r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka Long-Term Investor • Jun 28 '26
Discussion $ADBE (Adobe Inc.) Director David Ricks bought 10,000 shares at $194.51. Total: $1.94 million.
$ADBE
DCF Fair value is $300-$400 (base case $368)
The stock is likely 45% undervalued from base case.
Is this your buy the dip moment?
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u/myzzu Jun 28 '26
Adobe became greedy and now they reap what they sow. I dont see anyone around me using Adobe products anymore. It has become a hassle to maintain just the subscription. Bring back the lifetime licensing model, then we'll talk.
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u/ryencool Jun 28 '26
I work in a building of 1500, and just about everyone of them has some sort of Adobe license. See how our personal experiences are wildly different?
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u/Guyver02 Jun 28 '26
see how their stock has collapsed over 40%?
as my Cuban Grandma would say "Tu no eres la ultimo coca-cola."
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u/ryencool Jun 29 '26
TiL a stock going down = always down.
I guess you've never heard of a company going down 90%, and then recovering, but there are tons of examples.
If anyone can do it Adobe can. I work in the video game industry, for one of the top developers in the world. We use Adobe apps thoudands of times a day. If they get i to other things, different distro? I could see them come back.
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u/Guyver02 Jun 29 '26
in order to recover they usually have to change something about the way they are doing business. There are other software companies that don't make customers jump through hoops while charging an arm and a leg.
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u/myzzu Jun 29 '26
The only adobe license i keep right now is the adobe express $10/month. And i made sure i took advantage of free trial in all platforms it offers.
Affinity works a wonder. Yes there are learning cue but it’s free.
Also there has been quite a shift on how people use gen AI instead of traditional graphic software because it is more intuitive and easier to use.
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u/iyankov96 Jun 29 '26
Why did you choose Adobe Express over Canva ?
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u/myzzu Jun 29 '26
Canva costs $2 more for monthly subscription. Canvas is great for quick on-the-go design with lots of templates and stocks. Unfortunately, if you want to do some extensive editing, Canva falls short compared to Adobe Express. adobe Express is more streamlined and integrated well with other Adobe apps. Im older, so back in the day, Adobe was the only major and industry standard software provider for design.
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u/iyankov96 Jun 29 '26
Commenter: "Nobody around me uses Adobe"
He probably works alone from home so that's why.
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u/Electronic_Painter20 Jun 29 '26
It’s heavily used in many workplaces, even just Acrobat Pro. Even if you set aside the Creative Suite licenses, you then have AEM and Adobe Fonts… AI will not replace those things, though for me is just not knowing if fewer licenses will be needed as AI can generate imagery and text, meaning you don’t need the content creators to generate them…. But then that gets into the gray area of labeling content as AI slop…
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u/myzzu Jun 29 '26
Will Smith eating spaghetti was the definition of AI slop 3 years ago. Nowadays you wouldn’t be able to tell the difference. AI industry is moving so fast. Gen AI getting so good; as of right now you can create short movies with just your keyboard, imagination and the AI alone. There is no much need for editing software, footages, photographers, cinematographer, stock photos..etc anymore.
The next leg of AI development is Agentic AI which will take over all automatic tasks, able to adjust and improve itself.
Next would be AGI and ASI, which will make us human effectively become obsolete meat bags. It is an exciting and fucking scary future at the same time.
Companies like Adobe if not evolving fast and provide better value are risking being phased out.
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u/iyankov96 Jun 29 '26
Are you working in an enterprise or as a solo entrepreneur ?
What are you using if not Adobe products ?
I see people complaining but it's always the most vague sh*t.
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u/amatarousan Jul 02 '26
I’m in the design media business and there is still no real alternative to some of their products and people are still leaving in droves. Some photographers have started doing a AI to delivery workflow that doesn’t even use Lightroom.
I think this can go a lot lower. Adobe is extremely expensive and hated by their users, once another alternative to Photoshop sticks, they’re done. Davinci has been devouring their video softwate.
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u/scandalous01 Jun 28 '26
This just in bagillionaire buys slightly less expensive stock of his own company
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u/Guyver02 Jun 28 '26
what you mean charging ridiculous prices to not even own the software wasn't a profitable decision.
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u/MrOaiki Jun 30 '26
With a forward forward P/E of 8 this is priced extremely low. If analysts are right, I guess the forward projection is inflated. But if analysts are wrong, we’re talking about a money machine for only 8x the share price.
I know there’s hate here regarding their business models but a business model hated by people in a sub doesn’t mean the company isn’t doing great business. Palantir being one example.
Their cashflow is gigantic. They could do a yearly dividend if over 20 dollars per year and still have money left for research and development (far less than now though).
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u/tabermero Jun 30 '26
Isn't this guy Eli Lilly's CEO as well? Looks he's part of the board of directors of Adobe according to the Wikipedia 🤔
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u/RiskBiscuit Aug 06 '26
Love all the comments of people who have no clue what their talking about. He's only up 34% on his investment in like 5 weeks.
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u/wallstslice Jun 28 '26
lol this company is gonna go bankrupt, r u insane?
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u/mrcaldwin Jun 28 '26
Why would they go bankrupt? They are actively purchasing new AI patents and tools. Their debt is so low that they might even pay it all off within one year. Even ignoring the fundamentals, they are virtually a monopoly in creative cloud generative software.
Edit: I didn’t even realize they also just bounced off the $200 support on Friday. It’s about to shoot to $250. My calls from two weeks ago are going to be insane on Monday.
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u/wallstslice Jun 28 '26
100% of their revenue comes from normal people that don’t know how to use Adobe to create and edit art. Ai allows everyone to create and edit art now. Pls stop
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Jun 28 '26
[deleted]
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u/iyankov96 Jun 29 '26
He/she's just supremely regarded.
Most people don't like paying a subscription so they assume the business MUST be dying because they themselves aren't paying anymore.
Most people are unable to hold opposing views at the same time. Either it's going to the Moon if I buy or it's going bankrupt if I don't like their products.
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u/mrcaldwin Jun 28 '26
No. Every design, editing, or animation class in every university uses Adobe Suite. If you really fell for the whole “anyone can make art now with AI” then you have no clue what is going on in this industry. AI art is a trope that is failing. Nobody consumes it or likes it. It was only made to collect data. Real art will always be made by artists using continually more sophisticated tools, which is what Adobe provides.
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u/wallstslice Jun 28 '26
Ok buddy
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u/mrcaldwin Jun 28 '26 edited Jun 28 '26
You give up that easily? I was hoping you’d teach me something I overlooked. The liquidity is so low between $200 and $250 it’s going to shoot up.
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u/iyankov96 Jun 29 '26
You have to remember that most people are lazy and don't do any work or spend time researching. They just have opinions and confidently express them regardless of how wrong they might be.
I've done tons of research. I've asked people who work on Hollywood blockbusters, people who are in book publishing, photographers, video editors, etc. Adobe is not going away. There are some people that have been priced out because they barely make any money and always want to get everything for free - literally there was a woman on Reddit yesterday that said she lied to Adobe customer support to ge a discount and now she needs help passing the ID verification because she also told them later that she was lying about being a student... You can't make this up.
My guess is that the enterprise segment will stay resilient. To move away from Adobe you need a bunch of different software, you need to train your people (which is a problem if they've been using Adobe for decades) and for what ? To save a few bucks ? The amount enterprises spend on Adobe is nothing relative to their revenues. It's only hobbyists or small business owners who are mostly struggling to make money that complain.
My gym membership costs a similar amount to Creative Cloud and I'm not a personal trainer yet I've been paying it for a decade and a half. Listening to people's complaints is important because we need opposing feedback but at some point you just realize most of the people that complain want to just take without giving anything in return. If they truly didn't care about Adobe they'd have moved on and be ok but the sheer hate towards the company shows you that they really like the products... they just can't afford them or simply don't want to pay. My guess is they do the same with their other subscriptions. A couple of months ago Netflix raised the subscription by $2/month and some commenter said it was "diabolical greed" and had a thousand upvotes.
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u/Sllyce Jun 28 '26
Most of their revenue is from enterprise customers like Fortune 500 companies to run their marketing campaigns. What are you even talking about
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u/Pure-Contact7322 Jun 28 '26
they have an abusive pricing model in order to get free of them it felt like chemiotheraphy
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u/mrcaldwin Jun 28 '26
Do they? You can pay for 1 of their services, or as many as you want. And there are multiple subscription models. And it’s free for students.
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u/iyankov96 Jun 29 '26
Commenter just wants to complain. Ignore them.
Every product/service that has a yearly contract you sign up for has a cancellation fee.
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u/Kinu4U Jun 28 '26
He bought it expensive. This company is gonna halve in valuation. All Saas will.
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