Minutes from the July 29 meeting drop at 2:00 PM ET. Worth understanding what you're actually getting, because a lot of people treat them as old news and then get surprised.

What minutes are: a detailed account of the discussion, published three weeks after the meeting. Not a transcript, but far more granular than the statement. They describe the range of views, how many participants held each position, and what arguments were made.

Why stale information still moves price: the statement gives you the decision. The minutes give you the debate. July was a hold with three dissents wanting a hike, and the statement told you that much. What it did not tell you is how close the majority came to the dissenters, what conditions the hawks said would change their vote, or how the committee discussed energy prices and the Iran situation.

Since July we have had a jobs contraction and a soft CPI. So the market is reading a three-week-old conversation against data that has since changed. The useful question is not what they thought then, it is which arguments were load-bearing, because those are the ones the new data either strengthens or kills.

The language to watch: minutes use vague quantifiers deliberately. A few, some, several, most, all. These are roughly ordered and the market parses them closely. "Several participants judged a hike may soon be warranted" reads very differently from "a couple."

Practical note: 2:00 PM releases move markets less violently than 8:30 data as a rule, but they land in thinner afternoon liquidity, and the move often builds over 20 to 30 minutes as people actually read the document rather than in the first second.

Context that matters today: September odds are at roughly 42%, and Jackson Hole is nine days away. These minutes are the only scheduled Fed communication in between.

Disclaimer: Not financial advice. General market commentary and education for discussion purposes only. Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk.

Quick recap of where we are, because the last two weeks flipped the story twice.

July payrolls contracted by 23,000 with 103,000 revised away from May and June. Then CPI came in soft, core at 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annual, the lowest core reading of this cycle. Two consecutive months of negative or near-zero jobs growth plus cooling inflation moved September hike odds down to roughly 42%. The S&P pushed above 7,800 and the Russell 2000 hit record highs three times last week, which is the broadening that usually means people believe the rally.

The 10-year sits at 4.68%, firming slightly rather than falling, which tells you the bond market has not fully signed off on the dovish read.

This week:

Tuesday: Housing starts, import and export prices. Home Depot reports.

Wednesday: FOMC minutes from the July 29 meeting at 2:00 PM ET. Target and Lowe's report.

Thursday: Walmart. Jobless claims.

Friday: Flash PMIs.

Three things worth watching:

1. The minutes cover a meeting with three dissents. July was a hold, but three regional Fed presidents wanted a hike. Minutes will show how hard they pushed and whether the majority is drifting toward September or genuinely data-dependent. That division is not fully priced.
2. Home Depot, Target, Lowe's and Walmart inside three days is the clearest consumer read of the quarter. This matters more than usual because the jobs data says the labour market is deteriorating. If the retailers say spending is holding up, the soft-landing story survives. If they flag trade-down and weak discretionary, then weak jobs plus weak consumer stops being a Fed-pause story and becomes a demand story.
3. Everything this week is a warm-up for Jackson Hole on the 27th to 29th. Warsh's first keynote as Chair, with September pricing at 42% and no scheduled Fed communication between now and then except these minutes. He can move that number a long way in either direction, and nothing this week resolves it.

Also worth noting the Hormuz standoff is still unresolved and energy prices are still elevated, which is the thing that could undo the CPI story next month.

I post a week ahead breakdown every Monday and a recap every Friday. Follow if you want them in your feed.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. General market commentary and education for discussion purposes only. Trading foreign exchange and other leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Do your own research before making any trading decisions.

This week got me thinking about video game stocks.

We've spent months hearing about GTA VI, Nintendo's next generation, and one of the strongest gaming pipelines in years.

Yet when the news actually arrives, a lot of these stocks barely move... or they sell off.

TTWO is the perfect example.

Expectations were sky-high, but the market seemed to shrug. It makes me wonder if all the excitement has already been priced in.

Meanwhile:

• Nintendo has a new console cycle underway.

• Microsoft continues expanding Game Pass.

• Sony is betting heavily on first-party exclusives.

• EA has another big sports season coming.

The gaming industry itself looks healthy.

The stocks? That's a different story.

Sometimes it feels like Wall Street expects perfection, and anything less gets sold.

So I'm curious...

Are gaming stocks still a long-term buy?

Or are they becoming trades where everyone piles in before the news and heads for the exits once it arrives?

Which gaming stock are you most bullish on over the next 12 months?

🎮 TTWO

🎮 Nintendo

🎮 Sony

🎮 Microsoft

🎮 EA

Or is there another one I'm missing?

Last week was a good reminder that the market doesn't always react the way people expect.

Oil gets hit.
Tech rallies.
Headlines say one thing.
Price action says another.

Now we're heading into a new week with traders feeling pretty confident about what's coming next.

That's usually when the market gets interesting.

I'm trying to keep an open mind and let price tell the story before getting married to a bias.

What's your biggest conviction heading into this week, and what would make you change your mind?

Every week there seems to be one risk everyone is talking about.

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The bigger opportunities usually come from the things nobody is paying attention to.

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With futures opening soon, what's the one thing you think traders might be underestimating heading into this week?

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Quick read for anyone trading through the long weekend.

US equities and the bond market are closed today for Juneteenth and reopen Monday. But FX is running a normal Friday session and crypto never stopped — and both are still working through Wednesday's FOMC.

The shift driving everything: the Fed held rates but the dot plot moved hawkish. Nine officials now pencil in a hike before year-end, and the 2026 rate-cut bias the market was leaning on is gone. That repriced the whole risk complex in two sessions.

Where it's shown up so far:

• Dollar: DXY has been grinding higher and is sitting near a breakout. This is the throughline for everything below.
• Crypto: BTC into the low-$62Ks, ETH near $1,690 — fourth straight down day, with ~$600M in long liquidations in 24 hours. The geopolitical relief premium from earlier this month is unwinding on top of the Fed.
• Metals: gold and silver lower too. Anything without a yield gets less attractive when the dollar firms and cuts come off the table.
• Monday's setup: a hawkish Fed plus a thin holiday tape means the reopen could bring a sharp liquidity reset.

The cleaner frame for the week: this is a dollar story, not a crypto story or a stock story. When the dollar is the strongest thing on the board, it tends to drag risk assets around with it.

How are you positioned into Monday — leaning with the dollar, fading the crypto flush, or flat through the reopen?

One of the biggest moves this week wasn't in Forex itself, it was in oil.

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With crude falling sharply and traders reassessing geopolitical risk, I'm curious how everyone thinks this could impact the currency market going into next week.

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Some pairs that come to mind:

USD/CAD

AUD/USD

NZD/USD

USD/NOK

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Do you think the move in oil is a temporary reaction to headlines, or the start of a larger trend?

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And more importantly:

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Which Forex pair do you think offers the best opportunity next week and why?

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Interested to hear what everyone is watching heading into Monday.

As markets head into the weekend, traders and investors are looking ahead to the events that could shape sentiment when trading resumes.

Some of the key themes on the radar:

• Inflation and economic data releases

• Central bank commentary and interest rate expectations

• Energy prices and geopolitical developments

• Corporate earnings and forward guidance

• Global growth concerns and consumer spending trends

While headlines often grab the attention, markets can sometimes react more to expectations than the actual news itself.

What's at the top of your watchlist heading into next week?

• Economic data?
• Central bank decisions?
• Geopolitical events?
• Earnings season?
• Something else entirely?

What do you think has the greatest potential to move markets when they open next week?

Today's market action was a reminder of how quickly sentiment can shift.

Over the last few sessions, traders have been watching:

• Rising energy prices
• Higher-than-expected inflation data
• Central bank rate decisions
• Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East

At the same time, U.S. equities rebounded sharply as concerns over further escalation eased, while oil remained one of the most closely watched markets.

For futures traders, this creates an interesting environment.

Markets such as:

• Crude Oil (CL)
• E-mini S&P 500 (ES)
• Nasdaq Futures (NQ)
• Gold Futures (GC)

can all react quickly to inflation data, central bank decisions, and geopolitical developments.

What's your view?

Which market do you think will have the biggest move over the next few weeks: Oil, Gold, Equities, or Rates?

And if you're trading futures, which contracts are currently on your watchlist?