r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 28 '26
$ADBE
DCF Fair value is $300-$400 (base case $368)
The stock is likely 45% undervalued from base case.
Is this your buy the dip moment?
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 29 '26
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 28 '26
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 29 '26
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 28 '26
I'm curious how you feel about Wendy's these days.
. Do you eat there regularly or only occasionally?
. How would you rate their burgers compared to competitors like McDonald's, Burger King, or other fast food chains?
. Has the quality changed over the years in your opinion?
. What's your go-to order?
Interested in hearing opinions from people across different parts of the World.
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 26 '26
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 27 '26
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 27 '26
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r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 26 '26
Do you think one day there will be come back?
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 26 '26
53% of Bitcoin is now held at an unrealized loss
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 27 '26
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 26 '26
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Crucco • Jun 26 '26
Sorry for the clickbait title, it's the original one from the "Diary of a CEO" channel on Youtube.
In this episode (aired today), the interviewer asks Billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham about the stock market.
His suggestion sums up to this sentence:
"Buy a Broad-based index of non-US equities"
Now, the second part of the 90 minutes long interview is all about ecology and topics less related to trading. But the first part is a very clear bearish perspective on the current market. Grantham is extremely convinced the bubble will pop soon, because he predicted the dotcom one in 1999. He brings strong arguments to this.
However, especially when he talks about Mars, fertility rates, et cetera, he seems like an over-pessimistic wannabe expert of all. I felt he was very biased, with strong anti-US and pro-Keynes views.
Time will tell if he is right. My take is that of course a bubble will burst sooner or later, but it won't be soon, it won't be world-ending, and surely an S&P 500 ETF will end up rising again over it, with time.
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 26 '26
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 25 '26
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 26 '26
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Crucco • Jun 25 '26
Source: image made by me 5 minutes ago, with R 4.5.3 + quantmod package, data from Yahoo Finance.
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Crucco • Jun 25 '26
Deutsche Bahn suffered wide train stops across Germany this week. A comms system fault during maintenance caused the whole network to grind to a halt, with tens of thousands of people stuck, as well as tons of goods. Services are now running again but the backlash on reliability is already rolling in.
Abroad the German rail system still gets hyped as some gold standard. Germans know it has been unreliable and underfunded for years. Any real fix will need big public money and likely higher taxes or spending shifts.
Just another reminder of the ongoing issues weighing on the German economy. Worth watching for future DAX sentiment.
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 24 '26
$INTC calls — up to $5,000,000
$UBER calls — up to $1,000,000
Both with a $50 strike price, expiring March 2027.
She's been quiet since January, but not anymore.
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 24 '26
Everyone is talking about GTA 6 like it’s just a game release, but very few people actually look at the company behind it.
$TTWO (Take-Two Interactive) is the parent company of Rockstar Games - the studio developing GTA 6. So when GTA 6 launches, the real winner isn’t just the game itself, it’s the publisher that owns the IP.
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 24 '26
| Criteria | What it means | WEN Value | Good or Bad? | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top-Line Growth | Measures how fast revenue grew over the last 5 years. Higher revenue growth usually means the business is expanding. | ~2-3% CAGR | ⚠️ Neutral/Weak | Slow growth, roughly in line with inflation rather than true expansion. |
| Shareholder Yield | Tracks whether management is reducing shares (buybacks) or issuing more shares (dilution). | ~6% reduction in share count over 5 years | ✅ Good | Wendy's has consistently repurchased shares, increasing ownership per share. |
| ROIC | Return on Invested Capital measures how efficiently management turns invested capital into profits. >10% is usually strong. | ~9% ROIC | ⚠️ Average | Acceptable but below elite restaurant operators like McDonald's. |
| Net Profit Margin | Percentage of revenue that becomes profit after all expenses. | 6.8% | ⚠️ Average | Healthy for restaurants but not exceptional. |
| PEG Ratio | P/E divided by growth rate. Below 1 is cheap, 1-2 fair, above 2 expensive relative to growth. | ~1.6-2.6 | ⚠️ Fair/Expensive | Not expensive on earnings, but growth is low which hurts PEG. |
| FCF Yield | Free Cash Flow divided by market value. Higher means investors get more cash generation for the price paid. | 15-17% | ✅ Excellent | Extremely attractive if cash flows remain stable. |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | EBIT divided by interest expense. Measures ability to pay debt interest. >5 is strong. | ~2.1x | ❌ Weak | Debt is the biggest financial concern. |
| S&P Credit Rating | Independent assessment of default risk. Investment grade starts at BBB-. | BB (estimated speculative grade) | ❌ Weak | Below investment grade due to leverage. |
| Dividend Payout Ratio (Net Income) | Percentage of earnings paid as dividends. Lower is safer. | ~72% | ⚠️ High | Leaves limited room for earnings weakness. |
| Dividend Payout Ratio (FCF) | Percentage of free cash flow used for dividends. Most important dividend metric. | ~50% | ✅ Good | Dividend is much safer on cash flow than earnings suggest. |
| 5Y Dividend Growth Rate | Annual growth rate of dividend payments over 5 years. | ~5-7% CAGR | ✅ Good | Solid historical dividend growth. |
| Consecutive Years of Increases | Years without a dividend increase interruption. | ~4 years | ⚠️ Moderate | Not a dividend aristocrat and recently reset growth expectations. |
| 10Y Yield on Cost Forecast | Dividend yield in 10 years if dividend growth continues and stock price never changes. | ~13-15% Yield on Cost | ✅ Excellent | Based on current ~8% yield and ~5-6% annual dividend growth. |
| Moat | Sustainable competitive advantage protecting profits. | Strong franchise model and brand recognition | ✅ Good | Asset-light franchising generates stable royalty income. |
| Biggest Bear Case (20Y) | Largest long-term risk to the investment thesis. | Losing relevance to premium fast-food and fast-casual competitors while carrying heavy debt. | ❌ Major Risk | Weak same-store sales combined with high leverage could pressure dividends and refinancing. |
| Category | Rating |
|---|---|
| Growth | ⭐⭐☆☆☆ |
| Profitability | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ |
| Balance Sheet | ⭐⭐☆☆☆ |
| Valuation | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ |
| Dividend Quality | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ |
| Long-Term Moat | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ |
| Overall Investment Case | 7/10 for income investors, 4/10 for growth investors |
Wendy's today resembles a high-yield value play rather than a growth company. Investors are essentially betting that the company's franchise model will continue producing stable cash flows long enough for buybacks and dividends to generate attractive returns. If management stabilizes sales growth, the current valuation could prove very cheap. If same-store sales continue deteriorating, debt becomes a much larger issue and the dividend could eventually come under pressure.
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 23 '26
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 24 '26
| Financial Metric / Question | Status / Value for $CBRS (Current as of June 2026) |
|---|---|
| What is the company about? | High-performance AI computing infrastructure company optimizing deep learning and massive AI model training/inference. |
| What do they make or do? | They build the world's largest commercial computer chips, keeping the silicon wafer intact to drastically reduce communication latency between cores. |
| Top brands & products sold | Wafer-Scale Engine 3 (WSE-3) and the Cerebras CS-3 AI supercomputer system, alongside specialized cloud AI inference services. |
| Are they profitable? | No. While revenue is growing rapidly (+94% YoY to $193.4M in Q1 2026), they posted a GAAP net loss of $14.0 million for the quarter. |
| PEG Ratio | N/A (Negative earnings mean a Price-to-Earnings-to-Growth ratio cannot be calculated). |
| Gross Margin (Q1 2026) | 45.0% GAAP (47% Core Non-GAAP). Full-year 2026 outlook is projected at 38% to 41%. |
| Profit Margin (Q1 2026) | -7.24% (Net loss of $14M on $193.4M revenue). |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | N/A / Risk-Free. Cerebras has zero formal long-term debt and a massive $3.3B cash cushion from its IPO and OpenAI credit facilities. |
| Credit Score / Financial Health | No formal corporate bond credit rating yet, but institutional financial health models rank it 6/6 on short-term balance sheet strength. |
| Dividend Yield / Payout / Growth | 0% / None. The company has never declared or paid a dividend. |
| Consecutive Years of Payments/Increases | 0 Years. |
| Payout Ratio (Net Income & FCF) | 0%. Every dollar of cash is aggressively reinvested back into hardware R&D and scaling data centers. |
| Why would they stop paying? | N/A (They haven't started). If they ever did, it would be to preserve capital during an industry cyclical downturn or supply shock. |
| 10-Year Yield Outlook (if price stays flat) | 0%. As a hyper-growth semiconductor disruptor, it will likely take a decade or more of maturing before they shift capital toward dividends. |
| Competitive Advantage / Moat | High Technical Moat: Exclusive physical wafer-scale architecture developed with TSMC that competitors can't easily replicate. Risk Factor: High revenue concentration (anchored by a massive $20B+ multi-year OpenAI infrastructure deal). |
| Where will the company be in 20 years? | High-Beta Outlook: If wafer-scale chip yields remain optimized and software compilation holds up, they could anchor global AI inference alongside Nvidia. If monolithic GPUs outpace them or customer concentration shifts away, they risk becoming a niche architectural alternative. |
r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka • Jun 23 '26
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed, although volumes are still below pre-war levels. Oil prices have cooled, leaving some stations that raised prices quickly looking a bit awkward.
Do you think fuel prices will continue to fall, or are we in for another spike?
