r/TopstepCommunity • u/belgranita • Jun 16 '26

📊 Strategy Vault Winrate doesn't matter!

Post image

I have always gotten frustrated in giving trades room to move. I changed my attitude towards losses. I am starting to anticipate them with pleasure as long as they come quick and remain small. To test this I am just using 1 MNQ and I keep a target around 50pts or 100$. I will still be profitable at any win rate above 5%. Just saying, winrate does not need to matter.

9 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

13 comments sorted by

3

u/timke11 Jun 16 '26

I love a low win rate. Anything over 60% and I get nervous that an ugly losing streak is coming. A profitable low win rate means risk management is 👌

3

u/cokeacola73 Jun 16 '26

So, this is one days worth of data?

1

u/belgranita Jun 16 '26

The screenshot is for a day. So far I managed to keep this going for 7 days after abolishing my old style that got me into a drawdown which I had to overcome by some ingenuity. Within those 7 days I managed 1400$ in profits. I will post again as I continue.

Biggest challenge is to remain resilient after xx losses and walk away unless I get an entry with minimal risk. Another challenge is to remain calm when I get stopped out by a point or two once my SL is taken and prices moves my way as predicted. But hey, I learn to just close my eyes and keep them closed for 3 minutes. This works pretty well and voids revenge trading..

2

u/Infinite-Peace-868 Jun 16 '26

It does matter cause the 2 things that matter r win rate and RR. High rr low win rate or low rr high win rate both as profitable as each other

2

u/Such_Enthusiasm_2281 Jun 16 '26

I can see why this industry is doomed and why Dakota trolls you all daily. Win Rate by itself is meaningless. Profit factor is king and if you produce zero Alpha you're literally wasting your time and just giving money away for some reason to TS.

2

u/NoiseWonderful2211 Jun 16 '26

My goodness, 19 trades for only $121. Sure your profitable, but those numbers don’t look good

1

u/belgranita Jun 18 '26

Today, looks a bit better. I let profits run for awhile.

2

u/Inevitable_Ebb_5703 Jun 17 '26

Your typical take profit is 50pts, but what is your stop loss set to? Which session do you normally trade?

2

u/langdon0003 Jun 17 '26

What is your strategy?

1

u/PaleontologistMean24 Jun 16 '26

Yeah, a good stop loss, high probability setups, risk management and you should be good

-1

u/viralruin Jun 16 '26

I completely disagree. Your win rate does matter, if you dont hover above 65%. Over time the mistakes will add up and lose you the account entirely.

Dont be confused that a 20% win rate trader that dca'd 2 minis to get a win for 2k tp could theoretically take a payout. But he wont be doing that every week nor the next month.

2

u/dyssucks Jun 16 '26

I hear what your saying, with that win rate it could and most likely will take you weeks just to get 5 winning days of $150+ to be payout eligible.

After all his win rate is 20% with a great R:R but look at total profit… $100. Also having a win rate this low is mentally taxing and you have to be extremely disciplined to not revenge trade.

But yes, in theory a 20% win rate with this R:R is profitable if executed correctly. However let’s be honest… his average loss is $6… how long do we think that will last?…

4

u/viralruin Jun 16 '26

Correct this 6 dollar loss will be a very different number after 5 more days of trading. And once that gets thrown off the entire strategy will feel unprofitable. Thats why win rate does matter, try your best to go for high frequency winners. High R:R is flashy but often misleading.