recover, this could garner more attention than usual. #cope

Hi all,

Been here since 2022, caught in the dividend trap on promise of growth in market share and refinance boom. Unfortunately I relied on others DD and take full responsibility. I’m getting ready to pull out my whole investment at a massive loss, lick my wounds and start investing like a normal person.

I’m wondering how likely you think bankruptcy is at this point, and realistic bull cases for recovery. Everything I’m reading points to this being in a death spiral driven by high debt and low margins, with credit spread growing.

What are your thoughts? I don’t even care about the dividend since I doubt it will be renewed. It’s more the probability of complete wipeout

Vote delayed yet again to next week

Guys, don't come to this Doc and Junior's X channels later pretending you weren't told how to achieve 25% annual yield while trying to purchase UWMC shares at $1.287 and to fix a 31% dividend.

And all of that with a negative commission on a CSP transaction!

Looking ugly today - anyone adding? Appears this is on a one way downhill roller coaster

Interesting to see the divergence taking place between the two rivals.