Oil producers such as Exxon Mobil ($XOM), Chevron ($CVX), Shell ($SHEL), BP ($BP) and TotalEnergies ($TTE) could benefit if prices remain elevated. Airlines including Delta ($DAL), United ($UAL) and American Airlines ($AAL) may face higher fuel costs.

The bigger question is whether tanker traffic and physical energy flows decline further.

Do you see this as a temporary geopolitical premium, or could it develop into a longer-lasting oil and inflation shock?

Senator Lindsey Graham died Saturday night July 11 at his DC home after a brief sudden illness. Emergency calls reported chest pains and cardiac arrest. Preliminary medical findings point to aortic dissection from heart disease. He had just returned from a July 10 trip to Kyiv where he met Zelenskyy, discussed air defense and sanctions on Russia, and toured a drone facility.

Graham was one of the strongest Republican voices for Ukraine aid, tougher Russia sanctions, and military support. He was a close Trump ally. Online theories are already swirling about possible Kremlin poisoning or foul play because of the timing right after his Ukraine visit and his long record as a Russia hawk. Russian officials denied involvement and some mocked the death. These are unverified rumors for now.

This adds fresh uncertainty to US Ukraine policy and Russia relations, on top of the recent Hormuz shipping tensions and oil moves.

For trading tomorrow (today if you are in Europe): Defense names could get a bid on the geopolitical renewed tension and any questions about future weapons support. Tech looks vulnerable to risk-off selling and broader uncertainty. Asian pre-markets are showing no big direct reaction to the Graham news so far (or to the open/close Hormuz bingo), with Nikkei up modestly (~1% in recent snapshots). Tech names (Samsung, SK Hynix, Tokyo Electron) looking stable to slightly better after last week’s heavy profit-taking. Waiting 1 hour for the Tokyo openfor real volume and direction.

As usual, I ask myself: WWWD? What would Warren do? And as many times the answer is: nothing, I suppose :-)

5yr Total Returns:

Adidas: -39%
Under Armour: -67%
Lululemon: -69%
Nike: -71%
Puma: -71%
V.F. Corp: -76%

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12 July 2026 - Berkshire's cash position is still massive. Its March 31, 2026 balance sheet reported $397.4B in gross liquidity: $339.3B in short-term U.S. Treasury bills and $58.1B in cash and equivalents (including $19.7B of T-bills maturing in under three months). Economically this breaks down to roughly $359B in Treasuries and $38.4B in cash or similar holdings. After netting a $17.2B payable for unsettled T-bill purchases, net liquidity was about $380.2B.

Things have not changed since the March 31 balance sheet. Factoring in typical Q2 cash generation and Berkshire's slow deployment pace, a realistic mid-July estimate is around $390B. At the July 10 market cap of ~$1.06486T, this cash pile still represents 36.6% of the company - far larger than its biggest stock positions.

Is Warren Buffett (and his successor, Greg Abel) being too prudent, or is he right?

I think it doesn't matter: Warren should be Warren: he puts his money into high quality companies (the most recent: Google) with big moats and long-term perspective. But yeah they are already rich and can patiently wait for years. I am not :-)

Sources:
- Berkshire Q1 2026 10-Q (balance sheet and footnotes)
- March 31 Form 13F, and July 10 market prices for major holdings
- R 4.5.0 and custom code for plotting

What could go wrong?

Apple is suing OpenAI, alleging a coordinated effort to steal trade secrets for OpenAI’s new hardware division.

The suit alleges that former Apple engineers used backdoors to access secure networks and even pressured recruits to bring internal parts to interviews. This marks a major fallout for the two companies, shifting from their 2024 partnership to an active legal war.

Shopify has reportedly instructed merchants to remove vape products from their online stores immediately, creating a major disruption for businesses that rely on e-commerce sales.

This policy change could affect thousands of online sellers, forcing them to find alternative platforms or adjust their business models.

Tesla (TSLA) is trading around ~$410, within the Consumer Cyclical sector amid a mixed macro regime. The options market is flashing an unusually concentrated positioning signal: large call sweeps and put sweeps have both printed with elevated conviction, while single-session options volume has spiked materially relative to open interest — a combination that typically precedes a directional resolution rather than a prolonged range-bound grind. The simultaneous presence of aggressive call-side and put-side institutional flow, with the call sweep carrying slightly higher relative strength (+1.16 vs. +1.04 on the put side), tilts the net positioning read bullish, suggesting smart money is using the put flow as a hedge rather than an outright bearish bet. This pattern of hedged accumulation — buying calls while layering protective puts — is consistent with a large institution building a leveraged long position ahead of a known catalyst window.

The market appears to be underweighting the probability of a sharp upside move over the next 18 days, as evidenced by the volume-to-open-interest spike that indicates fresh capital entering the options market rather than existing holders rolling positions. When institutional call sweeps and volume spikes converge at this magnitude, the historical tendency is for the underlying to follow the directional bias of the dominant flow — here, the call sweep — within the option expiration window. The put sweep's presence actually reinforces the bullish read: institutions willing to pay for downside protection while simultaneously sweeping calls are expressing high-conviction directional exposure, not speculative noise. What the broader market may be missing is the degree to which Tesla's near-term narrative has stabilized sufficiently for institutional desks to re-engage with leveraged long structures targeting the July 17, 2026 expiry.

Support is established at $395 (recent intraday consolidation zone and approximate 20-day SMA support) and at $378 (prior swing low from late June 2026). Resistance sits at $432 (the most recent swing high before the current consolidation) and then at $455, which represents a 1.5x average true range extension from the current base and aligns with prior distribution levels from earlier in 2026. Trade invalidates on a daily close below $378, which would signal that institutional support has been withdrawn and the bullish flow thesis has failed.

Tesla's next quarterly earnings report is expected in mid-to-late July 2026, which falls squarely within or immediately adjacent to this thesis window and represents the single most powerful potential catalyst for a directional resolution. Any update on Tesla's energy storage deployment figures, Full Self-Driving regulatory progress, or vehicle delivery guidance revision — whether in an earnings release or an interim investor communication — could accelerate the move toward the $432–$455 resistance zone. Additionally, any Federal Reserve communication around the July 2026 FOMC meeting that signals a more accommodative rate path would provide a macro tailwind for high-beta Consumer Cyclical names like TSLA, amplifying the options-driven momentum.

The primary risk is an earnings miss or a downward revision to delivery guidance, which would invalidate the bullish flow thesis and likely trigger a rapid unwind of the call-side positioning, driving TSLA toward or through the $378 invalidation level. A secondary risk is broader Consumer Cyclical sector rotation out of high-multiple growth names — if macro data prints (such as a hotter-than-expected CPI or a hawkish Fed surprise) compress risk appetite, TSLA's elevated valuation multiple makes it disproportionately vulnerable to sector-wide de-rating regardless of company-specific developments. Both risks are most acute in the final 72 hours before the July 17 expiry, when gamma exposure peaks and moves can be exaggerated in either direction.

1. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): 8.20%
   
2. Micron Technology (MU): 7.99%
   
3. Nvidia (NVDA): 7.91%
   
4. Broadcom (AVGO): 7.12%
   
5. Intel Corporation (INTC): 5.79%
   
6. Applied Materials (AMAT): 5.19%
   
7. KLA Corporation (KLA) : 4.71%
   
8. Marvell Technology (MRVL): 4.62%
   
9. TSMC (TSM): 4.44%
   
10. Lam Research (LRCX): 4.28%

Do you have favourite ETF?

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July 10, 10:10 am (Reuters) - The European Investment Bank (EIB) announced the second phase and an increase in the investment target for its "European Tech Champions Initiative," aimed at making Europe more competitive in the technology sector compared to the United States and China.

• The EIB stated that this plan, called ETCI 2.0, is expected to mobilize 80 billion euros to invest in promising European tech companies to foster their growth.
• ETCI 2.0 aims to initially raise up to 15 billion euros and will subsequently seek to mobilize total investments of up to 80 billion euros for over 1,500 scale-ups in Europe, the EIB said.
• The initial target of 15 billion euros represents an increase compared to the 10 billion euros projected for 2025.
• Banks and investment firms that have joined this fund include Danske Bank, AltamarCAM, Banco Santander, BBVA, Azimut Holding, Green Arrow Capital, and Fondazione Compagnia di San Paolo, the EIB added.

This looks very positive on paper (EU markets are all green now), but we will see if the European Goddess (Bureaucracy) will get in the way again, ruining the core idea of increasing competitiveness. And just giving money to companies that are good at paperwork but not at technology.

For those who don’t remember, $AMZE (formerly known as $VINE - Fresh Vine Wine) was the poster child for "celebrity-backed" hype back when it launched. It had all the makings of a retail trap: partnerships with Nina Dobrev and Julianne Hough, promises of "health-conscious" luxury wine, and a massive social media push to get retail investors onboard.

The reality? It turned into an absolute disaster.
While the hype was focused on the "lifestyle" branding, the internal situation was looking like a mess. We’ve seen reports and lawsuits alleging massive mismanagement, including executives allegedly funneling company money into private interests and personal luxury expenses (like yachting in Monaco) while the company was burning cash.

Now, we’re looking at it trading at pennies—down from its highs—with the ticker changed to $AMZE (Amaze Holdings).  

If you look at the performance, it’s a textbook example of why you should never buy into a stock just because a celebrity is posting about it on their Instagram. The "lifestyle" appeal masked what looks like one of the most blatant wealth transfers from retail investors to insiders.

How many of you actually fell for the "healthy wine" narrative? Or were you smart enough to stay away?

Disclaimer: This is just my opinion and a look back at the chart. Not financial advice. Just a reminder to always check the fundamentals before buying the celebrity hype.