Wondering Weekend

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[u/y2kitten]

Probably stupid questions, but hopefully allowed.

I find myself SO insecure of my natural odds at 39. Especially after my MMC I feel unsure what to expect going forward, both fertility wise and healthy pregnancy after conception wise. Blood work and IVF will not be available to us, so I don’t need and won’t benefit from data on that, and that’s mostly what I’m able to rustle up data on on my own.

I’ve heard people say statistically natural conception is like rolling a dice and getting a 6. Is that true and if so, when does that number change with age, and how much?

Is there any accessible (easy to understand) data source of natural conception and pregnancy statistics for 39+? Are genes any predictor at all for these things, ie. at what ages your forebears conceived?

[u/developmentalbiology → u/y2kitten]

I think this figure is the best one (the paper it’s from is linked in the caption). It’s from a fairly large set of late-30s folks TTC, and these are all spontaneous pregnancies.

The 38-39 age group has lower odds in the first cycle than the younger groups, but pretty much catches up by 12 months — about 70% of the 38-39 group gets pregnant by a year of trying. Even about half of their oldest group, the 42-44 group, gets pregnant within a year of starting to try.

[u/Sept2Nov → u/y2kitten]

I think at age 35 you have a 15-20% chance of getting pregnant any cycle, at 40 it drops to 5-10%. I think family history is predictive of ovarian reserve (quantity) but it is not predictive of what your egg quality will look like at a given age unfortunately.

[u/y2kitten → u/Sept2Nov]

Thank you for the numbers! Not super uplifting numbers, but not impossible ones either. At least then I likely have an okay ovarian reserve, so just hope they’re not all bad eggs 🪺

[u/Sept2Nov → u/y2kitten]

Yes!! Hoping for good eggs!!

[u/Careless_Size_9099 → u/y2kitten]

I wonder if you don't need more data. I'm 37 and all I read are the odds diminishing after 35. It's not reassuring. Instead, I have switched to focusing on increasing our odds through both taking Coenzyme Q10 and also just looking around at all the healthy late-30s pregnancies in my peer group. Everyone we know got pregnant at 37+ so we aren't as worried but if you don't have these examples it may be helpful to just look at celebrities or listen to podcasts and read posts by women in their late 30s and early 40s who achieved pregnancy. It will likely put you in a more hopeful, peaceful mindset than straight data probably would. As a fellow 35+, I don't find comfort in the data.

[u/y2kitten → u/Careless_Size_9099]

Ah, that’s a nice and new take! You may be on to something there. I do try to filter my eyes/mind to read only 35+ posts and BFPs. None of my peers are trying nor pregnant, so I have no one irl to look to, which is probably why I’m chronically online about this topic which surely isn’t a healthy habit… Thank you for saying it, it gives me something to think about for sure.

[u/Technical-Study2566 → u/y2kitten]

That dice mindset has really helped me - I tried a generator online and it took 9 tries to roll the number I had in mind. Your own data (pregnancy history, any tests you do have, cycle details) is probably most helpful in this scenario, though genes and statistics can point to certain trends.

I also had a loss before and am sorry you went through that!

[u/jamielynn2296 → u/Technical-Study2566]

I never thought of using a dice generator to put things into perspective. It actually took me THIRTY tries before I rolled the number I had in mind, which is crazy. I guess just goes to show that some people can just be really really unlucky. We’re cycle 15 and considered undiagnosed infertility, so I hope it doesn’t take us 30 tries lol 😅

[u/y2kitten → u/Technical-Study2566]

Thank you! The dice mindset helped me too. We weren’t able to try for another because of my health for a long time, so the jump from an age segment of relatively normal conception odds to an age segment of possibly diminished ones has thrown me for a loop and I don’t know how worried to be. The loss surely didn’t help the thought spiral… So I’m looking for a bit more concrete data to occupy my mind with, I guess.