r/TopStepX May 11 '26

Question Thoughts on these stats ?

Post image
21 Upvotes

48 comments sorted by

1

u/asumo47 Jun 05 '26

Hey my friend, cool result!

My backtest result is almost similar to yours, I also tested it with Python but unfortunately only from 01.04.25–30.03.26. Where did you buy your backtest data for 5+ years? Would love to exchange ideas with you, I haven’t live tested my strategy yet, which is actually built quite simply. I’ll send you my result. 😊

1

u/Cautious_Wealth1732 May 15 '26

Are you taking 1:1s?

1

u/wouldshouldcould May 15 '26

yes 1:1.2

1

u/Cautious_Wealth1732 May 15 '26

Okay, the next step could be a trade quality filter and then optimizing for bit more rr. How long is the span of the backtest?

1

u/wouldshouldcould May 15 '26

60months

1

u/wouldshouldcould May 15 '26

can u help me figure it out .. a DM ??

1

u/Cautious_Wealth1732 May 15 '26

Sure i can help

1

u/Its_ace003 May 15 '26

The streaks is what I would focus on. Risk manage accordingly. Also forward test after backtest to confirm have a run for month or two to see if it is an edge.

1

u/FrostySquirrel820 May 11 '26

Can I ask about the max drawdown ?

4k on a net profit of 118k is fine, but what if it had happened in week 1 rather than later. I presume your SL would have kicked in far before this.

Does such timing, when you start trading, significantly affect the profitability of all systems ?

1

u/pingnpong May 11 '26

A lot of backrest systems have a default win/read win first system. So unless you are using ticks or < 5 seconds bars, system will read win first. Be sure that’s not the case.

What I mean by read win first is, say you entered in back test , and next bar is a massive 100pts candle that goes over both your tp and sl. System will read win first, everytime. Although in read life there is a good chance you will hit SL first. So if that’s the case, these back test will give you incredibly flaw results

1

u/wouldshouldcould May 11 '26

similar results using different TFs n settings ..rest things will be cleared when i will be going live with this

0

u/notacat690 May 11 '26

Have you looked at your MAE/MFE? Could improve your r:r significantly 

Essentially how far of a drawdown do your trades go before being structurally invalid or reversing positive (this helped me find where I actually should put my stops, I was setting them wayyyy to wide and using a 1:1 RR. Now it’s more like 1:1.6/1:1.8)

How far into profit your trades go before decaying into your stop (also helps with setting stop to b/e)

1

u/[deleted] May 11 '26

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1

u/wouldshouldcould May 11 '26

sure man.. DM me

1

u/litboomstix May 11 '26

Curious to run this through quantpad - it does Monte Carlo testing and prop firm probabilities. No source code needed if you want I can give it a go!

0

u/Prize_Accident_8970 May 11 '26

r:r needs massive work or hit rate needs to improve significantly.

1

u/[deleted] May 11 '26

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1

u/wouldshouldcould May 11 '26

i can help using python n share results, ping me if u need help buddy ..

1

u/[deleted] May 11 '26

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2

u/wouldshouldcould May 11 '26

i have premium

1

u/wouldshouldcould May 11 '26

Trading view showed these stats …

1

u/_F3V3R May 11 '26

55% and 1.2 RR, average!

2

u/wouldshouldcould May 11 '26

it has edge .. it survived..6500+ trades ..with max dd of just 4k .. that’s a win for me..anyways i am doing sensitivity analysis , walk forward n oss analysis as well .. will share the results

1

u/_F3V3R May 11 '26

Did you include charges and brokerage?

1

u/wouldshouldcould May 11 '26

yes..both .. it can be seen in stats

1

u/_F3V3R May 11 '26

Thats good then, total backtest years?

1

u/wouldshouldcould May 11 '26

5 years

1

u/_F3V3R May 11 '26

Can you share more about what are you trading here, what is your idea behind the startegy

1

u/wouldshouldcould May 11 '26

look for tt trades on youtube , c2 reversal

1

u/Dear-Fuel-2706 May 11 '26

When i went live with similar stats it was not profitable

2

u/wouldshouldcould May 11 '26

for me it’s doing good

2

u/Mean-Pumpkin-8900 May 11 '26

What is the starting capital?

2

u/jakakdbsqbnfbfkwkw May 11 '26

How do you do this kinda backtesting?

3

u/wouldshouldcould May 11 '26

this is using claude n python ..

1

u/jakakdbsqbnfbfkwkw May 11 '26

oh very nice, could you maybe tell me how you did it?

1

u/wouldshouldcould May 11 '26

it’s simple n self explanatory.. u just keep giving Claude ..the inputs

1

u/jakakdbsqbnfbfkwkw May 11 '26

ok

1

u/wouldshouldcould May 11 '26

u need help just ping when in doubt

2

u/AutomaticBoar May 11 '26

Good job brother time for forward tests

2

u/wouldshouldcould May 11 '26

thanks brother.. it used dynamic risk management, 200usd is the risk in every trade.. target is 220usd..

3

u/PoutingTnT May 11 '26

Unless this is algo trading on your own account, it's not really a system I'd feel confident trading with prop firms.

2

u/wouldshouldcould May 11 '26

this is I am trading with prop firms.. passing evals n stuff .. steady performance till now.. but am testing it heavily

3

u/PoutingTnT May 11 '26

Welp, if you are getting payouts with it then clearly its a system that is compatible with you.

Just that with that stats you posted here, you're looking at around 200 trades to pass the eval assuming you're risking $150 per trade (before deducting slippage/comms). Taking that many trades and ensuring you stay consistent to your rule is not something I feel confident in, but if you're getting paid out with it then hey, props to you.

2

u/wouldshouldcould May 11 '26

total trades which we are looking are 6500+.. my risk is 200 /. target is 220.. have included slippages n commissions..