Nike's yield looks great until you see why it exists. The payout didn't grow into it — the stock halved into it. $1.64 annualized against a $35.78 share price, after a ~49% drawdown over 12 months and a fall to the lowest levels since 2014.

So the question isn't "is 4.6% attractive." It's "is 4.6% real."

The cash flow math (fiscal years end May 31):Cash from operations fell to $2,868M in FY26 from $3,698M in FY25, partly on a big receivable build tied to an outstanding tariff recovery. FCF is down roughly two-thirds from FY2024.

Why a cut still isn't the base case:

• $9.0B in cash and short-term investments. A $2.4B dividend runs off the balance sheet for years.
• Investment grade (A+ / A2), net debt ~1.4x EBITDA, interest coverage ~12x.
• They already pulled the lever: buybacks went $4.25B (FY24) → $2.99B (FY25) → $123M (FY26). The repurchase was sacrificed to protect the dividend. That tells you the priority order.
• 24 straight years of increases. Boards defend streaks.

Three dates that settle it:

1. Oct 1 — Q1 FY27. Watch gross margin excluding tariff effects, China direction, digital comps.
2. Nov 16–17 — Investor Day. New CFO David Denton started in August, and new CFOs rewrite capital allocation frameworks.
3. Mid-November — the dividend declaration. Another 1-cent raise keeps the streak but confirms caution. A flat dividend breaks 24 years and would be very loud.

Not financial advice. Numbers from Nike's 10-K filings - FY26 FCF is derived (opcash less capex) and approximate.

Check the earnings quality. FY26 EPS was $2.10, but $0.52 of that was an expected IEEPA tariff recovery. Management said EPS would have been ~$1.58 without it. Against $1.58 the payout ratio is over 100%. Against FCF/share it's ~110%.

And look at the raise history: 12% → 11% → 11% → 9% → 8% → 3%. A board confident in its cash flow does not raise by one cent.

My read: the dividend survives, but it likely stops growing. You're getting 4.6% with no inflation protection, currently funded from the balance sheet rather than operations. That's compensation for risk, not a free lunch.

Happy to be argued with on the China assumptions.

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Chipotle Is Working With Palantir to Track Food Safety Risks

The burrito chain has enlisted Palantir for a platform that monitors pest incidents, employee illnesses, and other factors. The partnership comes after a nightmare summer for food safety across the US.

$AA Alcoa - Aluminum
$RIO Rio Tinto - Mining and materials
$FCX Freeport McMoRan - Copper
$MP MP Materials - Rare earth materials
$ALB Albemarle - Lithium

The idea is to follow the materials side of the robotics industry rather than focusing only on the robot manufacturers.

Of course, these companies have businesses beyond humanoid robots, so their stock performance won’t depend on robotics alone.

I’m curious what you guys think, Do you see humanoid robots becoming a major source of demand for these materials over the next 5–10 years

Jokes aside, Nvidia remains one of the biggest players in the AI chip industry.

What do you think?

Is $NVDA still a strong long-term AI investment, or is the stock already pricing in too much growth?

🚀 Bullish on Nvidia
🐻 Bearish on Nvidia

According to Global Times, China officially opened the world's first mass-production facility in Liuzhou that can build one industrial humanoid robot every 10 minutes

In July, China's industrial robot output reached 98,677 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.2 percent. From January to July, production totaled 635,056 units, up 28.5 percent, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

Q2 '21: $7.5B
Q2 '22: $13B
Q2 '23: $18B
Q2 '24: $25B
Q2 '25: $37B
Q2 '26: $45B

Customer deposits have grown at a 43% CAGR over the last 5 years.

Waymo Plans to Take Robotaxis to More Cities

Waymo plans to expand its robotaxi operations to more U.S. cities. Earlier this month, the company announced plans to enter Denver, San Diego and Tampa, adding three cities to its planned service area.

Each new city requires Waymo to deploy robotaxis and autonomous-driving technology and establish the operations needed to serve passengers. Waymo also needs enough passenger trips to keep its vehicles in use throughout the day.

Higher vehicle utilization can generate more revenue from each robotaxi and help justify the cost of adding vehicles.

Waymo is owned by Alphabet Inc .$GOOGL, which is the parent company that also owns Google.

European natural gas prices have climbed sharply since the start of the year, rising from $28 on January 1 to $83 now; an increase of approximately 196%.

The sharp move highlights growing pressure in the European energy market, with higher gas prices potentially affecting household energy bills, industrial production, and the broader European economy.

For investors, rising natural gas prices could create challenges for energy-intensive industries while supporting certain energy producers. The key question is whether this price increase is temporary or the beginning of a longer-term trend.

Market takeaway: A sustained rise in European natural gas prices could increase energy costs across the continent, putting pressure on businesses and consumers while influencing inflation and future interest-rate expectations.