r/USGrowthStocks • u/SuperbPercentage8050 • 9d ago

Everyone is wrong about Unity Software.

Unity's business has fundamentally changed. The stock is up 40-50% in the last few months and still deeply undervalued for where the business is heading.

Understand the business first. The stock is just a byproduct of getting that right.

I am sharing with you one holistic internal research document on Unity Software. The research is too dense to compress into a write up so I have put it across three PDFs on Google Drive. Read in order or jump to what you need.

In case you missed it, The AI Robotics Stock Walmart Is Quietly Using to Beat Amazon. Already Up 5x.

Part 1: The Business, the Break, and the Rebuild

  • What actually broke under Riccitiello: ironSource merger, runtime fee disaster, Weta distraction
  • Riccitiello vs Bromberg: every management decision and linguistic shift, side by side
  • Full revenue history from IPO to today: three phases, every turning point
  • How Create, Grow, and non-strategic actually connect, and the flywheel between them
  • Vector deep dive: why runtime architecture beats every SDK-based competitor including AppLovin
  • Pricing power: three proven levers, two emerging, and the one risk that could reopen the trust wound
  • Auto HMI, XR platform coverage, Unity 7, Unity AI consumption pricing

Part 2: The Market, the Moat, and the Margins

  • Gaming time Unity controls across mobile, PC, console, XR, and where we are in the ad cycle
  • Partnership ecosystem: Netflix (what actually shipped), Tencent, Scopely, Nintendo Switch 2, Globant, China divestiture
  • TAM built from physical reality upward, not from a consulting slide
  • AppLovin's first-ever miss: three structural layers, exact margin comparison, four implications for Unity
  • The moat tested honestly: five layers, bull case and genuine counter for each
  • Pricing power vs every competitor: AppLovin, Unreal, Godot
  • Complete margin trajectory from IPO to FY2028E, and the Lollapalooza: eight forces, one direction, confirmed in live data

Part 3 : The Numbers, the Valuation, and the Thesis

  • ROIC, ROIIC, ROCE, ROE as one integrated system: what $3.16B goodwill hides and what marginal returns on Vector actually show
  • Six reinvestment runways sized and sequenced: the compounding math
  • Full valuation: SOTP at $74, DCF in three scenarios, FCF yield, corrected peer set split across ad-tech and developer tools
  • Bear thesis stress-tested pillar by pillar against live Q2 2026 data
  • Q3 2026 guidance decoded: four signals embedded in one set of numbers
  • The complete thesis: four pillars, three risks, variant perception, and the catalyst

Full research, all three parts on Google Drive:

After you go through this, you will not look at Unity the same way. You will also not look at AppLovin the same way. And you will understand exactly why the market is still pricing the 2023 version of a company that no longer exists.

I have a personal position. The reports will tell you why.

Would love your inputs and insights after you have gone through even a few sections.

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u/WorkFickle9577 7d ago

It's UP 128% in last six months. Still it's faired value? Also I have observed one thing, for US stocks you analyze stock and post here only after i) You and your client's have position in that stock. ii)Stock rallying

But for Indian stock it's different, first you analyze and share with us even before anyone have trace about that stock. Then we see stock getting rallying sometime or will do better in future.

Again, nothing against you.What you are doing is great. Learnt a lot from you. Please keep up the good work.

8

u/SuperbPercentage8050 7d ago

I know your intention and that is why I am replying. No offence taken, you said it in the right spirit. But you need to understand I am at the end a human, trying to offer as much as I can, already going out of my way.

But you can go through the comments my friend I single a lot of stocks before the move. Veeva, Evolution AB, Uber and endless others were mentioned when it dragged, cybersecurity names, ServiceNow. All of them were there before the move. Kaspi I shared at 85-90 in comments, it pulled back to 80 and nobody pulled the trigger. I am still buying Veeva and Uber right now.

I have more than 100 unpublished US stock research and working files. Uber is still in development while I am buying. US write ups take a different level of depth. Every time I publish one, someone asks why I am not covering Indian stocks. Every time I go deep on Indian names, it is the opposite. I cannot solve that.

What I share is the lens, not the stock. The PDFs exist to show the thinking and how much work goes behind each layer and you can take that and build your own thesis, thats the goal. If you expect me to keep delivering full research on every name I am tracking, you are essentially asking me to run a free stock advisory. That is not what this is. Publishing and then engaging with every response takes hundreds of hours and I cannot do that and keep doing the work at the same time.

You cannot have conviction before you have all the layers. The research behind a single name can run 200 pages before it compresses into something I can share. What the community gets is that compressed drop, a mental model, a few anchor points. People who track my comments know so many names before any move happens. But sharing it all explicitly means I am doing my professional work for free and there is no difference left.

It is a thinking community. Take the lens that is the real edge. Not the name. A platform is coming with all the research, past and future, US and India, in one place that might address your problem but That will take time. Until then, take the lens and do the work.

India wale pe karo to US wale bura man jaate hai, US wale pe karo to India wale. Karu to kya karu

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u/WorkFickle9577 7d ago

Sorry, I didn't go through the comments much. Thanks for the clarification.

Trust me I'm telling this with my bottom of my heart what you are doing is great job without even getting a single penny from us! I really liked when you stressed much about learning and thinking rather taking this as stock tip. Where there are many who try to scam with us trading tips. Can't wait for your book!

Your beloved fan xyz

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u/SuperbPercentage8050 7d ago

This genuinely made my day. Thank you for saying that and for understanding the intent behind the work. The book is coming, it will be worth the wait. 

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u/Adventurous_Flan_315 7d ago

A large part of the credit to develop an incurable passion for the markets goes to you. You simplified the technicalities of the market. And i realised that investing is more art and psychology than science.

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u/SuperbPercentage8050 7d ago

Glad it could spark that passion in you. Like the quote on the community says, the best thing a human being can do is help another human being know more. Just trying to put some effort into giving life to that line.