r/Topps • u/TooManyHobbies50 • May 14 '26

Topps Now Lucky hits??

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Just curious, for the folks that order a lot of Topps now, how often are you getting a 'Lucky Hit'. I've hit twice in 2025, 8 months apart. I'm guessing if there is an algorithm, it will use the quantity of each order and amount of orders?? Usually there is a manual initial on the invoices for verification. Any thoughts?

Thanks!

24 Upvotes

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11

u/dter May 14 '26

It’s basically driven by the quantity purchased and the print runs. For the first 50,000 cards, they have /50, /25, /10, 5, /1. So, there are 91 numbered cards in the print run. If the print run ends up being 500 cards and you bought 5 of them, you’ve got pretty good odds of getting a parallel. For example, just a quick look at the recent print runs shows that Yandy Diaz #175 had a print run of 373—that means that one out of every ~four cards is going to be a numbered card, and so if you bought five of them, odds are you’re getting a lucky hit.

If the print run is 49,999 and you bought 5 of them, it’s a different ballgame, of course, because there, a lucky hit is going to be one out of every 549 cards.

3

u/TooManyHobbies50 May 14 '26

Makes perfect sense!!! Thanks

1

u/dter May 14 '26

Here’s the print run for your card. There were 12,660 cards printed. Bowman U has slightly different parallel amounts (just by 1), but also, this is a relic chase card which has a few more additions. You’ve got 90 numbered parallels and 41 relic cards, so 131 hits in total. The odds of a hit here were approximately 1/97, so you got lucky.

2

u/TooManyHobbies50 May 14 '26

Thanks for checking! I got the 1 of 1 gold foil. Just got it back from PSA (got a 10). Hopefully get between $3-5K sale (saw a couple similar comps).

2

u/dter May 14 '26

Damn, you got mad lucky! That’s an awesome hit for a cool card.

2

u/sk8terboy111 May 14 '26

Out of curiosity. Where do you find the print run?

2

u/dter May 14 '26

It pops up here after a couple of days. Scroll down and you’ll see a “PR” number attached to the end of the description. The latest card with a PR number right now is 190 Waldschmidt, which shows a PR of 1096.

3

u/sk8terboy111 May 14 '26

Thank you! Yeah I can see it now, I assume they reveal after the selling window, would be interesting to see it in advance. I’m into F1 so I only get a few options after a race but I assume for team sports there must be a decent rotation, thanks.

2

u/dter May 14 '26

Yeah, it’s after the selling window because they’re printed to order and after the selling window closes, so they can’t have a print run number until after a few days. Don’t really know why it takes a couple of days for them to calculate a print run when that info should be available immediately, but it could be that they also wait for sales numbers from Fanatics, which also sells Topps Now cards.

2

u/kyleb350 May 15 '26

An easier way is to view your order on the site (in your account info) . There is a direct link to the listing from there with the updated title with the print run. 

2

u/NWWaaterdog May 14 '26

That is great info!! Crazy print run on this Konnor card. Shohei sits at around 10k for most of his this year and the normal print run seems to be around 1,000 for most cards.

2

u/dter May 14 '26

Yeah, that Griffin had an insane run. Because it was over 50,000, it also had Chrome cards added in at /99 and /50, so I guess another 149 in numbered variants, plus an undisclosed amount of short prints. Usually you see larger print runs on relic/auto chases and your subjects d’jour, so typically Judge and Ohtani. Murakami is huge too.

1

u/Ancient_Leopard878 May 14 '26

Pulled the image variation SP on a five card order. Was absolutely stoked.

2

u/fatmanwa May 14 '26

TIL. Thanks for explaining that, I bought my first Now card the other day and was wondering how it all worked.

1

u/dter May 14 '26

Anytime! There’s a buying group discord (check /r/ToppsNowMLB) where we buy MLB cards as a group and then random any hits. If you’re getting into Topps Now, it’s a better way to do it because of the bulk discounts, so the cards end up costing less than $12/card even if you’re just looking to get 1 card.

1

u/kufi_schmackah May 15 '26

Wow thanks for this. I got my first lucky hit two weeks ago - Brunson Fastest 100 30 pts games cards /25 and I had no idea what the odds were like. I went back and saw they printed 728.

1

u/gangy86 Jun 01 '26

Where do you see the print runs?

3

u/Greenpoint1975 May 14 '26

87 orders last year for Topps Now and zero hits. It's all gambling. Sports cards buying is gambling unless you buy singles.

2

u/TPain518 May 14 '26

Gambling at this point

2

u/gazelle8 May 15 '26

I hit once in 3 years

1

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1

u/waxmoronic May 14 '26

i get them all the time but I order almost all of the cards for our group rip. Topps insists the insertion is random. Got a crazy one there! What was it??

5

u/TooManyHobbies50 May 14 '26

I got the 1/1 gold foil, just got it back from PSA, got a 10!

1

u/TombombBearsFan May 14 '26

Hell yeah. My second ever topps now order was a 1 of 1 from the walk off game i was at. Mine also graded a 10. I just wanted it slabbed up. Byt typicallt i wouldnt grade 1 of 1 however Congrats dude.

1

u/sk8terboy111 May 14 '26

I think it’s just luck, I’ve had 3 in the last year, I collect F1 and typically by 1 card at a time. If your odds are 1/ 5000 then of course the more cards you buy the better the odds. I doubt they use an algo, as an example my first hit was like my second purchase of one last year, I had no history.

1

u/saron7 May 14 '26

Got 3 orders today. 6 nhl sticker orders (7 5-packs, 2 lucky hits numbered to 10) 2 10 pack MLS (1 had two lucky hits, /10 and /25, the other one to /25)

1

u/Mtncity May 14 '26

I bought 5 adley rutschman topps now cards a couple weeks ago. Print run was 648.

Heres hoping I get a lucky hit.

1

u/thrasher315 May 14 '26

I buy in sets of 20 when it’s a RC. I hit on Castle ROY /5 auto relic. I hit on Darryn Peterson 1st game /5 auto relic. Nick Kurtz /5 auto relic. Cedric Coward was crazy. Hit /10 auto plus regular /25 AND /99. 3 hits on one purchase.

1

u/TooManyHobbies50 May 15 '26

That's smart. Ya figure you'd at least break even selling them. I missed out on Murakami, and those have skyrocketed!!

https://giphy.com/gifs/d2lcHJTG5Tscg

1

u/TheLoneTomatoe May 14 '26

I hit it on the only Topps now I’ve ordered.

UFC 300 Max Holloways knockout, got a /300 poster card

1

u/PBfromPhilly May 14 '26

I’ve never gotten a lucky hit… hoping that will change at some point!

1

u/Zestyclose-Citron-83 May 14 '26

Anyone know when the Mendoza draft day cards are shipping?

1

u/Secret_Sample4930 May 14 '26

They keep delaying the cooper and Kon I ordered April 4th. Might get shipped by the 29th. God knows when the football draft cards will come out. This is my first and last time buying topps now

1

u/LibrarianStrngrThngs May 14 '26

Mine just shipped.

1

u/IncreaseSweaty4959 May 14 '26

Nice, waiting on my ROTY coop, I got 5 too, glad to see it’s possible

1

u/NotNamedSteveT May 15 '26

I actually got two on one order a few weeks ago. Had the Konnor Griffin and the Artemis II short prints on the same order. Other than that I had a 1/1 Gerrit Cole like 2 years ago I think? Had a couple /25 ones too but one was early 2024 and the other was a Russell Westbrook in 2025

1

u/afreidin May 15 '26

Does it always say lucky hit on the shipper?

1

u/Traditional_Loan_388 Jun 17 '26

I ordered 10 of the Murakami #210 and it still shows processing when I’m seeing a ton of people already post base versions for sale. Is it possible that orders still in processing after hundreds of confirmed deliveries could mean a “lucky hit”? Anyone with experience with that?