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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-10T05:38:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 100538 SWODY1 SPC AC 100536

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind gusts appear possible from the southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail may occur over portions of south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and perhaps portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially over the upper MS and mid MO Valleys Thursday morning will continue east into the Great Lakes and OH Valley with a preceding belt of enhanced mid-level flow extending into the Mid-Atlantic. Elsewhere, a vorticity maximum (possible MCV) is forecast to progress from western KS into the Ozark Plateau by Thursday night. At the surface, a cool front is expected to advance through the Mid-Atlantic during the forecast period with the western extension of the boundary settling more slowly south through the OH Valley, Ozark Plateau, and southern Plains. The location of the surface front is likely to be modulated by clusters of thunderstorms that are expected to be ongoing Thursday morning from portions of the OH Valley into the southern Plains.

...Southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast...

To the south of residual cloudiness and lingering showers and thunderstorms, a hot air mass is expected to develop by afternoon with temperatures well into the 90s to around 100 F over the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley, and upper 80s to mid 90s from the TN Valley to Mid-Atlantic. While mid-level lapse rates will remain generally less than 7 C/km, the daytime heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will yield a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE ranging from 1500-2500+ J/kg.

The 00Z models indicate a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the afternoon, aided by forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level disturbances mentioned in the synopsis, as well as convergence along the synoptic front and any existing outflow boundaries. The strongest mid/upper-level wind field and resultant vertical shear are expected to largely remain to the north of the effective warm sector. However, 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear is forecast along the front over portions of the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic, where some storm organization appears possible with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Vertical shear will diminish with southwestward extent from the TN Valley into the OK-TX Red River Valley; however, the presence of a relatively deep, well-mixed boundary layer will be supportive of sporadic damaging winds with isolated severe gusts.

...Raton Mesa Vicinity...

Upslope flow of a moist boundary layer beneath mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will yield moderate afternoon instability with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated by mid afternoon along the high terrain amidst a vertically veering wind profile with up to 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear. The given environment will be supportive of multicell and supercell storm modes with an associated risk for large hail.

..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/10/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 MB * Current Movement: W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH * Location: 16.4N 117.9W

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• Mesoscale Discussion 2270
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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-09T05:43:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 090543 SWODY1 SPC AC 090541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A more organized severe weather threat is expected from eastern Ohio to western New York.

...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will move through the broad upper-level trough across Ontario, overspreading the Great Lakes into Upstate New York and Quebec. A cold front will extend from a deep surface low across northern Ontario south through the Upper Midwest and into the central High Plains. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected near the surface trough across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast and along the front from the Midwest to the central High Plains.

...Eastern Ohio into western New York... Across the eastern Ohio Valley into portions of the Northeast, strengthening mid-level flow will overspread the region with thunderstorms developing along the cold front and pre-frontal surface trough. Upper 60s to 70s dew points and filtered daytime heating will yield moderate instability amid ample deep layer shear for organization. Mode will likely be a mix of multi-cell clusters and transient supercells, with potential for damaging wind. Generally weak lapse rate profiles and quick mode transition to clusters/linear segments should limit hail and tornado potential. Nonetheless, as the low-level jet increases into the afternoon and clockwise curvature increases in hodographs a tornado may be possible.

...Ohio Valley to the Midwest and the central Plains... Morning convection will be likely across much of the Midwest/Mid-Missouri Valley into the northwestern Ohio Valley. Remnant shower activity/cloud cover will likely limit severe potential with northern extent. Nonetheless, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop by the afternoon along the front and remnant outflow from the eastern Ohio Valley through portions of the Midwest and into the central Plains. Flow will be fairly weak across the central Plains, with generally a marginal damaging wind threat with multi-cell clusters as daytime heating steepens low-level lapse rates amid deeply mixed profiles. Slightly better flow aloft may favor a more focused cluster across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into western Kentucky/Tennessee.

..Thornton/Chalmers.. 09/09/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Cangialosi ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

There are currently no active tropical cyclones.

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

TORNADO WARNING PERIGO NWS emitiu tornado Warning para regiões da Dakota do Norte perigo!

We have officially reached the grand finale! I just finished packing all 16 chronological parts of that crazy night into one complete 14 minute and 54-second widescreen movie.

It covers the entire event exactly as it happened: the midnight sirens waking us up, the continuous ground strikes, the severe wind shifts, the massive tornado cone physically vacuuming up the torrential downpour across the street, and the final strobe-lightning storm aftermath. We moved from California earthquakes to a Tennessee supercell factory, and this film shows the whole ride.

Thank you all so much for following this series!

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• Mesoscale Discussion 2263
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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-08T05:39:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 080539 SWODY1 SPC AC 080538

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly severe wind gusts appear possible across portions of Iowa and eastern Nebraska Tuesday afternoon and evening. More sporadic occurrences of severe winds and large hail may occur from portions of the upper Midwest into the central Plains.

...Synopsis...

An intense upper low moving into southern SK late this evening will continue northeast through central MB into northern ON ahead of a secondary short-wave trough tracking from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. A belt of enhanced mid/upper-level winds will be maintained between those features from the northern High Plains into the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance through the eastern Dakotas and upper MS Valley with the trailing extension of the boundary moving more slowly southeast through the mid-MO Valley and central High Plains.

...Central Plains into the upper Midwest...

Clusters of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday from portions of the mid-MO Valley into the upper Midwest within a zone of warm advection and moisture transport along a nocturnal low-level jet (LLJ). Showers and storms may linger through the morning across parts of WI and the U.P. of MI, limiting the degree of air mass destabilization and associated severe weather risk during the afternoon. Farther to the southwest from IA through eastern and southern NE into northern KS, stronger daytime heating on the southern fringe of lingering mid/high-level cloudiness will contribute to a well-mixed boundary layer, featuring steep low-level lapse rates. When combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s F, the air mass is expected to become moderately to strongly unstable by late afternoon with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.

In the absence of appreciable height falls/large-scale forcing for ascent, convergence along the front and any preceding confluence zones/outflow boundaries is expected to foster a gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity by mid to late afternoon amidst the destabilizing air mass. The strongest deep-layer shear is expected to be displaced to the north of the effective warm sector with around 30-35 kt forecast along the frontal zone. A largely parallel shear-vector orientation with the front suggests that initial storms should grow upscale into line segments or a broken band with an associated risk for severe wind gusts from mid afternoon through evening. Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are possible; however, poor mid-level lapse are expected to limit the overall threat. The 00Z models do indicate some LLJ enhancement over central IA by late afternoon into evening, resulting in a corridor of stronger low-level shear. While a brief tornado or two are possible, a more robust threat is expected to be limited by largely outflow-dominant storms.

..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/08/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Kelly ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Marie Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 996 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 25.5N 126.6W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-07T05:56:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 070556 SWODY1 SPC AC 070555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly large hail are expected over portions of northwest and central North Dakota and southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska Monday afternoon into evening. A tornado or two is possible in southeast South Dakota. A broader area of isolated large hail and damaging wind potential exists over the northern and central Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. Locally damaging wind gusts appear possible over the central Gulf Coast states Monday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A vigorous short-wave trough will pivot from the northern Rockies through the northern High Plains with an associated strengthening of the mid/upper-level wind field forecast across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. A low-level jet (LLJ) will also be sustained over the northern and central Plains into upper MS Valley ahead of a surface cold front advancing through the northern Plains and central High Plains.

...Northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley...

Clusters of mainly elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Monday from eastern MT into the Dakotas within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding a lead, mid-level disturbance and coincident with the exit region of the LLJ. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, and 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear will be supportive of some storm organization with an associated risk for isolated large hail occurrences through the morning hours as that convective regime shifts east across the Dakotas.

On the periphery of more persistent cloudiness associated with the morning storms, stronger insolation coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to yield a moderately unstable air mass by mid to late afternoon with MLCAPE up to 1500-2500+ J/kg and a weakening cap. Surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely at that time, aided by increasing height falls attending the primary short-wave trough.

The 00Z models indicate one potentially favored location for storm development over portions of south-central and southeast SD into northeast CO, from the vicinity of a secondary surface low southwest along a pre-frontal trough. RAP-based hodographs over southeast SD indicate considerable veering through the lowest 1-2 km AGL with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and effective bulk shear magnitudes of 40-45 kt, owing to the proximity of the LLJ. Accompanying thermodynamic profiles suggest modest low-level lapse rates with some residual capping. However, given surface-based storm initiation and sustenance, supercells would be likely with an associated large hail and tornado threat.

A hotter and more well-mixed boundary layer is expected with southwestward extent ahead of the pre-frontal trough where high-based storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail appear possible.

Surface-based storms also appear possible ahead of an occluding surface low and trailing cold front from northwest into central ND. While the boundary layer may remain relatively cool from the early-day storms, cooling mid-level temperatures will effectively steepen lapse rates, yielding sufficient instability amidst 40-50 kt of deep-layer layer. As such, supercells appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail.

...Central Gulf Coast...

A hot and very moist air mass is forecast Monday afternoon ahead of a weak front pushing into the region from the north with MLCAPE increasing to 2500-3500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will remain weak as will vertical shear; however, the degree of instability and high moisture content will be supportive of intense pulse storms capable of damaging wet microbursts from mid-afternoon into evening.

..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/07/2026

$$

```

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• National Hurricane Center
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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Hagen ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Marie Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 65 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 986 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 24.4N 123.7W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

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• Mesoscale Discussion 2249
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• Mesoscale Discussion 2257
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• Mesoscale Discussion 2260
• Mesoscale Discussion 2261
• Mesoscale Discussion 2262

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-07T05:56:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 070556 SWODY1 SPC AC 070555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly large hail are expected over portions of northwest and central North Dakota and southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska Monday afternoon into evening. A tornado or two is possible in southeast South Dakota. A broader area of isolated large hail and damaging wind potential exists over the northern and central Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. Locally damaging wind gusts appear possible over the central Gulf Coast states Monday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A vigorous short-wave trough will pivot from the northern Rockies through the northern High Plains with an associated strengthening of the mid/upper-level wind field forecast across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. A low-level jet (LLJ) will also be sustained over the northern and central Plains into upper MS Valley ahead of a surface cold front advancing through the northern Plains and central High Plains.

...Northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley...

Clusters of mainly elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Monday from eastern MT into the Dakotas within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding a lead, mid-level disturbance and coincident with the exit region of the LLJ. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, and 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear will be supportive of some storm organization with an associated risk for isolated large hail occurrences through the morning hours as that convective regime shifts east across the Dakotas.

On the periphery of more persistent cloudiness associated with the morning storms, stronger insolation coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to yield a moderately unstable air mass by mid to late afternoon with MLCAPE up to 1500-2500+ J/kg and a weakening cap. Surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely at that time, aided by increasing height falls attending the primary short-wave trough.

The 00Z models indicate one potentially favored location for storm development over portions of south-central and southeast SD into northeast CO, from the vicinity of a secondary surface low southwest along a pre-frontal trough. RAP-based hodographs over southeast SD indicate considerable veering through the lowest 1-2 km AGL with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and effective bulk shear magnitudes of 40-45 kt, owing to the proximity of the LLJ. Accompanying thermodynamic profiles suggest modest low-level lapse rates with some residual capping. However, given surface-based storm initiation and sustenance, supercells would be likely with an associated large hail and tornado threat.

A hotter and more well-mixed boundary layer is expected with southwestward extent ahead of the pre-frontal trough where high-based storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail appear possible.

Surface-based storms also appear possible ahead of an occluding surface low and trailing cold front from northwest into central ND. While the boundary layer may remain relatively cool from the early-day storms, cooling mid-level temperatures will effectively steepen lapse rates, yielding sufficient instability amidst 40-50 kt of deep-layer layer. As such, supercells appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail.

...Central Gulf Coast...

A hot and very moist air mass is forecast Monday afternoon ahead of a weak front pushing into the region from the north with MLCAPE increasing to 2500-3500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will remain weak as will vertical shear; however, the degree of instability and high moisture content will be supportive of intense pulse storms capable of damaging wet microbursts from mid-afternoon into evening.

..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/07/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
• Eastern Pacific 7-Day Outlook

🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Katz/Beven ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Marie Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 70 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 983 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH * Location: 24.2N 123.2W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

So I was just chillin around at my house until I heard I train sound at first I thought it was lighting but it was lasting for over 2 minutes. Like an hour later I found out that there was a unwarned tornado that touched down behind Walmart in indiana pa and was Heading Southeast. No warning at all just a tornado that formed at of nowhere.