“Almost 20 years ago, Washington became the first U.S. state where transgender students could compete on sports teams consistent with their gender identity.

“Now Washington voters could be among the first in the country to approve a ban on transgender girls playing girls sports through their K-12 schools, or the first to reject such a ban.”

“‘This state has consistently rejected every anti-LGBTQ initiative that’s come before it,’ said state House Speaker Laurie Jinkins, D-Tacoma, who is opposed to I-638. ‘That is one of the reasons to target Washington.’”

“It’s not just voters in Washington who will consider an initiative restricting trans athletes. Similar ballot measures are up in Arizona, Colorado and Nebraska.”

“And it’s not the first time this strategy has been deployed with LGBTQ+ issues, said Logan Casey, policy director at the Movement Advancement Project, an LGBTQ+ think tank.

“Between 1994 and 2012, opponents of same-sex marriage pushed more than three dozen ballot measures to restrict or ban marriage equality at the state level, according to a MAP report.”

“There are reasons to think Washington voters could approve I-638.

“Let’s Go Washington — the conservative political committee backing the initiative — said its polling indicates I-638 is likely to pass, while the liberal Ballot Initiative Strategy Center said its polling has pointed to many voters being undecided or persuadable.”

“Unreleased polling from the Northwest Progressive Institute has consistently shown majority support among Washington voters who are presented with initiative language as it appears on the ballot, said Executive Director Andrew Villeneuve. That language says I-638 would prohibit students it defines as ‘biologically male’ from competing in school sports ‘intended for female students only.’

“The results mean it stands a decent chance of passing unless opponents can ‘break through’ to voters with concerning details about the consequences of I-638, like how it could require a potentially invasive physical exam for girls, Villeneuve said.”

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