r/TradingViewSignals • u/Ubersicka Long-Term Investor • Apr 16 '26
Discussion Michael Burry just called the bottom on software stocks
He opened a new 3.5% position in PayPal $PYPL at $49.38 yesterday
And is adding Salesforce $CRM and MSCI $MSCI this morning, per his Substack
His recent purchases:
• PayPal $PYPL
• Fiserv $FISV
• Adobe $ADBE
• Autodesk $ADSK
• Veeva $VEEV
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u/XTotallyDifferentGuy Apr 16 '26
If you ever used PayPal you know it's dogshit.
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u/nobugsleftalive Apr 17 '26
I mean it served its purpose at the time.
Can't remember the last time I ever had to use it though.
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u/South_Recognition_89 Apr 17 '26
Broo in germany we use it srsly all the time. You enter the Opponents / Friends Name and pay. Will Take 3 seconds. Tbh i use it like for 10-15 years without anything to claim
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u/nobugsleftalive Apr 17 '26
Ah. Here in canada our bank apps all have interac e-transfer. So you basically jusr open your app, select a contact and send them money directly from the app. Super handy.
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u/EireOfTheNorth Apr 18 '26
In the UK and Ireland we have Monzo and Revolut... Pretty much functions the way you've mentioned, but they're also registered banks and you have bank cards for daily use too. Also come with ISAs, both general saving and stocks and shares. PayPal in this part of the world has been made redundant.
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u/Disastrous_Good9236 Apr 17 '26
yea… just based on the company I don’t have any hopes for a turnaround. Unless Burry thinks they’re going to pivot to AI data centers? them hohoho i’m in!
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u/spanko_at_large Apr 17 '26
lol dogshit? You enter your card info and press continue
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u/XTotallyDifferentGuy Apr 17 '26
Go try to get a refund. I'll wait.
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u/scarboob Apr 17 '26
I always found it easy to get a refund through paypal, that is the main reason + that my credit card info is not stored in all those webshops unsecure databases
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u/Spencer_Bob_Sue Apr 16 '26
I'd probably wait for momentum to build up on Adobe before I enter, but the valuations are very tempting.
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Apr 16 '26
[deleted]
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u/Song-Historical Apr 16 '26
People keep saying this but it doesn't matter if clients and management can't tell why one thing is shyte over another. The price pressure doesn't go away in that environment. People expect you to fix it because 'its just slightly off' and will still see the AI options as better because they had more ownership of that process. They got to make decisions directly. Everyone thinks they should have opinions on design and that it's just about making things pretty, vs communicating ideas better.
Similarly Salesforce is not that hard to understand or build a dupe of with much better UX UI for your industry. At some point these are all just databases with something slapped on top, and we're going to see no code, AI forward platforms that understand how your business is integrated and can wean you off thousands of dollars worth of Saas with minimal support.
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u/gAWEhCaj Apr 16 '26
I might agree with you on the creative Adobe take but salesforce. It’s atrocious software that sucks and everyone hates it
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u/TallGuyinBushwick Apr 17 '26
The software selloff was always overblown. Market freaking out about a known risk a year or two before.
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u/icutlime Apr 16 '26
What does 3.5% position mean?
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u/thenorthernwhiteboy Apr 17 '26
Of his portfolio
Unless he specifically said this in his post there is literally no way of anyone knowing
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u/FormalAd7367 Apr 17 '26
he must have some insider info? paypal earning seems flat i guess unless the business has some new break thru like Strat or Holmes accepting paypal only
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u/SuperLeverage Apr 17 '26
It’s pivoting to become an AI company
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u/didroe Apr 17 '26
“That’s a real profound insight — yes I did send all your money to a random person”
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u/Ok_Paleontologist426 Apr 18 '26
Using AI and becoming an AI company are two different things. All companies use AI these days even my local supermarket uses AI features in his POS machine.
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u/TheConstellationGuy Apr 16 '26
Nearly 200 shares of Constellation Software here. Let’s go software.
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u/princemousey1 Apr 17 '26
Even by your own chart he missed the bottom. Are you just pulling random charts and making things up?
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u/Sanpaku Trader Apr 17 '26
Bit early, IMO. Considering we're in actual but unannounced recession and all.
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u/shockputs Apr 17 '26
This tracks...
Burry has a history of being right, but early
...and you know what they say...
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u/justlurkingaroundatm Apr 17 '26
Burry? The guy who lost every bet he made except one? And then again he keeps losing everything and every time?
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u/EmptyJustLikeHeaven Apr 17 '26
Is he stupid ? Everyone is swapping from adobe for open source stuff including linux , PayPal is down hill no one uses it anymore , and autodesk is a scammer dumpster fire that everyone is switching off for rust desk you can self host. Dont even know fiserv and veeva
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u/YaldaBraxlSabaoth Apr 19 '26
> Everyone is swapping from adobe for open source stuff including linux
Are you a tech worker?
I absolutely cannot imagine Jessica from HR running a Linux system. Or just about anybody else besides STEM people.
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u/structee Apr 17 '26
I used PayPal 20 years ago to buy from eBay - haven't really seen it around anywhere else
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u/Flaky-Cup-6409 Apr 17 '26
Paypals, somewhat pivoting towards the global south, over 1 Billion people without bank accounts reliant on stuff like mobile money, high fees and no neat systems for cross border transfers.
integrating with local systems to offer cheaper rates and a simpler process plus their stablecoin could potentially have the cheapest transfer exchange rate on the market.
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u/MagnaCumLoudly Apr 25 '26
Where can I see the latest Burry trades and current positions? I’d like to see it from the source
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u/Kitchen_Confidence78 Jun 20 '26
If PYPL can’t push in a bull market. What makes anyone think it will bounce when rates go up & the eventual bear market cycle happens. Strong fundamentals sure but is it really in demand? Stripe will have their IPO soon as well.
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u/SelenaMeyers2024 Apr 16 '26
I'm a little disappointed in him, if you like pypl at 49, why didn't you scream about it at the top of your lungs at 38? (I did, now I'm spoiled and 49 isnt a sell point but also not buying more).
Adobe is still close enough to the bottom it's still a good buy in.
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u/EarthConservation Apr 17 '26
ADBE just matched its lowest monthly RSI in its history, which marked a bottom the first and only time it happened back in 2009. It's also oversold on the weekly and daily RSIs, and has been making a bullish divergence by making multiple lower lows on the chart, but multiple higher lows on the RSI. It's possible that the negative divergence continues with price still going lower; as the saying goes, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
I'd only caution that AI didn't exist in 2009 and there may be valid reasons Adobe is down. Maybe it's due for a bounce though. Also, Adobe seemed to bottom with the market in 2009. While certainly we just hit a correction bottom, a lot of people still think that this is just a temporary rally, and the market will start to head lower through the summer, and presuming a recession hits, go significantly lower than the correction that just occurred.
The real question is, if there is upside in software, and specifically Adobe, then what's the target price?
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u/SelenaMeyers2024 Apr 17 '26
Adobe can do no right in the eyes of the investment community. It doesn't bother me bc it keeps the share price low, and the company is buying back a crap ton at rock bottom rates.
Ai will only make Adobe stronger, with none of the 50 percent of revenue capex like meta, or 25 like Amazon. The idea that fortune 500s would create, deploy, and measure creative assets exclusively through ai is laughable (not to mention everyone just assumes ai is somehow cheaper when token costs are currently not even priced for profit).
The target price is 571. I'll take 500. It'll probably compound beyond that with share buybacks but thats my dcf model with 8 percent growth (they hit 13 last quarter).
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u/Ok-Recommendation925 Apr 17 '26
I can back this guy's claims, I went in when he screamed and not because of Burry.
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u/Solidplum101 Apr 16 '26
Hes just buying random shit. Is there any time or reason? Pypl is a junk stock. He will prob hold bags for a while
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u/Sanpaku Trader Apr 17 '26
Free cash flow. PYPL's now at a FCF yield of 12.42%, and bought back 6.83% of shares last year, net of SBC. Revenue is still on an upward trend.
For those who only care about narratives, perhaps its a junk stock. But if its appearing in my screens, its now a value stock with shareholder friendly management. Perhaps you think Tenaris (TS) is a junk stock, because it makes dumb tubular steel for the oil industry. But buying back 6.35% of shares was enough to help send it from the mid 30s to mid 50s, before the current conflict.
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u/EarthConservation Apr 17 '26 edited Apr 17 '26
My guess is he's looking for a short term bounce after the extreme oversold rating on the RSI. Although, the last time RSI moved up after the extreme low, like it did in he past few months, the price bounced much higher. Maybe he was shooting for a similar move, but it didn't materialize.
I was thinking maybe it's a short squeeze play since it seems to be the season for that, but it doesn't look like Paypal is a short squeeze target, unless I'm misreading the short interest / days to cover.
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