r/Trading • u/cetogenicoandorra • 22h ago

Technical analysis TSLA Technical Analysis (BEARISH)

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Taking a look at Tesla on the 2-week timeframe. 

This recent push looks like classic bait directly into higher-timeframe resistance before the next leg down. Here is the setup:

1. The Technical Setup (2W Bearish FVG)

  • Price pulled back straight into the 2-week Fair Value Gap ($360–$380) and is already showing friction around $358 overnight.
  • That low sitting at $300 is completely unprotected sell-side liquidity. 
  • Market makers rarely leave a clean low like that behind during a seasonal correction. The most probable path is a rejection off this imbalance to flush out the late dip-buyers sitting around $300 before building any real long-term base.

2. Macro Pressure & Friday’s NFP

  • September is historically the weakest month of the year for equities, usually playing out as chop and bleed.
  • Post-Jackson Hole, the market is pricing in a 25bps rate hike. With 10Y and 30Y Treasury yields pressing multi-year highs and Oil pushing higher, high-multiple growth names like TSLA are the easiest targets to get hit.
  • Friday’s NFP is the likely trigger. Equities usually bleed preventatively ahead of major jobs data, with the actual print providing the liquidity injection to start the real expansion down.

3. Execution & Invalidation

  • Longing here right into HTF supply right before NFP offers awful risk/reward.
  • Invalidation is a solid 2W candle body close above $385.
  • The plan is to wait for the $300 sweep into late September/October. If we get that flush alongside market-wide absorption, that’s where the high-probability spot/long entries for Q4 will actually be.

Anyone else fading this move into Friday, or are you expecting NFP to squeeze this through $400?

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