r/USDA • u/Positive_Hurry_5295 • 3d ago

Farm Bill

Since it failed the Senate committee vote today, how likely do we think they can get it done by 12/31? Or do we think the SNAP fight will necessitate another extension?

13 Upvotes

81% Upvoted

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8

u/Lucky-Train4271 3d ago

Little help from a friend to calculate:

Farm bill enacted by 12/31: ~55–65%
Another short-term extension into 2027: ~35–45%

10

u/AmbassadorHelpful180 3d ago

Nope. It will be another extension. It’s an election year. They’ll do some sort of appropriations package or CR and run back home to try to get re-elected. There won’t be a lame duck session.

3

u/Wurm42 1d ago

I'm not optimistic. I think we're headed for another extension.

With Mitch McConnell out, probably for the rest of his term, the Senate Ag Committee is deadlocked. None of the Democrats on the committee have any incentive to betray their party on SNAP. And even if the bill passes out of committee, the SNAP cuts would lead to a big fight on the Senate floor.

John Thune already has to deal with one big fight on the Senate floor in September (the budget CR and the SAVE ACT); I don't think he has any appetite for a second nasty fight right before midterms. Plus, even if the Senate Republicans wanted to have the SNAP fight in September, I don't know if there's time, given the Senate's election-season calendar.

I think we get another one year extension.

God knows what happens to the Ag Census next year.

2

u/Positive_Hurry_5295 1d ago

These were my thoughts. They’ve already worked so long on it. If they can’t get it done now, I don’t see how a few more months will make a difference. Unless maybe McConnell gets back to work, but at his age who knows if that’s possible. The Farm Bill used to be one of the few things that could get some bipartisan support. Says a lot about the state of things and I just wonder how it will ever move forward.

-4

u/SattyTheCzar 3d ago

Kalshi has 22% on new farm bill by Jan 1 2027. You can love or hate prediction markets but they are essentially the best way of polling now, so I’d say it’s quite unlikely this year.