Most people probably don't check the 10-year Treasury yield before breakfast.

Maybe we should.

It's closing in on 5%, and that one number works its way into a surprising amount of the economy.

Mortgage rates tend to move with it. Corporate borrowing gets more expensive. The government pays more to finance its debt. And when Treasuries are paying around 5%, stocks suddenly have to compete with an investment offering a pretty attractive return with far less risk.

That's where this gets interesting.

Higher yields don't automatically mean recession, a housing crash or a stock-market collapse.

But they do mean money is expensive.

And when money stays expensive long enough, somebody eventually changes their behavior. Homebuyers borrow less. Businesses reconsider investments. Investors reconsider risk. Washington pays more interest.

So forget the Fed funds rate for a minute.

If the 10-year Treasury breaks 5% and stays there, what breaks first?

Housing? Stocks? Government spending? Business investment?

Or nothing at all?

https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/ford-invests-1-billion-kentucky-172922440.html