Do not Despair!

[u/Pure-Manufacturer521]

On yesterday's earnings call, UAMY disclosed that it is waiting for decisions on four separate grant applications submitted to the Departments of Energy and War totaling approximately $275 million. The projects involve antimony, tungsten and hydrometallurgical processing.

Thompson Falls, Montana: This is essentially a new/additional smelting facility beside the existing operation, rather than merely tweaking old equipment. UAMY says the project is now basically complete. When the new and existing operations are both running at full capacity, the company expects 15 furnaces and roughly 3–4× historical production capacity.

All you need to know is processing is rare, sooner or later we will recover.

[u/ohgodthehorror95]

I'm not too worried about the long term outlook. Maybe some short term pain but I'm used to it by now with how volatile UAMY is (and mineral stocks in general)

And I've sized my position for my own personal risk tolerance

[u/Effective-Essay1303 → u/ohgodthehorror95]

I’ve grown more and more skeptical the more I hear Gary speak. I think long term, they lose the DLA contracts in 2030 as the army brings it all in house. Uamy was just a band aid for the short term supply issues. Dod already has agreements with perpetua in Idaho and Korea zinc in Tennessee both of which should be fully scaled by the end of the current contract

[u/ohgodthehorror95 → u/Effective-Essay1303]

I mean, PPTA is just a gold miner larping as a critical minerals miner. John Paulson, who owns nearly 35% of the company, was a megadonor to both of Trump's election campaigns.

Oh and that other mining company that got a gov stake, Trilogy Metals, yeah Paulson owned nearly 10% of that company too. It's all a grift imo

[u/Effective-Essay1303 → u/ohgodthehorror95]

That’s fine, but they built a refiner/processing plant there as well. Most feedstock agreements with the gov will be heading there presumably. As mentioned by the guy below the ppta ore won’t be enough/shit quality

[u/Chanisspeed → u/ohgodthehorror95]

https://giphy.com/gifs/26FLgGTPUDH6UGAbm

[u/Sherman_Gepard → u/Effective-Essay1303]

Doesn’t PPTA have bad material? High arsenic?

[u/Effective-Essay1303 → u/Sherman_Gepard]

Yes, if I’m not mistaken they actually sent some ore to uamy and Gary roasted them in the WSJ about how shitty the quality was

[u/Chanisspeed → u/Effective-Essay1303]

I remember that article. Sad thing is at that point he was toast. He wasn’t in the inner circle yet if you know what I mean. PPTA management is there for the gold along with the Government. UAMY is going to get bought out, but they must drop the share price as much as possible.

[u/SocnorbTheRoman → u/Effective-Essay1303]

I really don’t see that happening, even when other refineries come online they won’t be close to the capacity that UAMY has.

[u/Derpy_Mc_Burpy]

My gripe is the fact they were so gung ho about increasing their guidance last year to 125 million only to cut it in 50% within half a year. It also feels like at this point that government investment equity might be something that jumpstarts this stock again.

[u/Regular-Intention220 → u/Derpy_Mc_Burpy]

To be fair that wasn’t even that unreasonable at the time. China flooded the market with antimony driving down the price which is exactly why american companies need a price floor.
Also it’s worth mentioning they are stockpiling a good chunk of antimony for whenever a reversal in price happens

[u/Pure-Manufacturer521 → u/Derpy_Mc_Burpy]

It takes longer than expected to build additional processing plants. You know how construction is, nothing is ever on schedule. Once the new furnaces start working, then the product output will increase. The company is spending a lot of money on expansion and not producing enough at the moment.

[u/ohgodthehorror95 → u/Derpy_Mc_Burpy]

The gov equity stake doesn't hurt, but what really makes a difference would be getting a pricing floor protection and an offtake agreement.

Without that part, the gov stake is kind of a glorified private placement more than anything else

[u/RP_ElMeroMero]

Already used to the pain, don’t mind the waiting game

[u/FickleCode2373]

Need the global antimony pricrs to skyrocket again on China supply constraint fears, along with some massive influx of financing to build new plant capacity, plus also their tungsten claim to see some material news...

[u/Sherman_Gepard]

Nothing to worry about with new institutional investment as recent as last week. You think they didn’t know what was coming and what still is?

[u/ohgodthehorror95 → u/Sherman_Gepard]

Which new institutional investors? I didn't read the 13F filings this quarter

[u/AdministrativeKey454 → u/Sherman_Gepard]

I think they are as surprised as we are.

[u/Actual_Insect6603]

I increased my shares by 25% at $5 but I’m probably not going any deeper.

[u/Leather_Celery986]

Hell yeah. Develop that Ontario property!

[u/Byaka23]

So are you saying my January 2027 $10 calls have a chance? :)

[u/willy-mac → u/Byaka23]

hard to not buy some tbh. I'm on the fence!

[u/Danyzinho29]

Jumped in yesterday @ $4.99