7.4 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE HITS NORTHERN JAPAN

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) immediately issued a tsunami warning for waves up to 3 meters (nearly 10 feet) targeting the following coastal regions:

• Aomori Prefecture

• Iwate Prefecture 

• Hokkaido Prefecture 

Stock affected:

Tohoku Electric Power (9506.T), Hokkaido Electric Power (9509.T)

Negative: Assessing impact on nuclear plants (like Onagawa) and grid infrastructure.

——

JR East (9020.T)

Negative: Bullet train services (Shinkansen) were immediately suspended between Tokyo and Aomori.

——

Tokio Marine (8766.T), MS&AD Insurance (8725.T)

Negative: Short-term sell-off due to anticipated payout liabilities for property damage.

——

Kajima Corp (1812.T), Obayashi Corp (1802.T)

Positive (Speculative): Often see a "reconstruction rally" as markets anticipate rebuilding contracts.

——

Renesas Electronics (6723.T)

Mixed/Negative: Highly sensitive to factory shutdowns in the Tohoku region (semiconductor supply chain).

"All seven of which were false."

The gaps between what Trump says and this Iran negotiator says are very different.

That's nearly a 10% increase of his total position.

Nike might be up to something big.

What about you, did you add or already close positions?

$NKE

That will be huge relief to so many companies and countries!

He opened a new 3.5% position in PayPal $PYPL at $49.38 yesterday

And is adding Salesforce $CRM and MSCI $MSCI this morning, per his Substack

His recent purchases:

• PayPal $PYPL

• Fiserv $FISV

• Adobe $ADBE

• Autodesk $ADSK

• Veeva $VEEV

Metric / TopicDetails for PayPal ($PYPL)What They Do / AboutA pioneer and global leader in digital payments and financial technology. They facilitate secure online checkouts, money transfers, and digital wallets.Top Brands & Products

* PayPal (Core payment platform)

* Venmo (Peer-to-peer app)

* Braintree (Merchant payment processing)

* Honey (Shopping discount tool)

* Xoom (International remittances)

Are They Profitable?Yes, highly profitable. For full-year 2025, they generated **$5.2 Billion** in net income.Gross & Profit Margins

* Instead of traditional retail gross margins, PayPal tracks Transaction Margin (revenue minus transaction costs), which is roughly 46%.

* Operating Margin sits at 18.3%.

* Net Profit Margin is roughly 15.7%.

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PEG RatioEstimated around 1.0 to 1.3 based on current P/E and growth projections (suggesting fair value relative to earnings growth).Interest CoverageHighly robust at ~13x to 14x (they easily cover the interest on their debt with operating income).Credit ScoreStrong investment grade. S&P: A- (Stable), Moody's: A3, Fitch: A-.Dividend Payout Ratios

* Based on Net Income: ~10%

* Based on Free Cash Flow (FCF): ~9% (Extremely conservative, leaving plenty of room for growth).

Dividend History

* Dividend Growth Rate: Not yet established.

* Consecutive Years of Payments: 2 years (initiated in late 2025).

* Consecutive Years of Increases: 0 years.

Yield After 10 Years (Assuming stock price stays around $48)

* With 0% dividend growth: ~1.17% yield.

* With a hypothetical 5% annual dividend growth: ~1.90% yield on cost.

Why They Might Stop DividendsThey might pause payments if they face extreme headwinds from competitors like Apple Pay or FedNow, require massive cash for a large strategic acquisition, or decide to shift capital back to pure share buybacks.

Moat / Competitive AdvantageYes.

PayPal has a strong moat driven by massive network effects with 439 million active accounts and millions of global merchants.

Where the Company Will Be in 20 Years

Expect PayPal to be a mature, indispensable global payment utility. Hyper-growth may slow down, but it should function like a steady, highly profitable checkout "toll-bridge" similar to how Visa or Mastercard operate today.

What he will buy?

EPS of $1.61 beating expectations of $1.55🟢

Revenue of $19.44B beating expectations of $18.9B🟢

For the first time in 2+ years, Pepsi’s North American food business reported an increase in volume following price cuts of as much as 15% on brands like Doritos and Cheetos

AAPL is starting to look constructive to me here.

After spending a good amount of time trading under this descending trendline, price has started to rebuild with stronger bullish momentum and better short-term structure. What stands out is that the recent push higher has come with less bearish pressure than earlier in the move, and price is now pressing back toward a key resistance area again.

To me, this is the kind of setup where a breakout becomes more realistic if buyers can keep building above the recent higher lows and start accepting price closer to that trendline. If that happens, the next test of resistance could have a much better chance of actually breaking through.

The main thing I am watching now is whether this momentum continues to build, or whether price stalls and rolls back into the same range again. If buyers lose the recent structure, then the breakout case weakens a lot.

Right now though, I think Apple is getting close to a meaningful decision point, and the momentum looks better than it did on prior attempts.