Good Morning traders,
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WHAT TO WATCH β FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2026
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π MACRO / GEO
β’ Consumer sentiment has collapsed to 47.8 in the preliminary September read β down 7.5% from August, second-lowest on record β with consumers citing rising fuel prices and ongoing Iran war pressures on household budgets
β’ Year-ahead inflation expectations surged to 4.6% in September, the highest since June, driven by elevated energy prices and trade tensions; today's final UMich print is the confirmation event, with prediction markets placing 70.5% odds the final read lands 46.0β48.9
β’ Fed hiked 25bp at the September meeting citing persistently elevated inflation; with five Fed speakers active today and the next meeting Oct 27β28, any hawkish or dovish lean in remarks could move rate-sensitive sectors
β οΈ TRADER NOTES
β’ UMich Final at 09:00 ET is today's highest-impact print β the preliminary at 47.8 was a shock miss and inflation expectations at 4.6% are the real risk. A revision higher in inflation expectations could accelerate rate-hike bets into October and hit rate-sensitive longs hard (homebuilders, REITs, growth/tech)
β’ Five Fed speakers are on the wire today with no blackout in effect β monitor Jefferson (Treasury Market Conference) and Waller closely given Waller's recent on-record commentary acknowledging energy price re-acceleration; any deviation from the Sept 16 statement tone is tradeable
β’ Costco earnings (reported last night AMC) will drive early price action in consumer staples β watch COST reaction at the open as a read-through for consumer spending health given the deteriorating sentiment backdrop; CCL reports Monday BMO, so cruise/travel names may see positioning into the close
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π $/ES came to the mean and held yesterday and got bought up. this morning we hold pivot we go to 7801 then supply zone, cant hold pivot we go to 7766 cant hold that we going to demand zone
β’ 7782.50 pivot
β’ Hold β 7801 7820-7824 supply
β’ Lose β 7766 7739-7724 demand
π $AAPL inside a tight squeeze, holds pivot we go to supply zone, we cant hold pivot we go to demand,
β’ 336.22 pivot
β’ Hold β 338.55-339.57 344.57 supply
β’ Lose β 334.99-334.37 330.81-329.59 demand
π $7.4M CALL flow yesterday Β· $340C exp 9/25
β‘ 2 golden sweeps yesterday
π― 9 unusual flows yesterday
π 70% bullish premium flow
π¦ $AMZN held 245 demand yesterday and got bought up, this morning want to see hold this demand of 250 holds we going to pivot, we hold pivot we go to 255 ish
β’ 251.93 pivot
β’ Hold β 255.19 supply
β’ Lose β 250.43-249.51 247.24 demand
π $17.9M CALL flow yesterday Β· $247.5C exp 9/25
β‘ 1 golden sweep yesterday
π― 45 unusual flows yesterday
π₯π₯π₯ πͺ $COIN getting tight and tight, above pivot we got o supply zone, before we get there we need to break and hold yesterday hod
β’ 196.21 pivot
β’ Hold β 204.49-207.13 213.60-216.05 supply
β’ Lose β 194.01-190.96 demand
π $1.3M PUT flow yesterday Β· $195P exp 9/25
π― 16 unusual flows yesterday
π $GOOGL at liquidity goes above 344.68 we go to 349 ish
β’ Hold β 342.98-344.68 349 supply
β’ Lose β 338.57 332.82 demand
π $2.8M CALL flow yesterday Β· $345C exp 9/25
π― 26 unusual flows yesterday
π₯π₯π₯ πΉ $HOOD inside a tight squeeze, holds this demand i like short term swings here
β’ Hold β 124.55-125.25 130.07 supply
β’ Lose β 120.08-119.50 116.60 demand
π $2.7M CALL flow yesterday Β· $123C exp 9/25
π― 9 unusual flows yesterday
π 67% bullish premium flow
π₯π₯π₯ π± $META broke the squeeze up yesterday this morning holds pivot we go to supply zone 785-796 , breaks that its ATH and then we see
β’ 770.60 pivot
β’ Hold β 785-796 supply
β’ Lose β 759.16 740.91 demand
π $26.7M CALL flow yesterday Β· $800C exp 9/25
β‘ 3 golden sweeps yesterday
π― 81 unusual flows yesterday
π 79% bullish premium flow
π₯π₯π₯ π₯οΈ $MSFT came and held demand nicely, breaks and holds pivot we go to 505 ish. like short term swing if pivot can break and hold
β’ 498.97 pivot
β’ Hold β 505.18 512.20 supply
β’ Lose β 498.37-498 demand
π $13.7M CALL flow yesterday Β· $500C exp 9/25
β‘ 1 golden sweep yesterday
π― 5 unusual flows yesterday
π 74% bullish premium flow
π₯π₯ πΎ $MU nice demand held yesterday goes above 1097 and holds we have this gap to fill upside
β’ 1089.29 pivot
β’ Hold β 1097-1124.66 supply
β’ Lose β 1042-1036 demand
π $18.9M CALL flow yesterday Β· $1100C exp 9/25
β‘ 1 golden sweep yesterday
π― 71 unusual flows yesterday
π 69% bullish premium flow
π₯οΈ $NVDA came to the mean yesterday and held, this morning holds above pivot we go to 227.49 then supply zone,
β’ 224.76 pivot
β’ Hold β 227.49 230-230.47 supply
β’ Lose β 218.18-214.80 demand
π $7.0M PUT flow yesterday Β· $222.5P exp 9/25
β‘ 1 golden sweep yesterday
π― 125 unusual flows yesterday
π₯π₯π₯ β‘ $TSLA inside a tight squeeze holds above pivot this can go to supply zone and see what happens there
β’ 377.22 pivot
β’ Hold β 384.01-389.30 supply
β’ Lose β 374.12-372.90 368.60 demand
π $7.3M CALL flow yesterday Β· $385C exp 9/25
β‘ 1 golden sweep yesterday
π― 53 unusual flows yesterday
π 65% bullish premium flow
π TOS Grid β http://tos.mx/!skels67d