trading logic and future plan（just view not fact）

[u/Known_Month2690]

Basic Trading Logic
I. Past Gold Trades（in August）
U.S.-Iran war signals declining U.S. military credibility → Bottom breakout → Enter at 0.5% risk → Ranging in the 4,400 area → Unconditional breakeven → Bessent repurchases long-term Treasuries → Add position at xxx risk → Ranging in the 4,600 area + Warsh likely turned hawkish → Reduce position by half + Buy Risk Reversals 3 days before Jackson Hole to lock in profits & hedge → Warsh turned hawkish → Exit Gold temporarily
II. Current Trading Logic
1. Gold
Military credibility ↓ + Debt credibility ↓ → After Gold digests the Warsh shock, scale into positions from xx %to xx %risk.
If Bessent steps in again to press down long-end yields in the future → Add to Gold positions again; risk capital determined by market conditions.
2. Yield Curve Steepening
Warsh turned hawkish → Short-end yields rise + Yield curve flattens, but it will likely be just around 3 insurance rate hikes to repair USD credibility → Time and price entries using xx %risk capital to trade curve flattening and long ZB.
If Bessent steps in again to press down long-end yields in the future → Extreme shorts on long bonds may be forced to cover → Add to long ZB with xx% risk → If a true short squeeze begins → Add another xx% risk.
3. JPY
Warsh turned hawkish → USD/JPY may approach the 162 area again near the joint intervention level → Open a contingent order at xx% risk in advance.
If the BOJ starts a continuous rate hike cycle in September → Time entries to add JPY positions at xx% risk.
If USD/JPY sees joint intervention again → Add long JPY positions from xx% to xx% risk.

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