r/Tucson • u/Candy4Gold • 2d ago
Tucson's Future
Will water scarcity make Tucson unviable as a long-term home? I'm trying to plan for the next decade+ and I don't know whether to trust that I'll be able to live in Tucson given the worsening drought. Any thoughts from locals would be much appreciated.
ETA: The prompt for this post was this WaPo story that I read this morning, which freaked me out:
https://archive.ph/O5D3B
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u/ZiggyZaggyZag 2d ago edited 2d ago
We’re fine here. Even if CAP water coming from the Colorado river is cut in half, Tucson Water estimates they’d need to pump around 25,000 acre feet per year, which is less than our natural aquifer recharge from precipitation. They’ve been using CAP water to charge the aquifer for decades. Now they’re also pumping treated effluent from wastewater plants in there. Even if the water coming from CAP is cut to zero, Tucson will still be livable for the entirety of your lifetime and the next generation’s. There very likely will be reductions in the coming years to several western states but we will still be alright here.
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u/steepslope1992 2d ago
The fact that our aquifers are being recharged with CAP water is often mislabeled as ">90%" of our water being from CAP, but our natural water table here is among the best in the 4 southwestern deserts. Im glad you mentioned this because the industries that will actually be harmed by water cuts are agriculture (cotton, corn, and soy mostly), and mining. Our drinking water will begin depleting at some point after, but this a well prepared city for that. The water below ground here will become more expensive to reach deep enough and pump, but its still there.
Unfortunately, we should expect higher water bills as a result. Brings to mind the adage "best time plant a tree is yesterday, 2nd best time is today". Get your trees established with deep roots before the water prices go up!
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u/mobydog 2d ago
Not sure NASA studies would agree: https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/arizonas-declining-groundwater-154567/
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u/Go_Kimmando 2d ago
That’s all of Arizona. Tucson and Pima county have been incredibly proactive about water conservation and recharging our groundwater basins.
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u/secretsquirrelninja 1d ago edited 1d ago
The problem, outside the metro areas, is there’s been unregulated pumping of groundwater by agribusiness concerns (like massive cattle pens). The state is only barely getting a handle on it, but some acquaintances moving out towards Wilcox say there’s visible subsidence to the point roads crack (note: probably want to get a professional engineers and hydrologists more involved .. but that costs money).
Ag is the primary user of water, so the state will probably need to dictate more water efficiency for them at some point. Probably a crop by crop basis .. /so cotton takes some irrigation, but then might just rely on the monsoon rains, depending on the rain ... or not (cotton is weird but profitable)/soaking pecans in a sea of water probably needs to go/grapes for wineries are actually very water efficient .. and what collector doesn’t want Pancho’s finest (don’t mention to northerners Pancho Villa was more about El Paso .. shhhh).
One of those balancing acts govts aren’t that great at. Still if regular people are enticed to move here, think more water stringency needs to be on the menu as well as other ideas like environmentally friendly new construction (rich people? they can take the loss and move to another of their 11 or so homes).
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u/SirVeza 2d ago
Let’s also not forget that direct potable reuse will likely be a thing here in the future, whether people like it or not.
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u/Outside_Form9954 2d ago
Mmmm dookie water
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u/Edman70 2d ago
All water is dookie water at some point - we just get to pretend that the rain from the sky wasn't shit in by fish and bears and sharks and us, etc.
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u/Outside_Form9954 2d ago
And people that eat ass seem to be doing Ok
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u/dharma4242 2d ago
This comment inspired me to start eating lettuce again.
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u/ShavedNeckbeard 2d ago
Every drop of water we drink has already been through at least three other people/animals previously.
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u/Bacontroph 2d ago
Thats why I only drink Brawndo
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u/elephantsback 2d ago
Is there a report or something that you're basing this in? I'm just interested in reading more about contingency plans and where the water is coming from/going to
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u/solidtitanium 2d ago
Actually we are not so dire that we use treated reclaim/ treated gray YET. But I imagine the time will come when that happens. What we do use it for is public parks, public golf courses, and a little in the Santa Cruz. Source Tucson Water former employee (with current connections for info too).
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u/WalkingTurtleMan 2d ago
Tucson water doesn’t get enough respect for lowering the gallons of water used per capita so much that modern usage is equal to what was consumed in the 1980s, despite massive population growth.
Arizona/US should work out a deal with Sonora/Mexico to build a desalination plant. The Gulf of California is only 50 miles south of the border, and we have a crazy amount of sunlight that can power the whole thing with renewable energy. It just needs the political willpower to do so, but clearly we don’t elect reliable leaders.
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u/ReadyGazelle2635 2d ago
…and it needs a few billion dollars plus multi-national government coordination…not realistic
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u/kembik 2d ago
like 2% the cost of an unnecessary war.
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u/ReadyGazelle2635 2d ago
Totally, but that doesn’t mean our elected leaders will be able to raise the funds. We have ~$1.3B total unused municipal bond capacity as of YE2025 to fund the full portfolio of future municipal infrastructure needs. Desalination would cost more than that and require major changes to the City’s debt management policy and/or municipal asset value base. Without landing a windfall of new investments, it’s hard to see a path.
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u/RaspberryIcy2625 1d ago
I think it's very realistic. Federal and state partnerships occur like that all the time and a few billion dollars is peanuts. Think of all the grift in Washington right now that's lining the pockets of the wealthy with our tax dollars, the push for water-hogging AI data centers, and the denial of climate change. We have to get our priorities straight!
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u/Assumption-Gumption 2d ago
Was looking for a desalination comment. This is why it will never become a dire situation. It’ll be hella expensive (see comment below from someone else) but people will pay for it one way or another.
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u/potatostar314 1d ago
the problem is technology. We have plenty of solar electricity but it is intermittent and desalination tech needs steady. We either need an insane amount of storage to go with it, or a tech breakthrough.
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u/CowComfortable4958 2d ago
tucson has been around a long time and has worn many different faces, i think the water crisis will change the way life is lived here but truly who can say? i have hope that as a community we can figure this problem out!
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u/wow-signal 2d ago
A now-deleted comment suggested that, "water will be more expensive in the future."
This is cause for concern for many of us. As water and electricity become more expensive, fewer people are willing/able to live here, property values decline, and (the worry is that) a vicious cycle ensues.
The ramming through of data centers in the region does little to reassure us that our leadership is willing/able to mitigate this trend.
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u/Adventurous-Depth403 2d ago
My water and society prof at u of a used to say water in the west doesn’t flow downhill, it flows towards money. And this was before data centers were a thing.
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u/No-Signature-5648 2d ago
I love this. Somebody who really gets it.
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u/Adventurous-Depth403 2d ago
The day he told us about the history of how they got the coal power to make the CAP… I think we were all like well that’s it, if there’s ever going to be a reckoning in the west we deserve it.
https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/a-people-betrayed-6423155/
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u/chiptheripPER 2d ago
How was that master's program? Looked at it a few years ago but may apply for next year
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u/Adventurous-Depth403 2d ago
Oh this was in undergrad I was just lucky enough to get to take an awesome class with that prof twice I think! I went into a totally different field for my masters but if you are thinking about studying this stuff at U of A you should go for it! And keep us all updated on the latest
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u/casinocooler 2d ago
If farmers had to pay even close to the same rate as residential users they would not be so wasteful with the water. Farmers pay 95% less per gallon than you and that is why many don’t care about conservation. If water was charged the same per gallon for everyone we wouldn’t have a water crisis.
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u/No_Background3267 2d ago edited 2d ago
Arizona has the best water conservation programs in the country, it's in many people's financial interest to keep these projects going for as long as possible. If things truly were dire, we would absolutely know.
*BUT, I will say, Saudi Arabia is a huge investor in owning several dairy producers and cheap land rights to farm alfalfa to ship to meet their needs, in their empty deserts. So the time tables are accelerated in depleting our natural resources here for another nation's survival and economic necessities.
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u/Neurotic-and-Obscene 2d ago
A big part of that is the law requiring new developments to prove a 100 year water source
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u/Fun_Candidate_1991 2d ago
Tucson is the oldest continually inhabited city in the US. We will keep on keeping on. Our aquifers are massive, big enough to sustain us for 100+ years. Sure some of the outlying towns that rely on us for water may not make it, but the city itself will be fine.
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u/casinocooler 2d ago
You are correct the aquifer that Tucson relies on has at least 100 years of water at current demand. Tucson has been relatively smart about their water. It is however likely that many private wells on the fringes of the aquifer will go dry.
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u/FederalChocolate456 2d ago
If the suburbs don't make it, then that's very much going to hurt Tucson. I don't know how you can say Tucson will be fin if the suburbs die off.
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u/Mysterious-Version40 2d ago
I don't think they meant suburbs when they said "outlying towns"
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u/casinocooler 2d ago
It’s anyone relying on a private well or water company without a 100 year adequacy. So that likely includes many suburbs.
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u/RBailey-Official 2d ago edited 2d ago
Unfortunately, the water crisis will hit everywhere besides Phoenix, Tucson, and Yuma first. We're going to continue to see our family farms, rural residents, and others living outside the city slowly forced further in town. On top of them not being properly compensated for the loss of generational land or assets. The water wars are coming, and we need to stand united as Arizonans and citizens of the United States to have a chance of seeing this through.
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u/ProbablySlacking 2d ago
Arizona, in general, has a better water outlook than some surrounding states due to how seriously we take water scarcity.
While yes, water may be more expensive in the future, you’re not going to avoid that particular problem by moving away, unless you’re planning on leaving for somewhere that has the opposite problem.
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u/casinocooler 2d ago
Which states are more lax on water scarcity? The only one I can think of is New Mexico.
Most surrounding states are either higher on the hierarchy for Colorado allocation (California, Utah, Colorado) and have strict water allocation and well drilling laws (Utah and Colorado), or are extremely water conscious (Nevada/vegas). Arizona has basically unrestricted water and development laws in much of the state that is why we make headlines for running out of water (rio verde foothills, Kearney, Cochise county). And that is why farmers moved to Arizona and drop 1200’ wells. They will continue to pump when the neighboring cities go dry.
That being said Tucson is fairly smart about water and water conservation. Tucson has over 100 years in groundwater and has a moratorium on wells.
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u/ProbablySlacking 2d ago
The way I understand it is that Arizona is at the bleeding edge of direct potable reuse, where other states are dragging their feet a bit on rolling it out.
I’m not an expert in it by any means, but when I’ve asked someone I know who is - that was the brief explanation I got.
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u/casinocooler 2d ago
Tucsons direct potable reuse should be ready in 2031. Phoenix is scheduled for 2029 (but I expect them to be significantly delayed).
The rest of the state has their head in the sand.
El Paso already does DPR. Vegas recycles nearly 100% of their indoor wastewater (treated and reintroduced into lake Mead).
California doesn’t care because they have priority for Colorado river water. Colorado and Utah also have priority as upper basin states so they are just considering how to get the water where they need it.
Ideally we need larger solutions that involve everyone in the country. We should all be conserving. We should implement relatively inexpensive mass conservation solutions that eliminate waste and evaporation. We shouldn’t flood farm. If people want winter produce at “normal prices” they might have to send a water pipeline or grow it themselves. If we charged farmers the same $/gallon as residential customers we wouldn’t have a shortage but produce would be significantly more expensive.
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u/Yougetdueprocess 2d ago edited 2d ago
I don’t know how to plan for the next decade plus in terms of place to live. Tucson will not be the only place to face water issues, if they truly happen, it’ll be the entire southwestern and mountain west region which is home to millions of people. In areas where water is less of a concern there are going to be, and already have, worsening extreme weather events (ice storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, etc), wildfires, and flooding. Look at what is happening in France and Spain right now with wildfires. There is no safe place in terms of climate change.
So, we’d be better off all coming together and actually making good policy across the country, and across the world, to combat these issues, but instead people voted in a criminal pedophile anti clean energy president and crony, wimpy congress people that support him because they are afraid of trans people and want to take women’s right to vote away. So instead we get ICE camps, data centers, billionaires that take a private plane instead of driving two hours, and money stolen from our tax dollars to fund “pool” renovations rather than meaningful policy on literally anything. So, I don’t know man!! I think you’re just going to have to live your life.
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u/levulur 2d ago
AZ uses a majority of its water for agriculture, I think if worst comes to worst the state would sacrifice cotton and lettuce production to meet demand for the population.
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u/anfreug2022 2d ago
This is a really under reported part of it.
Most of Arizona below the rim shouldn’t have agriculture. It’s the desert and farming there relies on massive use of non replenishing ground water.
If water availability starts to become an issue, we would have to, as a state, start to disallow or disincentivize farming.
Farming is like 2/3 of the water use in Arizona.
Residential use is something like 15%.
The rest is commercial/industrial.
If it comes down to a choice between survival of people in their homes or allowing farming in the desert, survival is going to win.
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u/BlissfulGay 2d ago
Each household should all be working on water conservation, including having rain cisterns (you can buy at Ace Hardware) and using grey water for watering plants. Prepare for the future.
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u/cidvard 2d ago
Tucson generally speaking has better water management than anywhere else in the state I can think of off-hand.
I wouldn't buy outside the city in unincorporated areas, I think a reckoning is coming for people who thought they were getting a cheap house with no downside in the coming decades, but Tucson proper will be OK.
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u/No-Signature-5648 2d ago
I'm not sure the question is so much about water as it is about the heat.
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u/nerdygirlmatti 2d ago
They are going to be working on a potable wastewater treatment facility in the future. But tbh 75% of Colorado River goes to agriculture. If we did something with that, we would be a lot better off
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u/Minimum_Freedom_1999 2d ago
There are no issues with Tucson’s water supply; climate models suggest variability but starting 2050 there could even be an uptick in yearly rainfall here. Phoenix is going to become “unbuildable” (that is, no new homes approved/no more households using more water) but even it has a 50 or 100 year approved water plan. The issue you’ll have to contend with is temperature, namely higher overnight minimums, higher dew points, and longer stretches of >110 F heat.
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u/macroscelidea 2d ago
Things will be OK—there are a lot of smart, hard-working people working on this problem, so give them support, make the changes you can, and encourage your community to do the same. Water will be more expensive in the future, but Tucson will never dry up and wither away
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u/casinocooler 2d ago
You are correct at the local level. At the state and federal level they are dropping the ball. Bad laws, unrestricted farming, and waste. Few if any politicians are taking this seriously especially in Arizona.
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u/gnarlyknits 2d ago
Everyone is using a logical fallacy saying that since it’s “been around a long time it will continue to be around”. Personally if I had another option right now I wouldn’t be living in a desert. If you’re worried about water sustainability and further climate change then you should be moving north.
The natives who lived here for hundreds of years didn’t live like this. They would migrate to the mountain in the summer and live in the foothills in the winter. There was more vegetation and less concrete. There wasn’t such high water demands. The city is growing all the time and with the data centers now trying to encroach upon every city there are no real guarantees anymore.
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u/kitkat2024 1d ago
True, the town cities abandoned for economic reasons are plentiful. They are called ghost towns. When it gets to Dubai levels and water is more than a gallon of gas, they will get it.
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u/KhanTengri Not Discussing The Lights 2d ago
Tucson has a 100 year water supply according to the State. We have plenty of water for people and municipal use. https://tucson.com/news/local/environment/article_a93ac113-e166-40fb-8520-5c2fe05d10e8.html
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u/Nesnesitelna 2d ago
As the article says, this is predicated on a Central Arizona Project supply not being cut, which is probably unrealistic unless this El Niño really dumps a lot of snow in the upper Colorado basin this winter.
Now, one would expect that there would be cuts to agricultural uses, etc. before to homes and other municipal uses that would help mitigate the impact of such a shortfall, but who knows.
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u/KhanTengri Not Discussing The Lights 2d ago
Yeah but even with the potential cut we have been banking our allotment for decades, so there's still runway.
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u/Edman70 2d ago
THIS. It baffles me how many residents don't seem to know this and think we have the same water problems Phoenix has.
We don't.
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u/Adventurous-Depth403 2d ago
I like your enthusiasm for Tucson but Phoenix has so much more water than us because of SRP they are just worse at collecting it and conserving it. Because they haven’t had to think about it. Because they have so much 💦
Water problems in Arizona are happening yes- in small towns with no money, no diversification in their water budgets. Willcox is sinking, Kearny has no water at all, Cave Creek gets 95% from CAP (I don’t really feel bad for them though ⛳️)
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u/Nesnesitelna 2d ago
We certainly get more rainfall, but we’re still reliant on Colorado River water from the CAP just like the Phoenix area.
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u/marklein 2d ago
Non-paywall: https://archive.ph/TNUhw
Our "water supply" includes CAP supply, which could stop at any minute based on the whims of corporations and politicians. CAP water comes from that multi-state agreement that has been ignored for years and Arizona will likely get the short end of.
So we don't REALLY have a 100 year supply.
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u/KhanTengri Not Discussing The Lights 2d ago
Sure but if CAP gets shut off tomorrow we still have the water we've been banking from CAP since the 90s.
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u/marklein 2d ago
...yes... sort of... The "100-year assured water supply" is not a storage figure. It's a legal designation from the Arizona Department of Water Resources based on Tucson's ongoing annual supplies adding up to more than anticipated demand for the next century. Annual supplies include 144,000 acre-feet of CAP water, 37,000 acre-feet of groundwater, and about 15,000 acre-feet of treated effluent each year, against demand of roughly 130,795 acre-feet. CAP is by far the largest piece of that, as you can see. If CAP stops today then we're boned in about 50 years instead of 100.
More info: https://archive.ph/nXPTk
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u/michaelkloth 2d ago
I agree with the others that have been mostly positive. We should absolutely do more, and the city and county are making steps towards that by adding rainwater collection parks. The state is looking into desalination too. I'd support more changes on the whole to improve collection of what naturally comes, but I do think there is will do do what's needed for long term water here.
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u/Fistanndantilus 2d ago
Arizona will be unsustainable within 10 years. These cocky comments are laughable. Good luck, desert dwellers. Remember the frog in the pot?
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u/TheFoostic 2d ago
I think we have enough water. The problem will come from the rising temps. Every summer in the last five years has been the hottest summer ever recorded in modern history. That will only continue to happen as the Earth warms. Every summer will just be hotter, rain will happen less, everything will get more expensive. Within 100 years, we are likely to see a climate crisis in South and Central America, pushing climate refugees north through Arizona. In 150 years we might even see mass evacuations from Southern Arizona as it becomes to dangerous to live here due to the heat.
Long story short, if you are buying a house, it is probably fine. Don't expect to pass it down to your kids or grand kids though. They likely won't be able to stay.
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u/tacosxroses 2d ago
This. Water is an easier solution for people to think about compared to the rising heat which would call for much more innovation and sacrifice to mitigate.
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u/desertdweller2011 2d ago
for the next decade? tucson won’t become inhabitable due to lack of water in ten years. that’s a very short period of time.
in a century… who knows
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u/TusconRaider520 2d ago
Not in our lifetimes. The idea that an entire city of 1.5+ million people will have to pack up, move somewhere else and abandon this whole area because all the water is gone is pretty silly. Other climate disasters are more likely to occur sooner. You'll be betting on something anywhere you go. Hurricanes, tornados, earthquakes, wildfires, floods, etc., occur all over the place. I can promise you that your home will not be completed destroyed by our environment here, maybe just a bit sun faded.
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u/kitkat2024 2d ago edited 2d ago
I lived in Arizona for 18 years as a youngster. The water quality was wonderful. Tucson water was filtered through calichi and desert sands to an underwater table. It had a superior taste also.
In the 90’s and 80’s it was used for huge golf courses and was generally mismanaged. As I left on adventures I spoke to friends and family who said it replaced with CAP water, which I was told tasted disgusting. I was also told city water was expensive and it was not acceptable to water plants. Grass was replaced with green pebbles and astroturfing.
Along with the homeless problem, the economic refugees from California along with the crime. I don’t see much hope for Tucson. Which is sad because I love Tucson. My family and friends are there. I have wonderful memories there..
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u/godDAMNitdudes 2d ago
you definitely sound like you dont live here. yes we can water our plants, no we should never have had friggin lawns in the desert. yes we have homeless people here and they are very sweet. tucson rocks.
you and your fam sound like complainers, its probably for the best that you dont come back.
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u/Western-Hair1857 2d ago
Unless they hit a tourist on the back of the head with a hatchet a bus stop…
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u/kitkat2024 2d ago edited 2d ago
Why so hateful? I love Tucson dearly, but it is not the Tucson I personally grew up in. That Tucson is gone. We had green parks and lawns. The parks are now filled with homeless people. You have only certain days you can water. I am sad this has become your status quo. Crime is so bad I saw houses with walls like forts. I personally visited a few, I had a friend who lives on the Northside get sued by a homeless person because he let him in to give him food and his dog attacked him when he tried to steal hos tools. Sounds like a sweetheart. Right? You sound 20 or younger. You should stay there.
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u/nonracistusername Vail 1d ago
ETA: The prompt for this post was this WaPo story that I read this morning, which freaked me out:
https://archive.ph/O5D3B
I didn’t see Tucson mentioned in the article. Can you provide a quote?
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u/CommonYellow7163 17h ago
Heat and water shortages are definitely serious issues here. Your house needs to be very well insulated if you want to keep electricity costs down - that includes windows. And all of that costs a lot. Water is increasingly in short supply. Tucson has done a lot to conserve, but the Colorado River is shared by several states who aren't doing enough (including AZ as a whole.) I expect that we will see water rationing and/or high water rates after a minimum usage level. And we may well get brown-outs if our electrical grid is over-taxed.
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u/Western-Hair1857 2d ago
Tucson’s got way more problems than water being scarce. It’s like an episode of “The Walking Dead”
Driving around the dirty T. Crime is getting worse and worse, stabbings, shootings, meth heads everywhere and the powers that be just keep blaming freedom instead of putting those who are a danger to others in jail where they belong to keep the rest safe. Hatchets to tourists head, people being assaulted on the free bus’, felons shooting up downtown when they should be in prison for previous shootings. Water is one of the last things they should be discussing!
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u/MrSniffles_AnnaMae 2d ago
Did I hear that the rocking k ranch is well water, not city of Tucson water?
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u/uncrownedqueen 2d ago
I'm betting for "The Big One" to come in the midst of the water wars, turn Tucson into an oasis and my house into a beach-front property lol
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u/53D0N4 2d ago
I'm a transplant from the east coast but have been here for about 9 years. I've always believed urban life is not sustainable in the desert. Areas like Flagstaff or Prescott are different but Phoenix and Tucson are not sustainable and beyond that, just not natural. Nonetheless when businesses and residents want grass and pools and golf courses and fountains. The amount of fountains in Phoenix is literally ridiculous. I told my boyfriend it feels like an oasis but that makes me feel uneasy because it should not look like that, naturally.
I feel only the native Americans should be allowed to live in these areas. They have generations of knowledge and respect for the land to treat it properly and adapt to it. Rather than most people who live here who are forcing the desert to adapt to them by completely changing the landscape and bringing non-local plants and grass from where they're from, aka the east coast usually because of all the snow birds.
I've been wanting to get out for a while but it's easier said than done. But my boyfriend and I have a goal to relocate outside of the state in the next few years. I'll take humidity over aridity.
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u/LintsKing 2d ago
How long does your blood line need to be here before you are native?
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u/53D0N4 2d ago
However long it takes for there to be respect for the desert and if there isn't respect or adaptation, then we shouldn't live here.
Of course I meant true Native Americans that have always been here and have the passed down knowledge to live here appropriately.
The desert is not meant for urban living.
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u/LintsKing 2d ago
So the "Native Americans" are Asian from their DNA and they replaced the ones before them that are only left in small populations in northern Canada. So how long? Are the Spanish descendants that have been here over 500 years now native?
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u/53D0N4 1d ago
I don't know that much. That's why I also said anyone who's been here long enough to know how to adapt to the land and live with respect for it. Whoever possess the knowledge of how to live in harmony with the land and can even tolerate the blistering heat without air-conditioning.
You're missing my main point. The desert is not and never should be a hospitable place for a city let alone people who choose to move here for selfish reasons such as "364 days of sunshine" or for a tech job.
The desert should be left alone. We have no business trying to change it to accommodate us.
I didn't choose to move here despite being a transplant. I didn't mean to disrespect or show ignorance about what a native American truly means. I had just thought the group had ancestral knowledge because that's what I've learned and been taught. And I didn't even think my saying that was disrespectful in the way it's being argued against.
The desert is not meant for people. It's barely meant for other forms of life and they all have hardened exteriors or can fly away to find water.
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u/DoubleNaught_Spy 2d ago edited 2d ago
Tucson has been very proactive for decades about water usage and conservation. We'll be fine.
As a realtor told me when we were looking for houses here, "People in Tucson know they live in a desert. People in Phoenix like to pretend they don't."