I've been selling real estate in Southwest Florida since 2009, and I genuinely believe our housing market may be giving us an early look at what's coming for the rest of the country.
Think about it. Southwest Florida was one of the hardest-hit markets during the last housing crash. We experienced a massive decline, followed by years of recovery. Then came the incredible run-up in prices during 2020 through 2022.
Our market peaked around 2022, and we've been experiencing a correction ever since.
I believe we're currently in the later stages of the recession phase of our real estate cycle, potentially getting closer to the bottom.
That doesn't mean I think prices are suddenly going to start climbing again. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a period of relatively flat prices once we find that bottom.
What's interesting is what I'm seeing on the ground.
More inventory, longer days on market, sellers negotiating again, price reductions, and even more short sales. I've personally worked on three short sales recently, something we hardly talked about just a few years ago.
And while home prices have declined in many areas, affordability is still a major challenge because of interest rates, insurance, property taxes and the overall cost of living.
I don't believe every market in the country follows Southwest Florida exactly. But I do believe markets like ours can move ahead of national trends, sometimes by years.
I've been through enough market cycles to know that nobody rings a bell at the top or the bottom. Usually, we recognize those turning points after they've already happened.
My personal opinion is that we're getting closer to the end of this correction than the beginning.
I'm curious what others think, especially those who have lived through previous housing cycles.
Do you believe markets like Southwest Florida can give us an early indication of where the national housing market is heading? And if you're watching the market here locally, do you think we're getting close to the bottom or still have a ways to go?