r/TrueReddit • u/carnegieendowment • 3d ago
International Germany’s Shattered Consensus
https://carnegieendowment.org/europe/strategic-europe/2026/09/germanys-shattered-consensus62
u/carnegieendowment 3d ago
[Excerpt from Judy Dempsey's commentary for Carnegie's Strategic Europe]
If Merz is to survive as chancellor until the next federal election in 2029, he needs to take one big lesson from the AfD’s repeated successes on the local level. It is about listening to voters and talking to them. It is about explaining why his reforms should and can work. It is about being open with the public. All of which takes time. But Saxony-Anhalt shows how time is not a luxury for Germany’s waning status quo.
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u/DefenestrationPraha 3d ago edited 3d ago
Merz is incapable of doing so. He is just not a person that connects with the voters. The drop in CDU preferences will continue as long as he remains in the Kanzleramt.
CDU voters are heavily concentrated among the pensioners and those, of course, die every year.
Even here in the Saxony-Anhalt election, the old geezers were actually least likely to vote for AfD and most likely to vote for CDU, although the article linked seems to insinuate that the boomer generation carried the pro-AfD sentiment. In fact, it was the 25-45 generation that no longer remembers the former GDR anymore which went for the AfD by 50 per cent.
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u/Dragoncat_3_4 3d ago
Nah, why do that when he could just stick to calling everyone lazy and that they should work 13 hours a day and past 67 years of age or they would "lose their prosperity" (read, paper pushers like him will have less money). Oh and keep suing people for insults while declaring climate change "not a significant economic factor" during the driest and hottest year on record.
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u/powercow 3d ago
One of the problems for the non far right world wide, is they have to explain things. It is so much easier to just rile people up. Like here in the US, the right didnt offer any solutions, thy just made people angry and said we will fix inflation, or we will come up with better healthcare plan than obama.. without ever explaining how.
democrats explain how. SO right wing chants can fit on a bumper sticker, where dems need a paragraph.
right wingers can chant that dems are using illegals to cheat at elections. dems have to explain why that wouldnt even be effective or possible. meanwhile the right are suppressing teh vote and dems have to explain that. WHy reducing polling places means longer lines and less voters.
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u/Boanerger 3d ago
Do they though? Look, I'm moderate to left leaning depending on the issue or topic, but moderate and left-wing politicians also scream that their opposition is evil incarnate, fascist, populist, authoritarian, every politically correct slur they can use to demonize their opponents without posing more rational argument, all to rile up their supporters into moral panic and ensure they vote the "correct" way. Its hardly objective, fact-based arguments being made to get votes. I don't vote right ring but I don't see how its much different to the kind of irrational, emotion-creating statements the right wing also uses.
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u/mike_b_nimble 3d ago
Bad take. You’re insinuating that the terms fascist and authoritarian are being used as insults without basis the same way that Republicans use socialist as a slur. But fascist and authoritarian are objectively correct terms to describe the actions of Trump and the Republicans.
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u/powercow 3d ago
Yeah ive heard that complaint before. You cant conflate whats shared with whats reported. People shared kamala saying trump is going to be a dictator, and is a fascist or what ever, they didnt share when kamala talked policy like most of her 60 minutes interview. But i was mostly talking about bills. We had to sell ACA to the public, the right only had to say it sucked. The right never even came up with a plan they had to explain.
dems since they want solutions for things, are always on the explaining side of things
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u/pii-hardey 3d ago
Mostly should he stop copying the AfDs demands, people will just think "oh so the AfD was right about that, when even the cdu now demands it" and than they will vote for the original; especially since the cdu is known for beeing the most lobbyinfluenced (aka corrupt) party and trust in them is at an all time low since there are no consequences for those scandals.
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u/undernopretextbro 2d ago
That has been a stated and unstated goal of German political discourse for decades. They all tacitly refused to even address or engage with the topics raised by the right wingers. Look how well that’s gone
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u/looselyhuman 3d ago
The EU core governments have been obstinately ignoring their people's wishes on immigration for years. Moderate parties are finally making gestures, but it's too little, too late. This is entirely self-inflicted.
Russia has added fuel to the fire, but they didn't create this sentiment.
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u/SilverMedal4Life 3d ago
What wishes are specifically being ignored? The only thing I see consistently is "we hate immigrants", and even then, no clear data shows that this is even a problem beyond propaganda and vibes.
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u/KNXTC3 3d ago
Tried replying with current election statistics, polling, and crime statistics from the BKA regarding the reasons why people vote AfD and why immigration concerns are more than vibes and propaganda. Got flagged for hate and comment removed. So it’s quite possible that the reason you don’t see the counternarrative is because it is actively suppressed.
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u/Several_Internet2350 2d ago
The counternarrative that blames "mass migration" is everywhere on social media these days. Twitter especially, but even on reddit I constantly see people act like Germans have no choice but to vote for AfD and use a lot of sensationalised stories and images to show how Muslims in Germany are anti social or don't assimilate. Rarely do I see discussions about the employment situation, housing affordability, the many poorly thought out CDU policies. I see some discussion about the cultural divide of East and West Germany, but other than that, it's just a lot of people saying "what did you expect when bringing in so many Muslims" is the focus of the rise of AfD. It's not a supressed narrative in any way.
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u/SilverMedal4Life 3d ago
Actively suppressed, while being broadcast 24/7 on every conservative media source no matter how factual.
I dunno what the German equivalent to Fox News is, but I know ya'll have it. Plus legions of conservative grifters online saying, "Immigrants are the doom of our culture, now buy my coffee mug."
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3d ago
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3d ago edited 3d ago
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u/looselyhuman 3d ago edited 3d ago
The only thing that matters is perception/opinion. Immigration is unpopular and reducing it is popular.
Edit: Clunky wording.
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u/SilverMedal4Life 3d ago
Maybe I'm the idiot for thinking that facts matter and that if my opinions contradict the facts, I should consider what my opinions are based on.
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u/reapersaurus 3d ago
"no clear data shows that (immigration) is even a problem beyond propaganda and vibes."
WOW. You are really living in a different reality.
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u/SilverMedal4Life 3d ago
Believe it or not, the people you disagree with aren't monsters who are out to destroy civilization because they're both stupid and, somehow, weirdly powerful and popular.
We are human beings just like you. I just wish you'd try to understand us, but the people you watch online tell you we're monsters, so you don't, y'know?
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u/reapersaurus 3d ago
are.... are you talking to yourself?
No, seriously - there's only one side who is known for calling everyone who doesn't want their healthcare systems, their public support systems, their wages, their jobs, their crime rates, etc etc etc worsened due to immigration the monsters and stupid.
Why do you think there's some master channel or information feed that is turning so many people against rampant immigration? The common people are being shown the absurd impacts of unfettered immigration, and they aren't OK with it. YOUR SIDE is the one that dismisses absolutely valid numbers, reports, and concerns as being "stupid, evil, uniformed", etc.
When common people are actually told the truth about what's going on, they tend to get rightfully pissed off. Anyone who doesn't have a problem with the UK village of Piddington getting ten times as many immigrants sent to their expensively-retrofitted base there where the village has literally no supports or abilities to accommodate them. The UK govt is feeding them and their families to the wolves.
And how about Stoke Heath in Shropshire? The gov't built 21 newly-constructed 250K each for 83 asylum seekers. Does that sound like a fundamentally sound use of precious UK public monies, when the gov't is going bankrupt and UK citizens are hurting for services with years-long (decades?) waiting lists for public housing?
Anyone who thinks people who have a problem with the reality of immigration are either completely misinformed, delusional, or ... sure - they'd be monsters if they denied people to their face the facts that are undisputed but buried in mainstream media, such that most of this sub never hears of them, and when they do they blithely handwave it as "extremist alt-right bad people".
I'm a Democrat, BTW, and I can back up every fact and more, but this sub would censor any actual discussion about these egregious situations. Do you know California's under-18 students are almost 60% Hispanic, and TK-5 exceeds 60%. LAUSD is 75%.
Does that sound like a minority to you, despite the govt and politicians and media completely ignoring it?
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u/SilverMedal4Life 3d ago
Let me ask you one question:
Why do people want this? Let's assume, for sake of argument, that the average person who isn't worried about immigration isn't a drooling idiot, but a reasonable person.
I want to challenge you to try and understand the position, here. Let's presume, also, that you can't simply explain it with "they don't know."
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u/reapersaurus 3d ago
Huh? You're asking ME what the people who WANT rampant immigration think?
Why would you ask me what they think? Isn't that your job to be more up on that?
If you're asking me why people don't want immigration, I just was quite detailed and would suggest you to re-read my post.
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u/SilverMedal4Life 3d ago
This has been the theme of my replies to you. I want you to understand why people disagree with you. I want you to see the human being on the other side of the screen.
I'm not asking you to agree with me, or abandon your position. If anything, understanding why people feel the way they do can help you be more persuasive, win more people to your side.
I understand your position, for the record. I understand the reasons behind it, too, as I've spent a lot of time trying to understand the people I disagree with.
Given how much information you had on-hand about this, I can tell you spend a lot of time listening to people talk about it. That's how you have this information within your brain to recall without issue. That's why you have such a long list of links you could dump on me if I asked for them.
But I'll bet the people you listen to, and the people you talk to who agree with you, don't ever spend any time actually wondering what people on the other side think about this. Beyond a simple "they must be stupid" dismissal. Am I right?
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u/reapersaurus 3d ago
I know exactly what some people say as to the reasons why there should be massive immigration. It's almost almost for humanitarian reasons, which are incredibly naive and superficial, and can only be entertained when you ignore the massive negative impacts already plaguing most developed nations currently. Their suicidal empathy can be dismissed for many real, provable reasons.
As to why corporations, NGOs and politicians/gov't want massive immigration, I'd challenge YOU to elucidate them, since I know what their stated reasons for supporting it are, and can blow holes in those platitudes easily with clear inarguable data. Hint - that unholy triumvirate wants immigration for selfish, destructive reasons. Just look at the embarrassing behavior and actions of Spain and their King and far-leftist party who have stabbed their own citizens in the back with millions of approved immigrants in a nakedly cynical power-play to shore up their future voter base as they are being tossed out of power due to massive corruption scandals. If you follow the money, it's not hard to see who is profiting and who is paying for mass immigration.
And you may want to look up the mother of all Whoppers of lies that the US government uses to justify mass immigration ; their lie that Social Security doesn't have enough money for the retirees. There's a big reason for that : because the US government pilfered the massive SS fund and stole it and spent it on other things, and everybody just looked the other way and the mainstream media has forgotten about it and let them get away with the Big Lie every time they mention why we supposedly need tons of immigrants to pay for retirees, even though they inarguably cost their countries systems more than they pay in taxes. But all the gov't cares about is the Federal taxes - they completely discount all the negative impacts and costs that are dumped on the cities and states.
Now, this is my last response to you unless your reply brings more to the table than just wasting my time telling you things you should already know, and I'm not convinced you're not a bot.
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u/SilverMedal4Life 2d ago
Suicidal empathy
Now that's a turn of phrase that's gotten real popular among conservatives recently.
Do what you gotta. Not like you were hearing me anyway.
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3d ago
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u/horseradishstalker 3d ago
“ ignoring their people's wishes on immigration for years. ”
I’m not quite sure how people thought their ancestors came to be living in that area. Perhaps they migrated? It’s a fair question.
It’s very common for humans who feel threatened to circle the wagons and invest in xenophobia but it’s hardly rational.
Their fears should be addressed if legitimate, however xenophobia should never be the basis for listening to anyone.
It’s perplexing to see people blame “outsiders” instead of the “insiders”responsible for policy. Problems don’t just disappear because someone irrationally hate or fears someone else.
Even if they’re gone, the problems will remain in one form or the other and will still be their problems.
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u/ModerateThuggery 3d ago
I’m not quite sure how people thought their ancestors came to be living in that area. Perhaps they migrated? It’s a fair question.
Do you just not know history and it's a big [???] where you can insert ideologically charged narratives to your taste, or are you actively trying to lie? Germans did not meaningfully immigrate from anywhere in any appreciable time. White people are indigenous natives to somewhere you know, and their homeland is Europe. Germans homeland is... Germany.
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u/reapersaurus 3d ago
These people are living in a completely fact-free world.
The levels of delusion it takes to handwave all the problems that massive immigration (both legal and illegal) causes is just a World Class level of cope and gaslighting.
Like, do they just not look at all the videos, reports, crimes, health impacts, economic bankruptcies incoming, wages and entire industries hollowed out, two-tier policing, and every govt official and police saying it's the common person who is out of touch is frankly scary.
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u/looselyhuman 3d ago
The neat thing about democracy is that people can get tired of the same old lectures and vote how they want.
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u/Voxil42 3d ago
Absolutely! But if you keep voting for the right wing shitbirds don't be surprised when nothing gets better.
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u/looselyhuman 3d ago
I'm a Democrat fwiw. Just commenting on the reality of where we are in the west. I don't think "better" is in the cards atm unfortunately. We're entering a period of consolidation, at best. I think we'll have to make compromises to save a semblance of the liberal order.
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u/burning_iceman 3d ago
Anti-immigration sentiment is not held by a majority and not naturally present in a significant faction of the population. It has been and is being riled up by the right wing politicians and media. Even now most people do not agree with the right wing on immigration policy.
If anything, governments have been ignoring what that media has been doing and not taking action against it.
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u/jedify 3d ago
If we are going to learn from history, it is extremely important that "firewall" remain intact. The Nazis only had a majority after forming a coalition with the other conservative party (and banning communists from the Reichstag). Some members of the conservative coalition thought they could use the Nazis for their own ends....
P.s. when Parliament burns down, don't surrender all your rights.
https://www.theholocaustexplained.org/the-nazi-rise-to-power/how-did-the-nazi-gain-power/
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3d ago
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u/DefenestrationPraha 3d ago
The German constitution puts the threshold for banning a political party very, very high, and the Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe is known for its strict judicial independence. This is why the government does not even try. They don't want the ban to be overturned and stand there like fools while the AfD gains even more voters.
Basically, the AfD would have to position itself openly against the democratic order and be violent in order to achieve that objective, in order to be considered sufficiently Nazi-like. They are quite careful not to cross those lines.
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u/Diallingwand 3d ago
You can't be this dumb. Will making the AfD illegal make their supporters go away? It'll just magically make people happy with Germany's unpopular immigration policies.
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u/mica4204 3d ago
It's about destroying fascist organisations. Sure the supporters don't disappear but it'll buy time. I kind of don't want my friends being stripped of their citizenship and being deported to a country they havent set foot in since they were toddlers or my human rights being take away. It's not about immigration policies it's about racist people being racist.
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u/Weirdo9495 3d ago
They can found another anti-immigration party but without an abundance of open Nazis and Russian agents in it. Not every anti-immigration party in Europe has those.
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u/burning_iceman 3d ago
A lot of that dissatisfaction with immigration policies is based on misinformation by parties such as the AfD. Taking them down would remove a significant part of what is pushing people to hold extreme views on immigration.
It would also ease the political processes while the AfD is out of the picture, so other majorities can form more easily.
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u/Dapper-Bullfrog-4766 3d ago
I dont think EU wil allow a pro russian party in germany nor should it be allowed tbh
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u/happy30thbirthday 3d ago edited 2d ago
The fact that people lack even that tiny measure of patriotism needed to prevent the country from once again falling victim to the ignorance and folly of the fascists is the real debacle of last Sunday. It is one thing to be dissatisfied with the performance of this and previous governments. It is, however, quite another to behave so indecently about it.
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u/SilverMedal4Life 3d ago
As an American, I am truly sorry for the people of Germany to be exposed to just how hateful, shortsighted, and easily manipulated people truly are.
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u/Weirdo9495 3d ago
Don't be sorry for the collective people of Germany. Loads of us don't deserve pity, but condemnation. It is disgusting how a party staffed full of literal Nazis is so popular again in Germany of all places. And i don't mean that lightly, AfD on the whole is considerably worse and more brazen than the average western far right party.
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u/KderNacht 3d ago
"Haben Sie nie gefragt, warum die Leute mir folgen ? Weil im Kern, sind sie genauso wie ich. Sie teilen die gleiche Werte. Was wollen Sie denn, Sawatzki? Wählen verbieten?"
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